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(All odds via PointsBet Sportsbook)
The Music City Bowl is one of the newer bowls, having only been around since 1998 with it’s inaugural game being played between Virginia Tech and Alabama, where the Hokies walked away 38-7 winners.
For a game that is played in Nashville, Tennessee, this season’s Music City Bowl will mark just the third time that Tennessee has appeared in the game. The Vols first participated in the Music City Bowl in 2010 when they lost to North Carolina 30-27 in double overtime, but won their second appearance in this game over Nebraska 38-24 in 2016.
For Purdue, this Thursday marks their second time appearing in the Music City Bowl, which they hope will end better than their first appearance. In 2018 when the Boilermakers participated in the Music City Bowl, Purdue endured a 63-14 beatdown at the hands of Auburn, which was also the last time Purdue appeared in a bowl game.
Tennessee looks to be heading into this one with a pretty full deck according to our Bowl Opt Out Tracker, while Purdue will be down two of its top players. Do the Boilermakers have a chance at taking down the Vols and quarterback Hendon Hooker despite being short-staffed? Let’s take a look!
What: Music City Bowl
Who: Tennessee (7-5, 4-4 SEC) vs. Purdue (8-4, 6-3 Big Ten)
Where: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN
When: Thursday, December 30th, 3:00 PM EST (ESPN)
Opening line: Tennessee -3 (O/U 63.5)
Current line: Tennessee -6 (O/U 64)
Most recent bowl result: Tennessee defeated Indiana 23-22 in the 2020 Gator Bowl. Purdue lost to Auburn 63-14 in the 2018 Music City Bowl.
Tennessee at a glance: Tennessee became one of the more fun teams to track in 2021 after head coach Josh Heupel made the switch at quarterback from Joe Milton to Hendon Hooker.
The Milton experiment was short-lived, as Hooker was named the team’s starter by Week 3’s game against Tennessee, and the Vols never looked back. Hooker would go on to throw for 2,570 yards, 26 touchdowns and three interceptions, while also proving to be a threat on the ground, rushing 69 times for 711 yards and five touchdowns.
The Vols will be without running back Tiyon Evans, who has already transferred to Louisville after rushing 81 times for 525 yards and six touchdowns this season. But wide receiver Cedric Tillman, who led the team with 57 receptions for 931 yards and nine touchdowns is expected to play.
The combination of Hooker and Heupel has proven lethal in 2021. Tennessee ranks 13th in the nation in points per drive (2.90), 21st in success rate (47.7%) and 12th in explosive play rate (15.1%). If opposing defenses aren’t careful, Tennessee can hang big points on them early.
Defensively, Tennessee ranks 56th in the nation in success rate against 41.4%, and force opposing offenses to convert long third downs by forcing third-and-long situations on 57.0% of third downs (11th). Opponents have converted on a high rate of third-and-long and third-and-medium situations against the Vols, but the Purdue team Tennessee will face in the Music City Bowl is not the same team they would have faced in the regular season.
Purdue at a glance: Telling the story of Purdue’s regular season will not sound quite the same as the story that will be told about the Boilermakers heading into this game.
For starters, Purdue is one of the worst rushing team’s in the nation, largely due to the fact that they run the ball on just 47% of standard downs, which ranks 124th in the nation. Purdue has no interest in running the ball, as they prefer to air it out with quarterback Aidan O’Connell and wide receiver David Bell.
O’Connell hit a hot streak late in the season, throwing for 390 or more yards in three of his final four games, while tossing 14 touchdowns over that span with no interceptions. O’Connell hasn’t thrown an interception since an October 23rd game against Wisconsin.
Unfortunately for Purdue, Bell has already declared himself out of the Music City Bowl, as he prepares for the 2022 NFL Draft.
Bell wasn’t just Purdue’s best receiver, but was one of the best receivers in the nation. He totaled 93 receptions for 1,286 yards and six touchdowns on the year, which puts junior wide receiver Milton Wright (57/732/7) in a big spot to step up to fill the void left by Bell.
Purdue’s passing offense ranked 10th in the nation in passing success rate (48.4%), but it’s difficult to know how much stock we should put in an offense without a receiver like Bell.
On defense, the Boilermakers lose yet another impactful playmaker in junior EDGE rusher George Karlaftis, who also opted out of the bowl to prepare for the 2022 NFL Draft.
Karlaftis was one of the best EDGE rushers of the 2021 season, totaling 54 quarterback pressures and five sacks on 35 total tackles, anchoring a defense that ranked 17th in blitz down success rate (23.4%). Purdue’s defense boasts a Havoc Rate of 16.5%, which accounts for the percent of plays their defense recorded a tackle for a loss, a pass breakup up/interception or a forced fumble, with Karlaftis accounting for 11 tackles for a loss and two forced fumbles.
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Key to the matchup: For Purdue to win this game, they will have to overcome the loss of two massive contributors on each side of the ball. Despite O’Connell’s solid play this season, in which he completed 73.5% of his passes, we can’t ignore the fact that Purdue is losing a wide receiver who accounted for 31.5% of its passing yards on the season. Purdue’s defense ranked 39th in the nation in success rate against (39.2%) this season and had a pass defense that ranked in the top-30 in nearly every advanced passing stat. Purdue has to not only find a new way to score on offense without Bell, but they also have to find a way to stop Hooker and the Vols from scoring without Karlaftis. All of the pressure to adjust to changes since the regular season ended is on Purdue, and having to adjust against the Vols and succeed is no easy task.
Best Bet: The books adjusted since this line opened at Tennessee -3, as the Vols currently sit as 4.5-point favorites against a Purdue team that is absent two of its most crucial players. In addition to being absent two of their top players, Purdue also won’t be enjoying the neutral field environment that some of these bowl games offer, as Tennessee has a short trip from Knoxville to Nashville to play in this one. Hooker has been one of my favorite quarterbacks to watch this season, and has already announced his plans to return to Tennessee in 2022. I love his game and the way Tennessee has functioned with him under center in his 10 starts. The added advantage of a virtual home game should only add to Tennessee’s chances to beat a down Purdue team. I’ll lay the points with the Vols in this one, and pick them to cover against a Purdue team that needs to learn how to win without two of its best players.
Pick: Tennessee (-4.5)
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