Kornacki's model gives Giants great odds at NL West title


The Giants, against all odds, are in contention for an NL West division title with 15 games remaining in the regular season. 

Who could have seen that coming? 

Currently holding onto a game-and-a-half lead over their rival Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West, the Giants (as of Thursday afternoon) are the favorites to win the division. 

That's right, Steve Kornacki's model gives the Giants a 76.4-percent chance of winning the division. 

"Good news if you're a Giants fan," Kornacki said on Giants Pregame Live. "The computer model likes the Giants chances to emerge here. (There's) a 76.4-percent chance of the Giants hanging on to win the division. Why that rosy of an outlook? One thing it has to do with is where both teams are playing their games for the rest of the season.

"The Giants have looked pretty good at home and on the road, it hasn't made much of a difference for them. The Dodgers though, have a little bit of a difference though between their home record and their road record. (They are) 52-23 at home this year, they've only won 42 games on the road. The majority of their games, nine of their final 15 games are going to be on the road. In fact, the next nine games are going to be on the road for the Dodgers."

The battle for the NL West likely will go down to the final days of the 2021 regular season. 

With the Dodgers playing nine of their final 15 games on the road, the Giants play nine of their final 15 games at home, the exact opposite of the Dodgers.


San Francisco is slated to face both the Colorado Rockies and Arizona Diamondbacks, two very beatable opponents with losing records, before closing out the regular season. Playing against the Atlanta Braves and San Diego Padres will be challenging, though. 

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The Dodgers, who also face both the Rockies and the D-Backs before closing out the season, will face the Cincinnati Reds, Padres and NL Central-leading Brewers. Three tough opponents, compared to the Giants' two. 

A 76.4-percent chance of winning the NL West over the Dodgers might sound surprising, but when the remaining schedules are broken down, the Giants certainly have the advantage. 

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