Basketball Reference's Warriors playoff odds a mixed bag


The Warriors have spent much of the 2020-21 NBA Season on the periphery of the Western Conference playoff chase, and these simulations believe that won't change by the time the postseason rolls around.

Basketball-Reference's latest "Playoff Probabilities Report" has the Warriors finishing the season as the No. 9 seed in the west, which would put them into a play-in tournament matchup with the San Antonio Spurs (10th seed).

Finishing in the sixth seed or higher would preclude the Warriors from the new play-in tournament, but the site's simulations give the Warriors just a 1.6 percent chance of finishing that high in the standings.

The Warriors also have a 15.4 percent chance of earning the seventh seed, and a 24.3 percent probability of finishing with the eighth seed.

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The winner of the matchup between the seventh and eighth seeds in the play-in tournament earns the seventh position, with the remaining three teams left to duke it out for the final spot in the playoffs. Basketball-Reference currently gives the Warriors a 41.5 percent chance of advancing out of the play-in tournament into the top eight.


The Warriors have 13 games remaining to try and improve their position, but barring a nearly unprecedented run down the stretch, we likely will be seeing Steph Curry and his Warriors teammates making an appearance in the first-ever play-in tournament. 

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