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The Myrtle Beach Bowl pits Tulsa’s stifling defense against and Old Dominion team that is riding a five game win streak. Here is a comprehensive preview and prediction for this AAC vs. C-USA showdown.
What: Myrtle Beach Bowl
Who: Tulsa (6-6) vs. Old Dominion (6-6)
Where: Brooks Stadium in Conway, South Carolina
When: Monday December 20, (2:30 p.m. EST)
Opening line: Tulsa (-7.5) (51.5 O/U)
Current line: Tulsa (-9.5) (52.5 O/U)
Most recent bowl result: Tulsa lost to Mississippi State by a narrow 28-26 margin against Mississippi State in the 2020 Armed Forces Bowl. Old Dominion beat Eastern Michigan 24-20 in the 2016 Bahamas Bowl.
Tulsa at a glance:
The Golden Hurricane started out slowly, dropping four of their first five contests against a tough first half schedule that featured losses to upper echelon teams like Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Houston. However Tulsa and seventh-year HC Phillip Montgomery surged to win five of their next seven games, including sweeping their final three against Tulane, Temple and SMU to achieve bowl eligibility.
Offensively Tulsa has been pretty good between the 20’s but struggles in the red zone ranking 104th in points per scoring opportunity and 106th in goal-to-go touchdown rate. They also rank 14th worst in the nation with a ghastly 4.1% turnover rate inside the 10-yard line. Davis Brin is a competent signal caller who will throw downfield, as his 10.5 air-yards per pass will attest, but his 16 interceptions leads the FBS and is a major culprit behind Tulsa’s -9 turnover ratio. The offense also hasn’t been particularly explosive, ranking 104th in EPA/Play, despite their penchant for taking shots downfield. Senior RB Shamari Brooks led the team with 922 rushing yards and six touchdowns on 4.8 yards per carry, with sophomore Anthony Watkins looking like the next in line in 2022 after averaging 7.6 yards per carry and a superb 5.1 YAC on 76 attempts for 576 rushing yards. The Golden Hurricane averaged a strong 4.7 YPC and 188 yards per game on the ground this year.
Their defense improved in the second half of the year, ranking 37th in overall defensive performance while being particularly strong against the run, posting a 21% stuff rate (12th in country) while holding opponents to a 41% rushing success rate. They rank in the top half of the nation in many key defensive metrics such as EPA/Play (44th), 7.2 yards per pass attempt (54th) and 2.1 points per drive (53rd). Since the season ended, DC Joseph Gillespie departed to become the new defensive signal caller for new HC Sonny Dykes in TCU, and offensive line coach Carlton Buckels who is moving to the west coast to be the new OL coach for Lincoln Riley at USC. It is not known at this time if either of them will be sticking around for the bowl game or if they are already on the road to their respective destinations.
Old Dominion at a glance:
When former Penn State OC Ricky Rahne took over as head coach of Old Dominion in early 2020, little did he know just how hard it would be for him and the ODU program that year, as the school opted out of the pandemic stricken 2020 fall season. The decision meant dozens of recruits entered the transfer portal and ODU lost valuable practice time with the program effectively on pause until the 2021 spring practice sessions. With a young roster and many new faces on campus, the Monarchs got thumped by Wake Forest and Liberty before losing by one score or less against three good G5 programs in Buffalo, UTEP and Marshall.
Then, with ODU limping into their game against Louisiana Tech at 1-6, they proceeded to rip off a five-game win streak against LT, FIU, FAU, Middle Tennessee and Charlotte to finish 6-6 and achieve bowl eligibility. Old Dominion exploded for 36 PPG over that stretch behind newly appointed starting QB Hayden Wolff, who threw for at least 283 yards in four of his six starts, RB Blake Watson, who rushed for 100-yards in six of his last seven games while crossing the 1,000-yard barrier, and WR Ali Jennings III who is just eight yards shy of 1,000 and erupted in their final game against Charlotte for 9 receptions, 252 and three touchdowns.
Their entire team turned around after benching QB Darriel Mack Jr. with his 2.9 yards per pass attempt and 10.5% sack rate. Simply getting live game reps for the first time in a year meant it took a while for the team to come together, but when they did they went on a run. Their rushing offense has been above average across the board in success rate and explosiveness metrics while their passing marks are still pretty low overall, but have gotten significantly better since making the switch to Wolff. They are excellent on third-downs with a 44% success rate while ranking in the top-12 nationally in medium and short third-down-situations.
The key to ODU’s resurgence has been a stingy defense that allowed 24 points or less in four of their final five games. A formidable Old Dominion front-seven pitches one of the better rush defenses in the Group of Five and does a great job of limiting chunk gains, ranking an impressive third overall in big play rate and 28th in rushing marginal explosiveness. They do a great job of forcing third down situations, but a dodgy pass rush leaves the Monarchs exposed to big plays through the air. ODU really stiffens up in the red zone, ranking in the top-25 in goal line and goal-to-go success rate. DC Blake Seiler deserves a lot of credit for turning this defense around in just half-a-season which helped to propel Old Dominion onto a five-game win streak to end the year and a trip to the Bahamas as a reward for their perseverance.
Key to the matchup:
Will Tulsa be able to maintain their continuity on defense after their DC and cornerbacks coach left for TCU? Old Dominion’s offense is clicking in both phases of the game right now, so if they can move the ball consistently on Tulsa by imposing their will on the ground and opening up deep shots to Ali Jennings, then it’s going to be tough for a mistake-prone Tulsa offense to score enough to keep the game within the 10 point spread.
Best Bet:
Both of these teams are ending the year on a hot streak, with Tulsa ending the year on a 4-1 ATS streak and ODU finishing strong going 5-0 ATS and outright. I feel like the Monarchs have the most motivation to play hard since their whole team is intact and has something to prove after missing all of 2020. Tulsa is missing multiple important coaches and could end up going through the motions after barely eking out the ability to play in a bowl. Give me a defiant Old Dominion (+9.5).
