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Fade Purdue’s Aidan O’Connell versus Penn State in Week 1

Aidan O'Connell

Aidan O’Connell

Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports

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Aidan O’Connell O/U 308.5 Passing Yards vs. Penn State

The Big Ten kicks off with Penn State (-3.5) at Purdue in both teams season-opener.

While there are very strong historical trends in this matchup, like Penn State winning nine-straight meetings and the Under being 9-2-1 since 2000, I like a player prop better in this toss-up between the Boilermakers and Nittany Lions.

Aidan O’Connell had a terrific season at Purdue last year, tossing over 3,200 yards, 28 TDs to 11 INTs and a remarkable 71% completion percentage. However, entering 2022, O’Connell lost his top three receivers, including David Bell (Cleveland Browns), and has one of the worst projected offensive lines in the Big Ten.

For Penn State, the defense ranks top four across the board for defensive line, linebackers and secondary for Big Ten preseason predictions and projections. The Penn State secondary has a few defensive backs with NFL hopes, including cornerback Joey Porter Jr. -- Phil Steele ranked PSU’s defensive backs No. 1 in the Big Ten.

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Last season, O’Connell had 371 or more yards in six games and 278 or fewer in the other six games (four starts). In the games with 300-plus passing yards, O’Connell marked up Ohio State, Michigan State, Northwestern, Tennessee, Minnesota and Iowa.

The only pass defense that was good last year out of that bunch was Iowa, so O’Connell beat up on bad secondaries.

Aidan

Aidan

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Versus teams like Nebraska (233 yards on 34/45), Indiana (278 yards on 26/31) and Wisconsin (200 yards on 24/32), O’Connell had insane completion percentages but could not get the yards.

Last season, Penn State allowed 198.0 passing yards per game (15th) and 198.6 passing yards per game in 2020 (24th), so Penn State has been hard to pass on for quite some time.

I expect a similar routine versus Penn State and their elite secondary. I played O’Connell Under 308.5 passing yards at -115 odds on DraftKings. This line is 298.5 (-114) on FanDuel, which is playable as well.

Pick: Aidan O’Connell Under 308.5 Passing Yards (1u)

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