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Louisville at UCF (-5.5): O/U 60.5
I have been waiting a long time for this game. The Bounce House will be rocking Friday Night!
UCF played on Thursday, while Louisville played late Saturday night, giving the Knights a rest and prep advantage, in addition to being at home playing a Cardinals squad that’s on the second leg of a back-to-back road trip.
Louisville lost to Syracuse 31-7 in Week 1 behind three turnovers and 334 total yards. Louisville was out-gained in yards 449-334 to Syracuse and lost the first down battle too (23-17).
UCF spanked on South Carolina State 56-10 and put up 600 total yards and 29 first downs on 81 total plays with one turnover. South Carolina State managed 91 total yards and nine first downs on 56 plays versus UCF.
Louisville only managed 54 plays against Syracuse, mainly because of turnovers and Malik Cunningham cannot do that versus UCF.
However, Louisville’s defense should have a difficult time stopping UCF’s uptempo offense on less rest/prep and playing two-straight road games.
When playing back-to-back road games, Louisville has lost four out of the past five dating back to 2017. Here is how they have fared in the second road game.
2017: Wake Forest 42 - Louisville 31
2018: Syracuse 54 - Louisville 23
2019: Louisville 34 - NC State 20
2020: Georgia Tech 46 - Louisville 27
2021: Wake Forest 37 - Louisville 34
In those five games, Louisville’s opponents have scored 37-plus points in four of those five games. The Cardinals are 1-4 on the ML but were favored in that game at NC State (-4).
As a dog in the second-straight road game, Louisville lost all four games by an average of 16.0 points and went 1-3 ATS, covering against Wake Forest last year (+7).
Louisville scored 17 points in the fourth quarter after being down by 10 points late in the third to steal a cover.
Lastly, Louisville has lost six-straight scenarios in which they are a road underdog following a loss. This dates back to 2018 and the Cardinals are 1-4-1 ATS in those games, per NBC’s Edge Finder.
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UCF has the better team and the atmosphere will be rocking. UCF is 31-2 on the ML in its last 33 home games and an impressive 4-1 on the ML and ATS when they are a home favorite versus Power 5 teams.
UCF beat Stanford 45-27 in 2019 and Pitt, 45-14 in 2018 as the last two Power 5 opponents coming in as road dogs.
The Knights are the right side and I expect this to close around -7 to -7.5.
I played UCF at -5.5 for -110 odds and would play this out to -7.
Throw UCF in a ML parlay with Florida too for a 1 unit play at +104 odds.
Read about Florida vs Kentucky here.
Pick: UCF -5.5 (1.5u), UCF ML and Florida ML Parlay (1u)
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