Happy Feast Week to you all! It’s one of my favorite times of year. Nothing but college basketball on all day leading up to and through the Thanksgiving weekend. Neutral site games with matchups we wouldn’t traditionally see until March Madness? SIGN ME UP! Here are my two best bets for Tuesday’s semifinals of the Maui in Vegas Invitational.
Wisconsin vs. Houston (-6.5, O/U 122.5)
My first play of the day involves the Wisconsin game. I’m on the U122.5 (-110). These teams rank in the bottom 100 regarding pace of play and I expect this to be an intense defensive matchup between both teams. Wisconsin and Houston both rank in the top 10 in adjusted defensive efficiency. Look for Brad Davidson to attempt and “cut the head off the snake” by taking the primary role of guarding Marcus Sasser in this matchup, who’s averaging nearly 20 ppg. I also expect the Badgers to throw out a few different defensive looks and attempt to slow down the efficiency of the Cougars.
Offensively, both teams are fundamental half-court offenses that pride themselves on not turning the ball over (both teams ranked top 40 in offensive turnover percentage). This isn’t a typical sharp-shooting offense Wisconsin normally has; as they’re shooting below 30% from the arc and have an effective field goal percentage ranked 285th in the nation. Houston is a much more efficient offense than Wisconsin and I expect Kyler Edwards and Fabian White Jr. to contribute big while the Badgers focus on stopping Sasser.
While it may be a “rock fight,” this is one of the best college basketball matchups of the day.
Oregon (-2.5, O/U 131.5) vs. Saint Mary’s (CA)
Despite an early-season beatdown by BYU, Oregon remains one of my favorite teams coming into this season and I’m on the Ducks -2.5 (-105) here. They face an undefeated Saint Mary’s team that has been a strong contender in the West Coast Conference under coach Randy Bennet. The Gaels knocked off Notre Dame last night in a game that came down to the wire, which I believe will hamper them a bit in this matchup with a more talented Ducks team.
Oregon currently ranks 21st in adjusted offensive efficiency and 40th in offensive turnover percentage, while Saint Mary’s ranks 117th and 175th respectively. It’s the Gaels defense that has got them undefeated at this point, ranking 16th in adjusted defensive efficiency and fourth in defensive turnover percentage
Dan Fotu of Saint Mary’s will be the determining factor in this matchup, averaging 15 ppg and five rebounds, shooting 64% from the field and 50% from the arc. If Oregon can slow him down offensively, Eric Williams Jr. and Will Richardson should be able to carry the Ducks into the finals of the Maui in Vegas Invitational.
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May we all FEAST this week! Happy hooping.
