Ray Ratto

Week 5 is when false positives start to become true in football

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USATSI

Week 5 is when false positives start to become true in football

Week 5 is allegedly the week when football starts to take some sort of comprehensible shape, but the truth is that hope doesn’t actually thrive or die until Week 7.

You can pretend a 1-3 team still has dreams and aspirations and must-win situations, but if you’re 1-5, you really don’t. Even allowing for last year’s other Los Angeles team, which started 0-4 but wasn’t eliminated from playoff contention until Week 17, the first four games are all within everyone’s hope/despair margin for error.
 
But there is a point at which games start making sense in a non-granular way, which is to say conclusions can be drawn that those upon whom those conclusions apply can no longer object. In other words, granular starts becoming non-granular pretty quickly now.
 
Example: If San Francisco  (-3½, for those of you with such a mind for that kind of thing) and its sub-optimal defense cannot contain the horrific Arizona offense, the San Francisco defense cannot be saved. This is a statement game, in that at day's end you will be able to state what unit is not very good and which is irredeemably bad.
 
Example: If Jacksonville (+3) cannot make Patrick Mahomes sweat any more than Denver did last week, then defense is dead and every game is Big Ten basketball. And Mahomes is the new Dan Marino.
 
Example: If Oakland (+5) only allows Los Angeles five plays over 25 yards in America’s Neutral Site Stadium, they’ll be below league average. This will not mean they win, but it may mean that you never can tell exactly when Los Angeles is going to channel its San Diego roots the only way it can. In short, you'll be guessing on whether this is a hunch rout or just Los Angeles hunched over again trying to spit up a game they should have won by halftime.
 
Example: If you watch Baltimore (-3) play Cleveland Sunday morning, you may be watching Hue Jackson’s last game. Also, you’re almost certainly in a Cleveland bar and may want to keep your fandom down.
 
Example: If you think the winner of Minnesota (+3)-Philadelphia is a conference title game contender, you may be four weeks out of the time stream, which means you may be Doctor Who.
 
Example: If you like Green Bay (+1) at Detroit, you have learned how to bet against the public, and you will thrive.
  
Example: If you watch Atlanta (+3) at Pittsburgh, you will understand why anyone who complains about the dirt infield at the Coliseum is an idiot. Heinz Field has dreadful turf, and it rained throughout Syracuse-Pitt Saturday. Also, you will know that the dirt will have been sodded by the time the Raiders play there again, which is bad news for Oakland (31-24 on God’s own dirt since 1995, 53-76 on Oakland’s own grass).
 
Example: If New York (+1) strikes you as a good investment against Denver, you will have no problem finding someone to take your action, and that’s because you’re crazy. It’s the worse New York team, remember?
 
Example: If you thought Jacksonville-Tennessee was tedious two weeks ago, you’re going to want to hate Tennessee (-5½, 39½)-Buffalo. That is, unless it is really true that a healthy Marcus Mariota is the difference between a modern offense and what it is the Titans usually do. 
 
Example: If you think Cincinnati (-6) should have no trouble with freshly exposed Miami, you’re playing with fire, because even these new offensive-line-enriched Cincinnati is just the Miami with less national interest.
 
Example: If you’re hoping that Seattle (+7½) is going to teach Los Angeles a lesson in the Great Northwest, you’re forgetting that Seattle isn’t Seattle any more, and it’s going to be years before it is Seattle again. Pray for Russell Wilson. You know he will be.
 
Example: New York  (+6½) is a consistent ratings draw, but its game at Carolina is scheduled only to remind Bay Area fans that theirs is not the worst two-team dumpsite.
 
Example: Dallas (+3) at Houston is only on the schedule to remind you that Jerry Jones has been the worst thing to happen to football since the last lockout, and Bob McNair isn’t close behind. They are just two teams who always think they’re going somewhere but end up in the same part of the hamster wheel as always.
 
And Example: If you believe the first four weeks of the season actually can tell you some things about the future, expect Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas of New Orleans (-6, 52½) to crush Washington by themselves. Washington is lousy agaimst the run and the oither team's best receiver, and Kamara and Thomas are big-time badasses in each category. 

Why 2019 will be the Year of Real Estate for Bay Area sports teams

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AP

Why 2019 will be the Year of Real Estate for Bay Area sports teams

There are lots of ways 2019 can go, sporty-wise, and this won’t be one of those insipid end-of-year columns predicting anyone’s future, or making resolutions for them, or even pretending its actually 2020 and looking back at 2019. The present is difficult enough for all of us, as you might have guessed by reading and listening to us all these years.
 
No, here you will get something you actually know will be true. Oh, it’ll still be insipid, but you can’t have everything, at least not at these prices. So here goes next to nothing.
 
In 2019, the major story in these parts will be real estate. Stadium real estate.
 
Oh, there will be games, to be sure – 700 pro events, give or take the odd postseason game, hundreds of college events not including the annual Alabama-Clemson game, and all the weird offseason dramas about who’s signing with whom and who isn’t going to like it and how many millions will be burned to make this whole pageant work.
 
But it’s still stadium stuff that will be of the most impact, and unless that sort of thing starts your engine, this could be a pretty dry year. Nothing sucks quite like stadium suck. The story seems to last forever, it often has no resolution, and when it does, it means prices are going up or availability is going down. But let’s do the walkthrough.
 
1.        The Oakland Raiders are playing somewhere in 2019, but nobody knows where yet, which is so very Raiders. Only they can institutionalize homelessness because only they work by the seat of their pants this often while pretending to a team whose “greatness is in its future.” 
2.        The Golden State Warriors are moving west and going to tell us all about it every day to the point that we may forget that there’s a basketball team attached to the new place. There’s no telling how much longer their dynasty will last, but it will happen against a backdrop of seat licenses and tickets for games that you can’t see.
3.        The San Francisco Giants are celebrating the 20th year at their park by seeing the Warriors move next door and start poaching event customers, while trying to decide if it needs the Raiders to chew up the field of their 75-win baseball team.
4.        The Oakland Athletics are going to keep futzing around the Howard Terminal site until they actually commit to ordering a shovel, which is when we can finally take them at face value on this matter.
5.        The San Francisco 49ers have to figure out how to hide all the empty seats that have framed their work product for the last five years because while their stadium may be a cash cow, cows are not particularly telegenic.
 
It’s not all stadiums everywhere, though. Our local colleges don’t have the building itch, the Sacramento Kings don’t factor into this because they’ve already done the arena thing and are finally crafting a team worthy of the building, and the San Jose Sharks, maybe uniquely, don’t want a new building even though theirs is more than 25 years old.
 
Yes, don’t want a new building. Owner Hasso Plattner, the German billionaire who bought the team because he likes hockey even though he still lives mostly in Germany, negotiated a new lease three years ago that runs through 2025 and pays $0 in rent in exchange for somewhere in the neighborhood of $100 million in upgrades to keep SAP Center. That doesn’t mean they won’t want something new in the future on someone else’s dime, just that they have been silent on building matters since 2015 and remain so now.
 
But the Raiders in and of themselves are such a roaringly hot mess geographically that they may be the first team in the post-merger era (1970) to have nobody want them at all, and that’s a story in and of itself. The latest development is that two members of the San Francisco Board of Supervisors and a Supervisor-elect came out last week opposing the Giants potentially undercutting Oakland by picking up their team for a quick four-month slap-and-tickle.
 
This might drag Levi’s Stadium back into the whither-the-Raiders debate, even though neither landlord (Jed York) nor tenant (Mark Davis) seem to want anything to do with each other. And it keeps Oakland as the favorite to house the team for its true farewell season . . . that is unless the stadium in Las Vegas gets stalled for some unforeseen (or very foreseen, as these things go) reason.
 
The A’s remain in the Coliseum for the next few years, but have to advance beyond the artist’s rendering stage for the Howard Terminal version of their new park, which as we know isn’t a stage at all but merely watercolor sketches. What they do from this point on is the hard part, and there are skeptics who believe they might chuck it all in anyway, beg to relocate out of the area and throw themselves on the sandpapery mercies of Commissioner Rob Manfred, who remembers that the A’s voted against him when he was running for commissioner after Bud Selig’s retirement. Either way, that’s a year-long talker, too.
 
As for the Warriors, they will now move to the waterfront palace Joe Lacob cares about more than basketball, and if you think that won’t bring added pressure to the already exhaustive matter of keeping the dynasty fueled and stocked, you haven’t seen the way Lacob can agonize over a second-quarter turnover against the Suns.
 
Most of this will not be true in 2020. The Warriors will be fully embedded in the city, the Raiders will be moving-vanned to Nevada and the A’s will either be staring at a hole in the ground or have to explain why they’re not. By 2020 the 49ers will have to show tangible signs that they can get this football thing right and maybe put more of their seats to use, and the Giants will be a year into their rebuild and the simultaneous fight with the Warriors for non-baseball events.
 
Some of those problems will be resolved in 202 for good or ill, and we can move on to the games and the players and the coaching and the drama and the rumors and the gambling and all the other things that make us care as much as we do about spectator sport. Hell, we might even get a firing or two just to break up the monotony.
 
But for the most part, 2019 is about where we watch just as much as what we watch. Were I you, I’d drink. This could get . . . well, insipid. 

What Raiders, 49ers had in common proves Bay Area can endure football

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USATSI

What Raiders, 49ers had in common proves Bay Area can endure football

Well, this much good happened on the last day of the 2018 football season, Bay Area Editions: The Oakland Raiders managed to finish their work in record time.
 
Their work, mind you, was to lose to the Kansas City Chiefs, which they did by turning the ball over the first four times they got it en route to a 35-3 mauling. The record time was two hours and thirty-seven minutes, which is ungodly fast for a game so formatted to get in all the possible advertisements that anything under three hours is an oddity, and anything under 2:40 is a game from 1967.
 
And if you want to be a pedant about it, it was the fastest game in nine years, the last being a tedio-spectacular between Jacksonville and New England won by the Patriots, 35-7, in 2009.
 
Now given that the 49ers played nearly an hour longer to lose to the Los Angeles Rams, 48-32, AND scored the last two touchdowns to make a rout look like a wacky circus, I guess that means that San Francisco was the superior team this year. Well, that and the fact that their most convincing win in five years had come against had come against the Raiders.
 
But there was plenty of very little for each team in 2018 as they extended their streak of non-winning combined records to 16 years, and there was something to be said for the fact that they were also 28th and 32nd against the point spread in 2018. In short, two public teams offended the public both in real life and BettingWorld.
 
But now that we all are clear on what happened, what happens next? I mean, other than the 49ers either picking second or trading down, and the Raiders picking fourth or trading in either direction?
 
Well, the Raiders need a place to play that is more developed than Bushrod Park, and the 49ers need to make Levi’s Stadium seem less like a furniture store on a rainy Saturday. The 49ers need to break in their new-old quarterback, Jimmy Garoppolo, and the Raiders need to decide if they can or want to move forward with the increasingly beleaguered Derek Carr.
 
After that, they both need to demonstrate that the Bay Area can still endure professional football. I mean, the Raiders are beating feet out of town soon enough, but the 49ers have spent their margin for error with John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan, and the 21st Century hasn’t been very useful for the Bay Area.
 
These were two once-mighty franchises rendered low, lower and below the horizon, and 2018 was the lowest in years. Both teams had injuries, personnel shortages and general malaise. They both won four games, and there is no way to make that seem like anything other than the eyesores they were.
 
And while we are no longer naïve enough to believe that the Raiders are going to be anything other than inertia embodied in 2019 as Gruden continues the teardown that preps the team for Las Vegas, the 49ers need to have the season in 2019 that 2018 was advertised to be rather than what 20-17 ended up being. Shanahan is 3-19 in months other than December (and the team 7-38 since Jim Harbaugh was shown the front gate), which is Hue Jacksonian no matter what excuse you apply, and those fans who still will have a team in two years are wearying of being spoilers before Halloween.
 
We’d like to tell you that things are going to get better for both teams in 2019, but we thought that in 2018, 2017 and 2016, too. Selling hope to dispirited customers is how big-box scores went bankrupt, so it’s probably psychologically safer to sit back and wait for this alleged improvement to happen. Hey, it worked for the Warriors.

[RELATED: What we learned in 49ers season-ending loss to Rams]
 
But credit where its due. The Raiders knew what the audience wanted Sunday, and gave it to them -- a quick hello-and-goodbye and an early flight home to fearfully contemplate Jon Gruden’s second offseason. Their offseason might not be fun, but at least it started sooner.