Timo Meier kept up his torrid pace to start the season in the Sharks’ 4-3 overtime win over the Philadelphia Flyers Saturday. The winger scored his 10th and 11th goals of the season, which moved him into a five-way tie for the NHL lead in goals and eclipsed Patrick Marleau’s mark for the most goals by a Shark through the first 14 games of the season.
Meier’s hot start has largely been driven by his even-strength play. The third-year pro is playing more on the power play than he has at any point in his three-year career, but has scored nine of his 11 goals at even strength, including seven in five-on-five situations.
The latter mark was the third-highest in the league entering Sunday. Meier’s 2.25 five-on-five goals per hour was tied for the sixth-highest among players that have played at least 100 minutes. Projected over a full season, that would be the highest goal-scoring rate of any Sharks player since 2007.
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That rate is likely to come down, but not because Meier’s underlying play is unsustainable. Let’s break down how the 22-year-old has started the season so strongly. All stats are courtesy of Natural Stat Trick and Corsica Hockey.
He’s shooting a lot
Only six forwards have attempted more five-on-five shots than Meier (62) so far this season, and only three have more unblocked attempts (52). Meier is also 14th in shots on goal (34).
Equalizing for ice time using shot rates, Meier has been one of the NHL’s most prolific shot generators this season. Among skaters that have played at least 100 five-on-five minutes, here’s where Meier ranked in rates of shot attempts, unblocked attempts, and shots on goal.
San Jose Sharks
| Category | Stat | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| CF/60 | 19.96 | 8 |
| FF/60 | 16.74 | 5 |
| Shots/60 | 10.95 | 21 |
That's not exactly a surprise. Since he debuted two years ago, Meier has been a shoot-first player. But, he is shooting more this year than he did over his first two seasons, with his five-on-five shot rates up across the board.
Meier’s shot quantity has improved, and so has his shot quality.
He’s shooting from dangerous areas
Meier’s shot from just about everywhere this season, but he’s not exactly playing from the perimeter. The following chart, courtesy of HockeyViz, shows Meier’s unblocked shot locations from this season. A good amount have come from between -- or below -- the face-off dots.
Meier ranks fifth in five-on-five scoring chances (41), third in high-danger chances (21), and third in expected goals (4.04). Among skaters that have played at least 100 minutes, Meier has generated quality looks at a higher rate than almost anyone.
| Category | Stat | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| SCF/60 | 13.2 | 4 |
| HDCF/60 | 6.76 | 11 |
| xGF/60 | 1.3 | 6 |
Those rates, if maintained over a full season, would each by the highest of Meier’s career. His underlying performance seems to be sustainable, even if his shooting percentage isn’t.
He’s getting the bounces
Meier acknowledged as much in his postgame media scrum on Saturday. Through 14 games, Meier is converting on 23.9 percent of his shots in all situations, and 20.59 percent of his five-on-five shots.
That's a pretty big departure. In his first two seasons, Meier scored on just 8.1 percent of all shots, and 7.54 percent during five-on-five play. Five-on-five, he scored about five fewer five-on-five goals (19) than expected (24.16). This year alone, he has already scored about three more.
Meier is unlikely to continue scoring on over 20 percent of his shots, but scoring on fewer than eight percent isn’t a realistic baseline for his skill level, either. Should he fall somewhere in between, he’s creating a high enough volume of shots and chances to remain dangerous in the face of any regression to the mean.