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As they have every week of the BIG Ten this season, the NBC Sports EDGE Analysts are back to serve up their favorite plays for the week. Week 7 brings with it some marquee matchups and key conference tilts. What matchups and plays are you looking at this week?
Minnesota at Illinois: Under 39.5 (-110)
Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
Bret Bielema is not a home underdog often. It has only happened four times with Illinois.
However, when it has happened the Under has cashed all four times. The scores of those four Unders averaged 36.7 combined points per game and went Under 39.5 points three times and three-straight.
Quarterback Tommy DeVito is out for Illinois, so there is not much to like for the Illini offense outside of the running game. Looking at both of these teams, the best players are running backs Chase Brown (Illinois) and Mohammed Ibrahim (Minnesota).
Both teams also rank in the top 10 in time of possession with Minnesota #1 in the country, so expect a heavy dosage of both backs. The Illini’s defense has been stellar all year and I do not think they get blown out at home. However, rather than backing Artur Sitkowski and Illinois on the spread, we roll with the Under.
Looking for a deeper dive into Michigan/Penn State? The NBC Sports college analysts break down the Battle at The Big House, Bama/Tennessee, and so many others on the slate this weekend. Share your bets and learn what Vaughn Dalzell, Brad Thomas, and Eric Froton are betting Saturday at 11A Eastern on the NBC Sports EDGE YouTube page.
Maryland at Indiana: Over 61.5 Total Points
Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas)
This week we go back to the Maryland full game Over. Last game, we cashed over 59.5 thanks to a 26-point fourth quarter. This week the Terrapins travel to Bloomington, IN, and the total on BetMGM is 61.5. I am on the over in this game. Led by Taulia Tagovailoa, their offense is 24th in the nation in total offense, but only 39th in scoring offense. However, they are still scoring 34 points per game.
Defensively, they have some work to do. Maryland is allowing 22.67 points per game and should shut Indiana entirely down. Therein lies the sweat for this play. We need Indiana to carry their part of the total. The Hoosiers have done well scoring this season, averaging 24.3 points per game. Connor Bazelak should do enough to push the ball down the field and keep them competitive. Defensively, they have been giving up a lot of points and have not been the most physical team.
Maryland is just 2-4 to the over, and Indiana is 3-3; however, in a match-up of fast-paced offenses, we should hit the over.
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Michigan State vs. Wisconsin: Wisconsin Alt Spread (-9.5)
Zachary Kruger (@ZK_FFB)
Fresh off the firing off head coach Paul Chryst, Wisconsin went out and trounced Northwestern 42-7 in Week 6 under interim head coach Jim Leonhard. Perhaps the most surprising part of that game was quarterback Graham Mertz‘s 299-yard, five-touchdown performance, but Braelon Allen still got his work on the ground, rushing 23 times for 135 yards on the afternoon.
One of the most run-heavy teams in the nation (57.7%), Wisconsin should give the Spartans trouble both on the ground and through the air. Michigan State’s pass defense continues to struggle on the season — allowing 292 passing yards per game, but this is a defense that also got blown out at home by a run-heavy Minnesota team, losing that game 34-7.
In three Big Ten contests, the Spartans are 0-3 ATS and have yet to score more than 20 points in any of those games. Wisconsin’s inspired win over Northwestern — who yes, is a one-win team — came in dominant fashion. They easily covered as 10-point favorites and could become the latest team to kick Sparty while they’re down. Wisconsin opened the week as five-point favorites, with the betting public already driving this game up. Wisconsin’s offensive strength is in their running game, but Graham Mertz proved capable of torching a bad defense through the air last week. I will juice this one up a bit and pick the Badgers to walk away double-digit winners.
Nicholas Singleton, RB, Penn State: Over 63.5 Rush Yards @ Michigan
Eric Froton (@CFFroton)
If the Nittany Lions are going to beat Michigan, a large portion of that success will likely be due to their sensational freshman running back, Nicholas Singleton, who has helped PSU improve from 108 rushing YPG last year to 196 YPG this season. For his party, Singleton averaged 10.5 carries per game over his first four collegiate contests, rushing for 376 yards on 42 carries for a superb 8.9 YPC average.
In their last game against Northwestern, HC James Franklin took off the training wheels and plied his new five-star running back with 21 carries for 85 yards and a touchdown. His snap count increased from an average of 12 over the first four games to 29, indicating Franklin is now ready to put aside the rotation he employed earlier in the year now that we are in Big Ten conference play.
The Nittany Lions are taking on a stout Michigan front that ranks fifth in rushing yards allowed, but they have played one of the 25 easiest schedules in the country to this point as well. The best offense the Wolverines have faced to date is Maryland and the Terps are a pass-heavy unit that were still able to run for 134 yards despite not having anyone remotely as talented as Singleton. With Penn State likely to give him 20+ carries in a tight, defensive contest, I expect the sheer volume of touches, and his elite talent level, to push Singleton Over 63.5 rushing yards. His number is currently being listed at 79.5 in the already developed props markets, so if you do not think he is able to clear 63.5, shop that Under for a better line.
Enjoy the games and enjoy the sweat!
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