Why Warriors might (and might not) still be favored to win NBA title

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Everyone loves you when you’re on top. Evidently, that goes for some advanced analytics, too.

The Warriors’ four-game losing streak has many wondering if the two-time defending NBA champions really have a three-peat in them. Discord between All-Stars Draymond Green and Kevin Durant, and a groin injury that has sidelined Steph Curry, haven’t helped, either.

So, is it time to call off the Warriors’ march through the Western Conference as a sure thing? According to FiveThirtyEight, maybe and maybe not.

Before the season, FiveThirtyEight’s well-known ELO forecast pegged the Warriors to go 58-24, with a 31 percent chance of making the NBA Finals and a 22 percent chance of winning the title. All three numbers were league highs.

Those forecasts wavered throughout the next four weeks, but Wednesday’s crushing home loss to the Thunder really caused the numbers to drop. Now, the ELO forecast has the Warriors going 51-31, with an 87 percent chance of making the playoffs, a 15 percent chance of making the NBA Finals and just 9 percent chance of pulling off the three-peat.

The Bucks, Raptors, Thunder and Rockets all have better odds than the Warriors. Not good.

[RELATED: Ratto: Only good health can fix what ails the Warriors]

But, as FiveThirtyEight explains, “Elo ratings — which power the pure Elo forecast — are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent.” So, let’s check out the new CARMELO (huh?) forecast, which “… is more complex, using team depth charts and constantly updating player ratings to track just how much talent is on each team (after accounting for trades, injuries and disgruntled teammates).”

Ooh, that sounds more like the Warriors’ style.

Before the season, the CARMELO forecast was much kinder than the ELO, predicting the Warriors would go 63-19, with a 61 percent chance of making the NBA Finals and a 49 percent chance of winning the title. And while the 28-point loss to the Thunder dropped that forecast some, it wasn’t as severe as the ELO’s, with the Warriors now finishing 59-23 with a 56 percent chance of making the NBA Finals and a 42 percent chance of winning it all.

That sounds much more reasonable. And right now, panicking Warriors fans need a little reason.

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