Vermont (-11.5) at Hartford: O/U 138.5
Vermont has won 14 straight games and sits atop the American East Conference. The Catamounts scored 70 or more points in all 14 games during that stretch, winning by an average of 16.5 points per game.
Hartford is coming off a 65-49 win over NJIT, breaking a four-game losing streak. The Hawks allowed 70, 71, 85 and 68 points in those four losses to New Hampshire, Albany, UMass Lowell and UMBC.
Most models project Vermont to score 77-78 points versus Hartford. The Catamounts dropped 82 points on the Hawks in an 82-72 win back on Jan. 22.
Hartford’s average defensive length of possession is 17.3 seconds, the quickest in the American East Conference.
Vermont’s offense is ranked No. 1 in adjusted offensive efficiency (126.2) over conference play, which would rank first across the country. The Catamounts offense overall is 31st in the nation (111.9).
Recently, Vermont has been cashing the game total Over in 13 of the past 14 games (92.8%), per NBC’s Edge Finder. Reminder, the Catamounts won all 14 of those games too.
Vermont and UNLV are the only top 100 teams that Hartford has faced all season and UNLV scored 95 points. Vermont will be the best team to visit Hartford and it is a short trip that the Catamounts will be prepared for.
Hartford’s center is 6-foot-8 and the rest of the starting lineup is 6-foot-4 or shorter. Vermont is a small team with all guards standing 6-foot-2 to 6-foot-6 that stretch the floor. Expect both teams to run.
Back the Team Total Over 74 (-121) up to 75.5 points on PointsBet as I expect this to move.
DraftKings has this Team Total prop at 76.5 and FanDuel 75.5 compared to PointsBet at 74.
If you miss out on the team total, pivot to the game total as it cashes repeatedly or the -11.5.
Vermont was winning by 20-plus points before Hartford made a late run to cut the loss to 10 points.
Pick: Vermont Team Total Over 74 (1u)
There is some news on Vermont that makes this bet worth waiting for, per Jon Rothstein.
Vermont's Ryan Davis (non COVID injury) is a game-time decision for tonight's game against Hartford, per John Becker. Averages 17.4 PPG. Listed as day-to-day.
— Jon Rothstein (@JonRothstein) February 14, 2022
Norfolk State (-14) at Delaware State: O/U 133.5
It will be a good week when Norfolk State plays on a Monday.
Norfolk State is 12-5-1 ATS (70.6%) on the year but is currently on a two-game ATS losing streak. The Spartans have a beautiful bounce-back opponent against Delaware State, Kenpom and Barttorvik’s 357th ranked team -- there are 358 DI teams.
Norfolk State beat Delaware State by 29 points, 80-51 at home earlier in the season, so we should expect another double-digit victory for the Spartans. Norfolk State has won seven of its past eight games by an average score of 14.0 points per game.
Delaware State is 0-17 on the ML against DI opponents this season. However, the Hornets are 4-0 ATS as a home underdog of +10 or more this season.
When I look at those teams, they are 4-0 ATS versus Coppin State, Howard, Delaware and UNC Wilmington -- decent teams that Norfolk State is 4-0 against and won by three, five, seven and nine points.
I think Norfolk State puts up 70-plus points and wins by 10 or more despite the single-digit wins versus those four teams previously mentioned. Looking over the Kenpom numbers, Norfolk State has plenty of clear advantages.
For starters, Norfolk State should have no problem running up and down the floor on Delaware State, a team that ranks second-worst in the nation in offensive efficiency (83.6) and 329th in defensive efficiency (111.6).
Norfolk State ranks first in both offensive (107.8) and defensive efficiency (91.3) in conference play, making this a prime spot for the Spartans.
The Hornets defense is 26th nationally with 16.6 seconds of average possession length defensively, so expect plenty of possessions for the Spartans. Delaware State also turns the ball over 29.6% of the time in conference play and 26.7% on the season (357th).
Norfolk State is last in the conference at forcing turnovers (19.3%), so I expect the Spartans turnover numbers to increase after playing Delaware State today.
I would back Norfolk State Team Total out to 74.5 as I got the 73.5 (-121). DraftKings already moved this prop to 74.5 and both FanDuel and PointsBet has this juiced to the Over.
Pivot to the -14 if you miss out on the Team Total up to 74.5 or 75-plus points.
Pick: Norfolk State Team Total Over 73.5 (1u)
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