Notre Dame at Duke (-7)
Notre Dame is looking to avoid a losing streak after blowing a massive 50-35 halftime lead at Georgia Tech before losing 82-80. Duke has lost two straight, including a 91-87 loss to rival North Carolina in the previous outing. Despite Duke holding a larg spread and winning by 10 in the first meeting -- I look at the first half.
Notre Dame averages 36.2 points per game in the first half (66th) and Duke not far behind at 36.0 (73rd). Both teams have a higher average in tonight’s situation. Notre Dame averages 37.1 on the road and Duke 36.3 at home on the year. [[ad:athena]]
Notre Dame has had some impressive leads at halftime this season. In ACC play, Notre Dame led UNC (30-29), Georiga Tech (50-35) and Virginia Tech (42-35) at halftime but lost those games by one, two and 14 points. Duke has scored at least 33 points in the first half in 10 straight games and allowed 33 and 41 points in the last two.
Duke has averaged 36.2 points in conference play and allows 35.6. Without two subpar performances from Clemson (22) and Georgia Tech (25), that average is 38.6 points allowed per first half in eight ACC games.
In the first meeting, the halftime score was 41-34 (75) in favor of Duke. The game ended 75-65 in favor of Duke. The second half produced 65 points compared to the 75-point first half.
The Blue Devils rank 322nd in defending the three this season (38.4%). The Fighting Irish rank 13th in the country with 38.7% from deep and 26th in effective field goal percentage (54.9%). Notre Dame went 5-of-12 (41.6%) from three in the first half versus Duke, and Duke went 5-of-10 (50%) versus Notre Dame.
Duke only attempted five threes in the second half and Notre Dame nine. Both teams cool down after half, which has been a theme in ACC play for Duke and Notre Dame.
Game Pick: First Half Over 68.5 (1u)
West Virginia at Texas Tech (-6)
This is the most anticipated game on the slate, as the rematch between these two has been highly touted. West Virginia escaped with a one-point victory thanks to 10-consecutive made field goals to end the game eclipsed with Miles McBride jumper with six seconds remaining. Matt McClung had a chance at the buzzer, but the shot was off, and the Mountaineers won 88-87.
Since then, Texas Tech has won three straight, beating LSU, Oklahoma and Kansas State. West Virginia is 2-1 SU, losing to Florida and beating Iowa State and Kansas. In WVU’s last two road games, they have played Kansas State and Iowa State, who are a combined 1-18 in conference play and 6-16 at home.
West Virginia now won three of the last four meetings after that comeback win, but Texas Tech has won the previous two in Lubbock, TX versus the Mountaineers. Over the last four games this season, West Virginia has allowed 80.7 points per game, 79 or more in three-of-four. In road games, West Virginia allows 71.3 points per game on the road, but excluding Kansas State’s 47-point outing, that average is 76.2.
West Virginia’s defense is falling off slightly, while Texas Tech’s picked up the pressure holding Oklahoma to 52 points at home and Kansas State to 62 on the road. In West Virginia’s road games, they allowed 71 or more points in five out of six. I like Texas Tech’s offense to be too much at home for West Virginia’s defense who is trending in the wrong direction.
Game Pick: Texas Tech Team Total Over 73.5 (1u)
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Texas Tech and Alabama Moneyline Parlay (-112)
Going off Texas Tech to score, I like them to win the game outright as well. The spread is trending towards Texas Tech heavy and grew from -5 to -6. For Alabama, they are coming off their first loss in conference play of the season.
Texas Tech has won the last two meetings at home versus West Virginia and if not for their late blunders, they would have won the first meeting. Texas Tech has played limited action at home with only five Big 12 games in Lubbock. The Red Raiders are 2-3 SU with losses to Baylor (68-60), Kansas (58-57) and Oklahoma State (82-77 OT).
As stated previously, West Virginia has not had much competition on the road lately with Kansas State and Iowa State. West Virginia lost by two to an injured Texas squad and 14 to Kansas in two earlier road contests. This will be the most challenging road test of the year for West Virginia versus a team that wants revenge.
Alabama’s matched up with South Carolina, fresh off their first SEC loss of the season. This could be a smash spot for Alabama as South Carolina lost by 16 to Mississippi State in their last outing, a home game.
Alabama is 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a road favorite and 10-3 ATS in the previous 13 games overall. South Carolina is 1-5 ATS in their previous six games as a home underdog and the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between the SEC foes.
Alabama was on a 10-game winning streak before going 1-2 SU in their last three games. South Carolina is 2-5 SU in their previous seven outings and lost six straight to Alabama overall. I do not see the Crimson Tide losing two straight, especially versus a team they have not lost to since 2016. Alabama will be missing Herb Jones, which will be a loss, but I have faith this team can overcome his absence. He ranks fifth on the team in offensive rating (105.8) but second in usage rate (24.0%). He has not scored more than seven points in the last three games and they could finally play better without his injury holding him back.
In 13 of Alabama’s 15 wins this season, they have scored 78 or more points and South Carolina has allowed 75 or more in all seven losses. If Bama hits that key “75" number, I like the Tide to roll tonight and their Team Total opened at 81.5, an encouraging sign for backing Bama.
This parlay is -112 on DraftKings and -124 on FanDuel.
Game Pick: Alabama and Texas Tech Moneyline Parlay (1u)
