Vaughn Dalzell breaks down how to bet the No. 4 Tennessee Vols and No. 13 Louisiana Ragin Cajuns in the NCAA Tournament.
Louisiana vs. Tennessee (-11.5): O/U 135.5
We have another upset alert between No. 4 Tennessee and No. 13 Louisiana.
It has not been easy on the road for Tennessee going 1-5 in the last six games and a lone win versus Ole Miss.
Lately, a primary issue has been Zakai Zeigler being out for the Vols. Zeigler missed three-straight games for the Vols and Tennessee has gone 1-2 with a eight and nine-point loss to Auburn and Missouri.
Zeigler averaged 10.7 points (2nd) and 5.4 assists per game (1st), both top two on the team. The Vols have scored 71 or fewer points in all thee games without Zeigler. For the Ragin Cajuns, Louisiana is 18-1 when they hold their opponent to 71 or less points this season.
Louisiana scores a majority of its points from two (54.3%, 72nd) and Tennessee plays its stingiest defense there (44.6%). The Ragin Cajuns have the No. 1 offense in the Sun Belt and 57th overall, plus impressive rebound marks ranking 85th and 138rd, which is crucial versus Tennessee who is top 110 both ways.
Tennessee blew Longwood out 88-56 last year but Longwood was ranked 145th and Louisiana is 92nd in Kenpom.
Before that, Tennessee lost to Oregon State as a No. 5 seed (70-56) and slipped by Colgate (77-70) in 2019 during the first round. They are liable to get upset in the first round again.
Tennessee’s head coach Rick Barnes is 2-13 ATS (-11.1 units) in the last 15 NCAA Tournament games. I grabbed Louisiana at +11.5 (-105) and sprinkled the ML at +450. Tennessee is a fade in March.
Pick: Louisiana +11.5 (1u), Louisiana ML (0.25u)