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Navy at Air Force (-15): O/U 38.5
Every year we get three matchups between Army, Air Force and Navy -- and there’s only one bet to make.
Since 2000, the Under is 50-12-2 (80.6%, +33.45 units) when Army, Navy or Air Force play each other, per NBC’s Edge Finder.
The Under hit five-straight between service schools, 7-0-1 in the past seven and 12-1-1 in the previous 14 matchups.
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When you break it down since 2012, the Under is 26-3-1 (89.6%, +20.64 units) between the three.
Just considering Navy and Air Force, the Under is 7-2-1 since 2012 (77.7%, +4.36 units) and 16-4-1 in the past 21 meetings (80%, +10.55 units) - dating back to 2001.
Last years total of 39.5 was the lowest total since 2001 between Navy and Air Force. The final score was 23-3.
Air Force allows 16.0 points per game, which is tied-21st in the country with Ohio State. The Falcons have yet to allow more than 20 points in any game this season versus Northern Iowa, Colorado, Wyoming and Nevada.
While Air Force has not played any quality teams or offenses for that matter, Navy is not much better.
Navy is not a quality offense and that will bode well for this Under. Navy lost to FCS Delaware 14-7 in the season-opener, then was smacked at home by Memphis 37-13 before recording an upset win at East Carolina last Saturday, 23-20 in 2 OTs.
I am not sure Navy scores much in this game and considering they have 7 or fewer points in three of the past four meetings versus Air Force, sign me up for the Under.
When the academies get together the Under is so profitable not just because of the rivalries, but the knowledge and familiarity of each others triple-option based offense.
I played the Under 38.5 at -115 odds on BetMGM and would play this down to 36.5.
Pick: Under 38.5 (1.5u)
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