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Kentucky at Florida (-5): O/U 51.5
Kentucky used a second-half kickoff return for a touchdown then fumble recovery two plays later to set them for a 17-point lead within one minute of halftime ensuing. That was a pretty lucky cover for Kentucky last week and should not reflect on how they will play in The Swamp.
Since 2000, Kentucky has gone 5-5-1 ATS when visiting the Swamp and 1-10 on the ML.
Since 2008, Kentucky has gone 2-4-1 ATS at Florida and won only once (2018).
Florida owns Kentucky at home and has won by six or more points every home victory.
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Coming off a win versus Utah, Florida proved they are foreal and the spread moved from -3.5 for this game to -5. This line is -6.5 on FanDuel, so there is a lot of value on the -5 at DraftKings right now.
Kentucky could still be without running back Chris Rodriguez, which is terrible because they only ran for 50 yards on Miami of Ohio. Will Levis had to do it all with 303 passing yards. However, Florida out-gained Utah 451-446 in yards and held Cam Rising to 216 passing yards.
Florida has won its last eight home versus SEC East opponents and I like that streak to continue here. The Gators are 5-2-1 ATS in those eight wins (5-1-1 ATS since 2019) and 3-0-1 ATS in the past four.
I will only play Florida -5 (-110) for 1 unit we get official word that Rodriguez is out for Week 2, but either way, Florida owns Kentucky in The Swamp. Anthony Richardson and company will be too much for the Wildcats.
I would play the Gators to -7. Throw them in a ML Parlay with UCF for +104 odds.
Read here for my UCF vs Louisville breakdown.
Pick: Florida -5 (1u), Florida and UCF ML Parlay (1u)
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