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James Madison at Eastern Kentucky (-3): O/U 158.5
If I told you James Madison had the nation’s No. 1 three-point defense, what would you say?
Who have they played? Carlow and Old Dominion. You can laugh now.
Eastern Kentucky enters this matchup 3-0 on the season and hits from downtown at a 39.4%-clip (66th).
Despite James Madison’s “tough” three-point defense, they have made 22.6% of their triples (317th) and 46.4% of the two-point attempts (223rd). In other words, I do not think James Madison has an offense that can keep up with EKU’s.
The Dukes of James Madison will go on the road for the first time this season, which could spell disaster.
James Madison is 2-10 on the ML (16.7%) as a road favorite in the past 12, per NBC’s Edge Finder.
The Dukes went 5-7 ATS (41.7%) during that span.
Eastern Kentucky beat Georgetown College (Ky.), Ohio Valley, and Milwaukee through three games. While their schedule is not that impressive either, EKU has put up far better numbers and plays at the country’s sixth-quickest tempo (75.2).
If they are tunning and funning, plus hitting three, unlike James Madison, I like EKU to cover here. The Colonels are 6-1 (85.7%) on the ML as a home favorite the past two seasons and 3-3-1 ATS (50%).
Both are two of the smallest teams in the country in terms of on-court size, and based on last year and returners, EKU is the better team overall.
EKU plays the tougher teams on a year-to-year basis, has the better offense and can stretch the floor with threes, unlike James Madison.
Barttovik makes this a -6.5 to -7 spread for EKU, and I agree this line is a point or two low.
Play this out to -4.5 for 1 unit.
Pick: EKU -3 (1u)
William & Mary at Norfolk State (-4): O/U 139.5
I screamed at my computer. As I placed the -3, it moved to -4.
Out of 358 teams, William & Mary rank 340th in terms of experience (1.05 years), per Kenpom.
The Tribe ranks 77th, with 35.4% of its played minutes going to bench players, meaning they are still figuring out who plays where because they lost by 18 and 12 in the first two games.
On the other hand, Norfolk State returns the 66th-most experienced team (2.34 years) and one with the 316th-ranked bench minutes (22.3%). The Spartans know who they are, and despite bringing back only 32% of the minute continuity, they added some key pieces.
This will mark William & Mary’s first game versus a MEAC team since 2017. However, none of the teams they faced are currently conference members.
If the Spartans slow down the Tribes Ben Wight, then they should be fine. He averages 12.7 drawn fouls per game, and if he does not get the whistle on the road, then his 16.0 points per game will drop.
The next highest scorer for William & Mary averages 10.5 and everyone else 8.0 points per game or fewer.
The Spartans have four players averaging at least 10 points per game.
William & Mary was also picked to finish last in the CAA this season, while Norfolk State was predicted to finish first in the MEAC.
Play Norfolk State out to -5. This would have been a 1.5 unit play at -3.
Pick: Norfolk State -4 (1u)
Virginia at Houston (-7.5): O/U 123.5
This is too many points.
We know this will be a defensive battle and whoever hits more threes will likely win.
As a road underdog, Virginia is 4-3 ATS (57%) over the last three seasons (since 2019), while Houston is 11-5 ATS (68.7%) as a home favorite the last two seasons and 16-0 on the ML (100%).
When you look at the graph below of the teams Houston has faced in the last two seasons as a home favorite -- you get the idea it is conference opponents than teams like Ball State and Lamar.
The only ACC teams Houston has faced since 2017 were Wake Forest (2017) and Georgia Tech (2019). Not the best quality of opponents to measure.
These two teams are playing top-heavy with 27% or less of the minutes allocated to the bench.
Virginia brings back Kihei Clark, Reece Beekman, plus received transfers Armaan Franklin (Indiana) and Jayden Gardner (ECU). The Cavs lost guys like Jay Huff, Sam Hauser and Trey Murphy III.
Houston has Marcus Sasser, the star, but besides him, guys like Tramon Mark, Kyler Edwards (Texas Tech) and Fabian White all have to step up. The Cougars lost three important starters, Quentin Grimes, DeJon Jarreau and Justin Gorham.
Both teams have overhauls to the roster and while Houston has been superior at home, I would like to see what they do against an ACC team and not an AAC team.
Virginia head coach Tony Bennett is 47-38 SU (55.3%) against ranked opponents as the Cavs coach. He is 147-42 (.778) in non-conference action and a 64-34 road record (65.3%).
This is a big test for both squads, but I will take the underdog in what should be a back-and-forth game.
The Cavaliers are playable down to +6.
Pick: Virginia +7.5 (1u)
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