What could next contract look like for Sharks' Hertl?

• Editor's note: Sheng Peng will be a regular contributor to NBC Sports California's Sharks coverage for the 2021-22 season. You can read more of his coverage on San Jose Hockey Now, listen to him on the San Jose Hockey Now Podcast, and follow him on Twitter at Sheng_Peng.

What will Tomas Hertl's next contract look like? And how will it fit the Sharks?

On Thursday, Sharks acting GM Joe Will intimated that the impending UFA wants to return to San Jose.

“The one thing we have in common is that Tomas loves being a Shark, and we love having Tomas here,” he said. “So now, it’s finding a way to have that happen.”

It's going to get expensive: Tomas Hertl leads the Sharks with 22 goals, and is on pace for a career-high 39. It's not an outlier either: Hertl scored 35 in 2018-19 and was on an 82-game pace for 31 last year. So he's a 30-goal center who can handle first-line minutes (19:28 per game) and is a two-way force (1:18 SH per game).

Suffice to say, the 28-year-old isn't a common player.

But we can look at three recent signings that give us a reasonable range for Hertl's next contract.

Last August, the Philadelphia Flyers inked Sean Couturier to an eight-year, $62 million dollar contract ($7.75 million average annual value). At the time, there were a lot of striking parallels between Couturier and Hertl, which I outlined here.

To summarize, similar age and productivity, though Couturier is an elite defensive pivot (Selke Trophy winner in 2020) while Hertl is not.

I thought then that an eight-year, $56 million dollar offer ($7 million AAV) would be just right for Hertl.

That, however, might have been the pre-contract season rate. The gregarious centerman is doing himself many favors with his strong contract year push.

Then in early October, the Florida Panthers locked up Aleksander Barkov to an eight-year, $80 million contract ($10 million AAV).

But besides size and a big-bodied game -- both are 6-foot-3 -- there's no comparison. Barkov is a Hart Trophy candidate; Hertl is very good, but a cut below.

So Hertl shouldn't be crossing into double-digit AAV.

A couple days after Barkov's extension, the New York Rangers signed Mika Zibanejad to an eight-year, $68 million dollar pact ($8.5 million AAV).

Zibanejad is a year older, but he does have what might be an outlier 40-goal campaign on his resume. In 2019-20, he potted 41 goals in just 57 contests, an 82-game pace of 59 goals. Besides that remarkable season, from 2017-21, Zibanejad averaged 0.39 goals per game, which translates to 32 goals over a full season.

So without that possible outlier, there are some offensive similarities between Hertl and Zibanejad. Both play big minutes and are considered good-not-great defensive centers.

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One thing that Couturier, Barkov, and Zibanejad's extensions have in common? They're all maximum eight-year deals.

If Sharks management (or their fans) are expecting anything less, well, anything is possible but I wouldn't count on it. This is Hertl's chance for security and the big bag, why should he sell himself short?

These contracts also all featured No-Movement Clauses of some sort -- that's just standard freight these days.

As for AAV range? The low would seem to be about $7 million with a high of $9 million.

My guess? I could see the Sharks and Hertl matching teammate Logan Couture's current eight-year, $64 million dollar agreement.

This is how that might project on the Sharks' 2022-23 opening night roster. 

This isn't counting Evander Kane -- I would still guess that there will be a settlement before Kane's grievance is heard, meaning the Sharks will be on the hook for something with Kane next year. 

All contract projections are highlighted -- the Sharks get just under next year's $82.5 million dollar cap here: