How Giants can overcome heavily-favored Dodgers once again

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The statement from Dave Roberts seemed bold at first, but when you really think about it, it's not nearly as daring as something that was said in the Giants clubhouse last spring. 

The veterans on that 2021 team made a National League West title the goal for a group that was picked by just about everyone to finish a distant third -- or worse -- in the division. It's a goal that was far more outlandish on paper than Roberts insisting the Dodgers will win the World Series this season. The only difference is the Giants didn't say it publicly.

The goal, it turned out, was reachable. Sure, it took a historic 107-win season and all 162 games, but the Giants did win the NL West, getting back on the national radar as a contender. 

A few months later, they reported to spring training as the pick to finish ... far, far behind the Dodgers. 

The Giants have seen the projections, they have heard the noise, they have checked in on PECOTA, and they once again have decided that they simply don't care. You won't find any of them publicly predicting a World Series title or talking too often about the NL West race, but they do expect to be in the mix for both. 

"I think we expect to compete, to win," Brandon Belt said last month. "We expect to go out there and win the division now. I don't know if we're going to win 107 games, but I think (the front office) put together a team that can go out there and compete with the best of them. I don't think it's going to be a whole lot different from last year. I think we're going to out there to win this thing. That's what we're focused on."

Belt spoke from the corner locker in the clubhouse at Scottsdale Stadium, a subtle sign of just how much has changed since last October, and why nobody will pick the Giants to again finish a game ahead of the Dodgers. That locker used to belong to Buster Posey, but Belt is now the longest-tenured Giant, followed closely by Brandon Crawford. 

Posey will be impossible to replace, but the Giants believe they've filled most of their other holes. Kevin Gausman is in Toronto, but Carlos Rodon might be better if he's healthy. The Giants get a full season of ace Logan Webb, too. Alex Cobb fills out what should be one of the strongest rotations in the National League.

"They're really strong. One through five, I think our five could be our one," catcher Joey Bart said. "It's really spaced out well and it doesn't seem like there are any guys that are not as strong as the others. I know for opposing teams there's not going to be any easy days."

A bullpen that led the majors in ERA last year returns everyone, with the added upside of a full year of Camilo Doval and the potential emergence of Kervin Castro. 

The only major lineup addition was Joc Pederson, but others are in line for bigger roles. Kris Bryant found his massive deal elsewhere, but the Giants plan to give Darin Ruf an everyday job. Donovan Solano is a Cincinnati Red, but team officials are confident that 26-year-old Thairo Estrada is ready to break out, becoming a middle-infield version of Mike Yastrzemski and LaMonte Wade Jr. 

Wade was being counted on to potentially hit leadoff, but instead he recently provided a reminder of where this can all go wrong. He'll miss Opening Day and Evan Longoria will miss the first six weeks of the season. Tommy La Stella's timeline is unclear as he recovers from Achilles surgery. 

The Giants have built more unheralded depth than just about anyone, but it pales in comparison to what has happened in Los Angeles. The Dodgers lost Corey Seager to the Texas Rangers and responded by adding Freddie Freeman, the NL MVP just two years ago. They brought Clayton Kershaw and Chris Taylor back and filled the Seager hole by simply sliding one MVP candidate -- Trea Turner -- back to short and another -- Max Muncy -- over to second. 

The Dodgers might have the most dangerous lineup in recent MLB history, and if they get anything out of Cody Bellinger and Gavin Lux, they'll be downright terrifying. How do the Giants come close to competing with that? By sticking to their plan.

The talk this spring was not of keeping up with that Dodgers lineup or out-pitching them. Gabe Kapler made sure the focus was where it was last year, and the year before. He talks just about every day of having good processes, training well, and finding incremental gains. He did it Thursday, in fact. 

"Every time we go out on the field, every time we're doing a drill, a simulated game, we're trying to find the value at the margins," Kapler said. "We're trying to ask ourselves, 'Is that the best way we can prepare? Is that the best way we can practice?' The theme of this camp was every day our practices should be crisper, more efficient and more effective than they were the day before. It doesn't mean you're constantly raising the bar for yourself and never celebrating the small victories along the way -- I think you continue to do that, but we're really focused on the work that we can control."

There was a massive talent deficit last year, too, but the Giants bridged it by playing good, consistent baseball every single day. They do not have anywhere close to the star power of the Dodgers, or even the Padres for that matter, but they have found a way to raise their floor. There wasn't a starting pitcher on staff who rated below league average and they became the second team in MLB history to have six relievers make at least 50 appearances and post an era under 3.00. 

Of the dozen position players who got 250 at-bats for the Giants, only the since-DFA'd Alex Dickerson finished with an OPS+ of below 100. Seven different hitters were at least 10 points above that league-average mark, and Crawford, Belt and Darin Ruf all came in above 140. 

To compete, the Giants will need similar seasons from those three, and a similarly effective, collective approach from the rest.

Crawford knows it won't be easy. On his first day of camp, he pointed out that you start over every spring, but he feels that he and others have laid a "pretty good foundation" to keep it going. 

Crawford was the best player on last year's shocking 107-win team and one of the leaders of the push to take back the NL West. He has watched the Dodgers win the division just about his entire big league career, and he's not at all the type to loudly state that the Giants are once again going to shock the world. But perhaps that's not what's needed, anyway. 

RELATED: Bart picked to join Webb on Opening Day

While the Giants set a bold goal last spring, they put it aside once the season started, taking a day-by-day approach. Crawford pointed out that handling raised expectations is easier when you don't worry too much about them. 

"I think the last couple of years, there's been a pretty good, positive vibe coming into spring training, and excitement for the season. I think that's the same as it's been," he said. "Thinking about trying to be as good as last year or anything like that just adds pressure and expectations. I feel like we did really well last year by not having distractions like that. We want to just keep that positive vibe and have fun."

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