Vaughn Dalzell breaks down why he likes Wright State at home on Senior Night to get revenge on Northern Kentucky in Horizon League play.
Northern Kentucky at Wright State (-2.5): O/U 137.5
Anybody up for a revenge game in the Horizon League?
Northern Kentucky beat Wright State 78-64 at home on Dec. 29 in the first game of Horizon League play for both teams. The Norse were up by as many as 21 points during that game, so it was indeed a smackdown and a spot you know Wright State circled on the schedule to get the Norse back.
Northern Kentucky does have a rest advantage here, last playing on Feb. 4 compared to Wright State playing at home versus IUPUI on Feb. 8. Wright State beat IUPUI 103-71 and played 11 guys, so they are not as tired as the schedule makes it seem.
Plus, Northern Kentucky could be more rusty than anything. The Norse haven’t had five days of rest or more since playing on New Year’s Eve (won 55-42 at IUPUI), then losing at home on Jan. 6 to Oakland 64-63.
The Norse have lost seven of their 10 games away from home (3-4 true road game, 0-3 neutral).
On the road, Northern Kentucky is shooting 29.9% from three (299th), defending the three at 38.2% (296th), plus rank 285th or worse in both offensive and defensive efficiency, two-point offense (45.6%) and free-throw percentage (66.3%).
Overall, the Norse have the slowest defensive tempo/average possession length in the country (19.0 seconds) compared to Wright State who ranks 21st in offensive tempo/average possession length (15.8 seconds) and first in conference play.
If Wright State reaches 70 points, they should secure a win. Northern Kentucky is 0-6 in regulation when their opponents score at least 70 points. The Norse are 3-0 in OT games and their opponents scored 70-plus points in those games. Wright State is 5-0 when opponents score 71 or fewer points at the Nutter Center compared to 2-4 when opponents score more than 71 points.
Wright State won six of the last nine meetings versus Northern Kentucky, including the 2022 Horizon League Championship game and three of the last four contests inside the Nutter Center.
Wright State’s 50% overall shooting percentage on the season is the fourth-best in the country behind Gonzaga (52.0%), Colgate (50.6%) and Xavier (50.2%).
At home, Wright State owns a 52.9% effective field goal percentage, 76.1% free-throw percentage and 22.6% defensive rebounding percentage, all top three in Horizon League play.
I think the revenge at home factor, pace, shooting splits and hopefully free t-shirts on ESPN provide Wright State enough to get the victory. Oh yea, it’s Senior Night for Wright State too and they have five seniors, two in the starting lineup and three in the main rotation.
Sign me up for the Wright State Raiders ML at -140 odds out to -150. This on DraftKings and PointsBet at -140.
The Raiders are on a 5-0 ATS streak and 3-0 ATS in the last three home games after starting 1-6-1 ATS at home this season. I like the spread out to -3 once this passes -150 on the ML.
Pick: Wright State ML ML (1u)
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