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North Carolina at Indiana (-5.5): O/U 145.0
It’s time to hop on the Tar Heels.
After two-straight losses for North Carolina by five points to Iowa State and a two-point loss in 4OT to Alabama, the Tar Heels need a victory.
UNC’s only fault is allowing three-pointers to fall, but luckily, Indiana scores 23.1% of its points from downtown (329th), despite hitting 38.3% from deep (38th).
In the Hoosiers’ only close game and only game versus an opponent ranked 250th or better in Kenpom, Xavier, Indiana went 4-of-12 from three (33.3%) and 17-of-26 from the free-throw line (65.4%).
Indiana’s five other wins were blowouts over Morehead State (255th), Miami of Ohio (271st), Jackson State (316th), Bethune-Cookman (326th) and Arkansas Little Rock (328th).
North Carolina has plenty of weapons like Caleb Love, R.J. Davis, Pete Nance and Leaky Black if Armando Bacot cannot go, but everyone practiced Tuesday and Bacot expects to play limited minutes, while dealing with a nagging ankle injury.
The Tar Heels have been tested the past three games and I believe they are too talented to drop three-straight.
I will take UNC to end its losing streak and lock in here at Indiana. I grabbed +5.5 (-118) and +176 on the ML at FanDuel.
Pick: North Carolina +5.5 (1u), North Carolina ML (0.5u)
UNC-Wilmington at Coastal Carolina (-0.5): O/U 131.0
UNC-Wilmington was an ATS darling last year and this year, they have been successful at 4-2 ATS, but I am not willing to back them here.
The Seahawks played a tough road schedule with North Carolina, Oklahoma and UConn with two non-DI home games sprinkled in before playing three-straight neural court games, winning all three (Missouri State, Vermont and North Texas).
UNC-Wilmington is coming off a high off winning a tournament in the Bahamas on Sunday and now comes back to reality on the road versus Coastal Carolina. The Chanticleers last played at home on Saturday, so they have a travel and rest advantage.
UNCW allows 22.8% of its opponents’ points to come from the free-throw line (43rd) and Coastal Carolina is making 85.1% of its free-throws (1st) and averaging 28% of their points there (23.6%) of its points there (26th).
On the other hand, Coastal Carolina only permits 7% of its opponents’ points to come from the charity stripe (363rd), while UNCW makes a living off the charity stripe (74.2%) with 28% of their points coming from there (4th).
This could be a tale of free-throws and who gets there more often. The Seahawks of UNCW have shot 25.2% from three this season (349th) and 40.7% from two-point range (345th).
The Chanticleers aren’t lightyears better, but they are better and the home team.
All three models I use have Coastal winning by one, two and six points.
Give me Coastal -0.5 at -105 odds on FanDuel and the 1H ML at -115 odds on BetMGM.
Pick: Coastal Carolina -0.5 (1u), Coastal Carolina 1H ML (0.5u)
Samford at DePaul (-4): O/U 154.0
This is an intriguing game because Samford is getting top 100 and top 150 love in some models despite playing four non-DI home games, one true road game and three more DI home games (two losses).
Samford played Alabama A&M (326th) on the road and won by 20 points. DePaul is ranked 96th in Kenpom and is by far the best team the Bulldogs have faced.
Samford lost to Louisiana Tech (130th), then lost to non-DI UT-Southern by 12 at home over the past two games. Now Samford flips to the road team without a rest advantage.
DePaul last played on Friday the 25th at home and have had that entire time off without any travel. For Samford, the Bulldogs played Sunday at home and make the trip from Alabama to Illinois before a trip to Florida versus UCF up next.
The Bulldogs turn the ball over 23% of the time (329th) and score 24.9% of its points from the free-throw line (18th). Both teams shoot above 75% from the stripe, but DePaul has four seniors in the lineup, are the taller and better rebounding team, plus have played the better competition.
The Blue Demons do not have another home game for about two weeks, so I expect them to come out and take care of business. Two of the three models I use have DePaul winning by six and 11 points, while the other has Samford winning.
Give me the Blue Demons -3.5 at -110 odds on BetMGM, good out to -4.
Pick: DePaul -4 (0.5u)
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