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Illinois at Wisconsin (-7): O/U 43.5
We have a Big Ten showdown between Illinois and Wisconsin, two teams who love to play defense.
Ohio State is the only team to score more than 17 points on Wisconsin’s defense and that was a road game for the Badgers.
When Cam Ward and Washington State came to Madison, Wisconsin, the Badgers did lose by held them to 17 points. Washington State almost beat Oregon and scored 41 points in that game.
Illinois’ backbone is its defense, which has impressive stats through four games, including ranking No. 7 in total defense. However, Wisconsin’s defense could be better and will likely prove that at home versus Tommy DeVito.
The Illinois’ quarterback has 232 or fewer passing yards versus its three FBS opponents but Chase Brown has 100-plus rushing yards in all four games.
However, Wisconsin limited Brown to 35 rushing yards last season, the second-lowest rushing total since the start of 2021. While DeVito is an upgrade over Artur Sitkowski and Brandon Peters, it’s not by much.
Wisconsin won 24-0 at Illinois last year and while I expect the Illini to get on the scoreboard, 18.5 points is too much.
Illinois has scored seven total points in the past two meetings versus Wisconsin and lost eight-straight games in Madison. In those eight losses at Wisconsin, Illinois scored 17 or fewer points in five games.
In the last seven overall meetings dating back to 2015, Illinois scored 13 or fewer points in five games, per NBC’s Edge Finder. Illinois is 1-6 on the ML and 2-5 ATS in the last seven matches with Wisconsin.
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I expect Illinois to score between 10-17 points in this matchup, so I will fade the Illini offense here.
This is 18.5 at -135 on DraftKings compared to 16.5 +102 to the Under on FanDuel.
I expect this to close at 16.5 or 17.5, so I will take the Under 18.5 Team Total for Illinois.
I would play it to 17.5.
Pick: Illinois Team Total Under 18.5 (1u)
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