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Betting No. 6 Iowa St versus No. 11 Pittsburgh in the NCAA Tournament

Gabe Kalscheur

Gabe Kalscheur

Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK

Vaughn Dalzell breaks down how to bet No. 6 Iowa State versus No. 11 Pittsburgh in the NCAA Tournament.

Pitt vs. Iowa State (-4.5): O/U 131.5

Pitt squeaked by Mississippi State for a play-in victory and continues its dominance as an underdog.

Iowa State is a truly confusing team but has dominated in a few areas, while playing very poorly in others.

The Cyclones own the No. 9 ranked defense and No. 2 in defensive turnover percentage (25.1%), but owns the 317th-ranked free-throw percentage (67.4%) and 284th-ranked offensive turnover percentage (19.7%).

The Panthers’ second-half defense versus Mississippi State was impressive and this game should be a half-court setting that’s slowed down. Iowa State is a slow offense, ranking 305th overall in tempo and the Cyclones are 327th overall. Pitt’s defense ranks 272nd in tempo and play slow overall at 176th.

Iowa State is 2-8 in the last 10 road and neutral court games. In those 10 games, Iowa State scored 71 or fewer points in seven games and 61 or less points in six games.

I don’t trust either offense in this game and with Pitt having played already, they probably have an advantage to pull off the upset but the Under is the best play.

I grabbed the Under 131.5 at -110 odds and would go down to 129.5 or 130.

Pick: Under 131.5 (1u)

OTHER MARCH MADNESS PICKS

Drake vs. Miami

Auburn vs. Houston

Duke vs. Tennessee

VCU vs. Saint Mary’s

Iowa State vs. Pittsburgh

Gonzaga vs. Grand Canyon

Furman vs. San Diego State

Baylor vs. UC Santa Barbara

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