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College Basketball continues tonight with a full slate of games. However, the ACC will only have two teams taking the floor, Syracuse and Virginia.
Much like the NBA, College basketball has become obsessed with the three-point shot. In 1987, the first year college basketball incorporated the three-point line, teams averaged just 9.2 attempts a game. Through the first portion of the 2021-22 season, teams are averaging 22 shots a game from behind the arc.
However, while attempts from three have skyrocketed over the last few decades, teams are converting from downtown at a historically low clip. In the first month of the college basketball season, teams are shooting an average of 33.04%. If this trend is to last the entire season, it will be the third consecutive season where the three-point percentage was under 34%. There was never a season where the three-point percentage was under 34% before 2018, proving that most teams are still struggling to adjust from when the NCAA moved the three-point line back to the FIBA International length—22 feet, one-and-three-quarter inches.
From a betting perspective, teams knocking down threes at a high percentage see a big advantage. The top ten teams in college basketball with the highest three-point percentage are 59-22 straight up, 41-37-1 against the spread, and hitting the over 63.29% of the time (50-29).
With that said, let’s jump into my favorite ACC College Basketball bets for Tuesday’s slate. All odds are reflective at the time of writing.
Best Bet #1 - Virginia Cavaliers -5.5 (-110 PointsBet)
Virginia has won four of their last five, improving to 6-3 on the year. Their only loss during that stretch was a one-point defeat to a competitive Iowa team. Tony Bennett and his side will be able to continue their current winning form as they have a favorable in-state matchup against the Jame Madison Dukes. The two reasons why: defense and ball security.
The Cavaliers are 49th in defensive efficiency (via kenpom.com) and allow opponents to score only 56.2 points per game (sixth-best in the NCAA). Meanwhile, James Madison is 201st in offensive efficiency and turns the ball over on 20.3% of their offensive possessions.
just gonna watch this on replay
— Virginia Men's Basketball (@UVAMensHoops) December 5, 2021
🔶⚔️🔷#GoHoos pic.twitter.com/6DODwyr1yT
Offensively is where the Cavaliers have struggled this season, but they will be able to do enough against a James Madison team who is letting opponents get to their spots on the floor. This season, the Dukes are allowing teams to shoot an effective field goal rating of 51.7%.
The strength for this James Madison team, and the reason they have been able to get off to a 7-2 start, has been their ability to force turnovers. They are averaging 16.7 takeaways per game (34th in the NCAA). However, Virginia will be the best team they have played up to this point and offset this strength due to their proven ability to take care of the ball. The Cavaliers are averaging just 6.7 turnovers in their last three outings and have a +30 turnover margin through their nine games this season.
This line has had some crazy movement. It opened up at -5.5 and went up to -6.5 with some early action on the Cavaliers. It then dropped all the way to -4 at some books before moving back up to -5.5. While we likely missed the best number at -4, I am still more than happy to take this at -5.5.
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Best Bet #2 - Villanova Wildcats -8.5 (-110 PointsBet)
The No.6 Villanova Wildcats will travel to New York to take on the Syracuse Orange in a non-conference matchup taking place in Madison Square Garden. As shown in the table above, the Wildcats are top ten in three-point percentage, which is the perfect recipe for defeating Jim Boeheim’s zone defense.
Whether Syracuse plays a 2-3 zone or a 1-3-1 zone, the Wildcats have the personnel to overcome it. In a 2-3, Villanova has a variety of players who can be placed at the free-throw line to distribute and exploit the gaps. If the Orange come out in a 1-3-1, Jay Wright will place Eric Dixon in the post and have the rest of his players behind the three-point arc to take advantage of the open corners. Villanova has three players shooting 40% or better from behind the arc (minimum 30 attempts).
𝐓𝐎𝐆𝐄𝐓𝐇𝐄𝐑 pic.twitter.com/mVYoL8UD6I
— Villanova MBB (@NovaMBB) December 5, 2021
The Wildcats also match up well against the Orange defensively. They are 45th in defensive efficiency, allowing just 93.1 points per 100 possessions. They have the athleticism to switch on ball screens, which will allow them to interfere with Syracuse’s goal of getting shooters like Joe Girard III and Buddy Boeheim open on the perimeter.
Take Villanova with the points in a neutral site matchup. I would play this out to -9.5.
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