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New Mexico State at UTEP (-14): O/U 46.0
What in the heck? -14 points? That’s it?
UTEP beat them 30-3 last season at New Mexico State, so I don’t get this line.
The Miners are talented. Despite a second-half meltdown versus North Texas in the Week 0 opener followed by a blowout loss at Oklahoma, UTEP should not be just -14. This line should be closer -17 points.
UTEP is 3-0-1 ATS and 4-0 on the ML in the last four as a home favorite versus New Mexico State.
The Miners are 3-1-1 ATS (75%) at home overall in the past five meetings versus the Aggies and 4-1 on the ML (80%), per NBC’s Edge Finder.
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New Mexico State was held to zero points and 91 total yards in a 38-0 loss at Minnesota in Week 1. The Aggies recorded six first downs and five penalties with a 16:20 time of possession compared to 28:16 against Nevada in Week 0.
The Aggies only mustered up 12 points at home versus Nevada and managed 303 total yards and 16 first downs to eight penalties. I don’t expect more than 10 points from New Mexico State and think this is such a disrespectful line.
This is considered a rivalry but it will not seem like it this year. UTEP is on the rise and has one of its best teams, if not the best in the past decade, while New Mexico State is one of the worst teams in the country.
Gavin Hardison (537 passing yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs), plus the running back duo of Ronald Awatt and Deion Hankins should have their best games yet after combining for 117 rushing yards in two games.
New Mexico State has allowed 238.0 rushing yards per game in two contests (115th) and seven rushing touchdowns (2nd-most). Last week, Minnesota’s Tanner Morgan threw for 174 yards on 13 of 19 versus New Mexico State and their star running back, Mohamed Ibrahim had 132 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 21 carries.
I expect UTEP to be able to do similar numbers on the ground, but air it more, which no one has yet on New Mexico State since Minnesota did not have to and Nevada can’t throw.
I played the -14 for UTEP at -110 odds and would play this out to -16.5 / -17 for 1 unit. I think UTEP rolls.
Pick: UTEP -14 (1.5u)
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