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Memphis (-1) at Ole Miss: O/U 136.5
I know Memphis lost two straight, and the doubters are here, but this young team will not lose many games this season.
Getting them early in the year will be key for some of these teams to get some resume-building wins. However, I think Memphis had its wake-up call with an outright loss to Georiga -- a team they are lightyears better than.
Nevertheless, that was the first true road game for Memphis. Now, the Tigers know what they are up against as they take on the Rebels on the road.
According to most models, Memphis is projected to win this game by two and three points, but I like the Tigers to win by a few possessions.
Memphis is 25-7 SU since 2020-21 as the favorite (78.1%), per NBC’s Edge Finder. Memphis won 19 straight as the favorite until losing to Iowa State and Georgia over the past two games.
I like this spot for Memphis more than I did against Georgia. I wrote about Memphis Team Total against Georgia, which hit, but the Tigers’ spread did not. I had the right play, but went with Memphis to roll, which they did not.
Ole Miss has yet to collect an impressive win this season with victories over New Orleans, Charleston Southern, Elon, Mississippi Valley State and Rider. Yikes.
Memphis is WAY better than all of those teams and ranks top 55 in offensive (54th) and defensive (19th) adjusted efficiency. Ole Miss ranks 125th in offensive efficiency and hits 64.3% from the free-throw line (315th).
Fade Ole Miss at home and back Memphis to bounce back and end the short two-game losing streak.
Pick: Memphis ML (1u)
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Clemson at Miami (-2.5): O/U 134.5
Clemson is far ahead of Miami in most rankings but tagged as the underdog tag against the Hurricanes.
The wrong team could be favored here. Kenpom and Barttorvik project Clemson to win this matchup, but the recent outcomes for both teams more than likely impact this line.
Clemson is coming off a road loss to a tough seven-point loss to a physical Rutgers team at home. The Tigers lost three of the past four games. Two of the three losses were neutral court losses to St. Bonaventure and West Virginia by three and seven points.
Miami beat Penn State in Pennsylvania over the previous outing. That was a big win for the Hurricanes. Miami is also 2-1 at home on the year, with wins coming against Canisius and Florida A&M, plus a loss to UCF.
The Tigers are pretty bad on the road. Clemson is 2-5 on the ML away from home since 2020-21 (28.5%). Meanwhile, Miami is 9-9 on the ML at home over the same span while going 8-9-1 ATS.
Miami is 2-6-1 ATS (25%) as the home favorite and earned one win over an ACC team during that stretch. The Hurricanes are 1-4-1 ATS in the past six home games overall.
Both squads are not good. Miami cannot shoot or defend the three, ranking 300th in both percentages. The Hurricanes also allow 50.9% from the two-point range (330th).
Clemson has much better numbers, per Kenpom, and ranks among the top 100 in plenty of defensive categories.
Miami ranks 307th in defensive effective field goal percentage (54.4%) and 136th in adjusted defensive efficiency (99.7).
Clemson should have an easier time scoring on Miami’s defense rather than Rutgers on the road. Rutgers is a dominant home team. Miami is not.
Back Clemson on the spread at +2.5 as I think they can win this game outright. I would consider the ML if this moves down to +1.5 of +2.
Pick: Clemson +2.5 (1u)
Marquette at Wisconsin (-6.5): O/U 137.5
Shaka Smart and his Marquette squad make the trip to Maidson to take on the Wisconsin Badgers.
In this series, Marquette owns Wisconsin ATS and I will not forget to mention Shaka Smart is 41-22-1 ATS as a road underdog in his career (65%).
The Golden Eagles are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings (80%) with the Badgers and covered seven out of the last 10 as the underdog (70%).
Marquette won three outright and has performed well in Wisconsin over the past five as the dog, per NBC’s Edge Finder.
Marquette is 5-2 ATS and 4-3 on the ML in Wisconsin. The Eagles were the underdogs in every trip and were one point away from being 6-1 ATS.
As stated in previous picks, Wisconsin is normally a good fade-at-home ATS. The Badgers are 8-11 ATS at home since 2020-21 and 8-10 ATS as the favorite.
Overall, Wisconsin is 1-4 ATS in the past five as a home favorite and 1-5 ATS in the last six at home.
Both of these squads present an interesting matchup that makes me lean towards the Under. Marquette and Wisconsin rank 263rd and 336th in defensive average possession length, plus 57th and 11th in adjusted defensive efficiency.
This should be a competitive back-and-forth game. Marquette has shown us they are a lot better than some of us expected, including me. Despite being a bottom-10 team in minute continuity and experience, Marquette beat Illinois (67-66), Ole Miss (78-72) and West Virginia (82-71).
Wisconsin needed Johnny Davis and Brad Davison to upset Houston (65-63) and beat Georgia Tech (70-66). Wisconsin has not been home since Nov. 15, an outright loss to Providence.
The Badgers are relying heavily on Davis and Davison thus far. Marquette has a top 100 defense in a plethora of categories, and if they can keep the Wisconsin duo under 40 combined points, Marquette can win this outright.
Back Marquette to cover another spread against Wisconsin, play this game down to +5.
Pick: Marquette +6.5 (1u)
Loyola Chicago (-4) vs. DePaul: O/U 144.0
The Chicago rivalry is back! Loyola Chicago versus DePaul.
DePaul is a perfect 6-0 on the ML this season and to the Over, plus an impressive 5-1 ATS marl (83.3%). The Blue Demons have rolled over the competition in all six home games.
Loyola Chicago is playing its first true road game after three straight neutral court contests. Loyola Chicago lost to Michigan State (63-61) and Auburn (62-53) on neutral courts, then beat an injured Arizona State team (77-59).
The Ramblers are not as talented as last season, which is more than likely due to Cameron Krutwig’s departure. His presence made a significant difference last season for Loyola, but that size and talent is missing this season.
Loyola plays one guy taller than 6-foot-7. DePaul is the 11th-tallest team in the nation and features plenty of athletes 6-foot-4 or taller, including the entire lineup.
The Blue Demons are a top 100 rebounding unit, while the Ramblers are not, plus DePaul will have the best player on the floor.
Javon Freeman-Liberty has taken off for a DePaul team made up mostly of transfers. The Blue Demons’ leading scorer has at least 19 points in every game, including 22 or more in four of six games.
Back DePaul to cover the spread as they are live to earn the home upset at +150 odds.
Pick: DePaul +4 (1u)
Robert Morris at Milwaukee (-4): O/U 138.5
We fade Robert Morris again.
The Colonials are on the road, and yesterday, lost to Green Bay, extending the losing streak to 13 straight games.
Robert Morris has failed to cover four straight road games and 5-10 ATS (33.3%) since 2020-21, per NBC’s Edge Finder.
Robert Morris is 0-6 on the year and lost every game by four or more points. The Colonials faced two teams at 297th and 309th overall in Kenpom rankings. Robert Morris lost by four and 12.
Milwaukee comes in at 200th and sits at 1-6 on the year, riding a six-game losing streak. Three of Milwaukee’s losses have come by single digits and three or fewer possessions.
The Panthers are posting some of the best defensive ranks in the country when it comes to two-point percentage (41.9%, 19th) and effective field goal percentage (44.8%, 48th).
Six of the top eight players in Milwaukee’s lineup stand at 6-foot-4 or taller, making them the 75th-tallest team. Milwaukee plays the 200th slowest tempo overall, offensive and defensive, while Robert Morris plays quicker and smaller.
After this meeting, Robert Morris meets with Lancaster Bible, which will likely be the first win of the season for the Colonials, not here versus the Milwaukee Panthers.
Take Milwaukee -4 out to -5 on the spread.
Pick: Milwaukee -4 (1u)
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