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Auburn (-1.5) at USC: O/U 141.0
This will be a fantastic game and full of NBA talent as one of the night caps on the slate.
Looking over these offenses and defenses, I am not sure why the total isn’t closer to 135 rather than 141.0.
USC’s offense ranks 211th in free-throw percentage (69.6%), 215th in offensive turnover percentage (19.6%), 226th in three-point percentage (32.2%) and 245h in offensive rebounding percentage (26.7%).
Auburn’s offense ranks 165th in offensive turnover percentage (18.7%), 233rd in effective field goal percentage (48.4%), 307th in free-throw percentage (66.2%) and 334th in three-point percentage (28.3%).
You can see all of that, plus the defensive numbers below, per Kenpom. Auburn has an elite defense and USC isn’t too far behind.
Both teams rely on scoring inside and play great interior defense. With their poor free-throw and three-point shooting, plus tempos and height, this is an Under play.
Auburn will make the cross-country trip to California after playing at home on Wednesday. They’ve had some nice rest, while USC has played four-straight home games with the last coming on Wednesday as well.
The rest is neutral and it makes me lean USC, but I can trust all of the previous stats, plus this:
USC’s defense is more vulnerable to the three-pointer mixed with Auburn being terrible at shooting the trey-ball, then throw in traveling across the country for their first true road game, I think the Under is the best play.
Most models projects this between 133 and 137. I took the Under 141.0 on DraftKings at -110. I would play this to 138.5 for 1 unit.
Pick: Under 141.0 (1.5u)
Georgia vs. Notre Dame (-3): O/U 133.0
This game is taking place at the Atlanta Hawks arena, so it’s a neutral court game but more of a semi-home game for the Georgia Bulldogs.
This season, Notre Dame is 0-7-1 ATS as a favorite but 6-2 on the ML. While that looks terrible, Notre Dame was laying at least -6 in every game and -10.5 or more in six of those eight games. This spread opened at -1 and is now -3 and -3.5 at some places.
The Irish have yet to play a true road game but do have a neutral site contest on the season and they lost to St. Bonaventure (63-51). However, Georgia as an underdog has been downright bad.
Since the start of last season, Georgia is 2-25 on the ML (7.4%) and 10-17 ATS (37%) as an underdog, per NBC’s Edge Finder. The Bulldogs have lost 15-straight games as an underdog and are 2-9 ATS (18.1%) in the last 11 as a dog.
A few more things to like in this matchup is the fact Georgia turns the ball over 22.4% of the time (335th) and Notre Dame does 13.8% of the time (4th). The Irish rank 51st or better in two-point, three-point and free-throw percentages, while Georgia ranks between 103rd and 225th in those categories.
The Irish are ranked top 100 in most models and Georgia has played two top 100 teams thus far, losing to both. The Bulldogs lost 81-71 and 87-73 to Wake Forest and UAB, both road or neutral site games.
Georgia hasn’t played since the 6th of December, so 12 days ago. That is a long layoff and rust should be a factor. Georgia played UAB, East Tennessee State, Hampton, Florida A&M and Georgia Tech in the past five games, less than stellar competition.
Notre Dame has played four top 150 teams in the past five games, including Michigan State, St. Bonaventure, Syracuse and Marquette, so the better competition for sure. The Irish last played on Sunday, the 11th, so they have some rest as well and preparation for this contest.
I played Notre Dame ML at -130 after it moved from -125 and is now -150 to -165 most places.
I’d risk 1u at -150 or more.
Pick: Notre Dame ML (Risk 1u)
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