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Liberty (-24) at UMass: O/U 47.0
There is money coming in on the Under in this game and that’s because people don’t think UMass will score more than 10 points in this matchup and why would you?
Umass scored 13 or fewer points in all four FBS games with a season-high 20 versus FCS Stony Brook in what will be the only win of the season for the Minutemen.
UMass did play a tight game at Eastern Michigan last Saturday, losing 20-13 after leading at halftime 10-0, but honestly, the level of competition here isn’t close and the week before the Eastern Michigan game, UMass lost to Temple 28-0!
We have a Liberty team that gave Wake Forest all they could handle in the Flame’s only loss this season. Other than that loss, Liberty has won every game but not any in blowout fashion...yet!
This is the game for Liberty to break it open and run away offensively, while limiting UMass to two or fewer touchdowns.
Liberty has won and covered the past three meetings versus UMass by convincing scores:
Liberty 62 -- UMass 17 -- Liberty was -35.5 home favorites
Liberty 45 -- UMass 0 -- Liberty was -35 home favorites
Liberty 62 -- UMass 21 -- Liberty was -23 road favorites
Give me Liberty -24 (-105) at UMass.
Pick: Liberty -24 (Risking 1.5u)
Appalachian State (-18.5) at Texas State: O/U 55.5
In Texas State’s three losses this season, they were in little to no position to win from halftime and on.
Down 14-7 at home to Nevada -- lost that game 38-14
Down 21-7 on the road at Baylor -- lost that game 42-7
Down 19-0 on the road at James Madison -- lost that game 40-13
App State lost to James Madison 32-28, but blew a 28-10 halftime lead allowing 22 unanswered 2H points to lose that game. App State smacked The Citadel 49-0 last week as a tune-up before conference road play starts here at Texas State, which was a great idea.
Appalachian State is electric on offense, remember that 63-61 North Carolina thriller? Well, in the following week, App State went on the road at Texas A&M and matched defenses upsetting the Aggies 17-14.
That trip to A&M was the only road game of the season for App State, so this Texas State trip will be the second. That should not scare anyone.
Lay the 1H -10.5 (-110) for App State and if they somehow don’t cover, we will be in a great position to live bet App State on the 2H spread.
Pick: Appalachian State 1H -10.5 (1u)
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Army at Wake Forest (-16.5): O/U 65.5
Do you remember when Army and Wake Forest played last year?
If not, let me remind you. Wake Forest beat Army 70-56 at Army. The half-time score was 28-21 in favor of Wake Forest. How could those teams score so much?
Well, both defenses are bad and Army has no way of preparing for Sam Hartman and Wake Forest’s air raid attack.
Army’s quarterback, Cade Ballard has 320 passing yards through four games with two touchdowns to one interception and a 53.6% completion percentage. Ballard and the backups cannot replicate the Wake Forest offense, so I expect another 40-plus outing from Hartman and company.
For Wake Forest, they do not normally play triple-option offenses, so they struggle to stop the run. This year, the Deacons allow 134.5 rushing yards per game (59th) and 3.78 yards per rush (62nd).
Both teams lack defense with the Black Knights ranking 101st in total defense (413.0 ypg) and the Deacons at 77th (381.4 ypg). I don’t trust either defense and that’s why I have to stay off Wake Forest -16.5 as they surrendered 21 or more points in four-straight games with 36 points allowed to Liberty and 51 points to Clemson.
The only other Power 5 teams that Army has played since 2019 was Michigan and Wisconsin, so naturally, those were lower scoring games. Wake Forest’s defense should allow Army to score more than a few touchdowns here.
I expect a shootout, so back the Over 65.5 at -110 odds.
Pick: Over 65.5 (1u)
Air Force (-10.5) at Utah State: O/U 54.5
Utah State will start Cooper Legas for the second-straight game since Logan Bonner is out for the season.
While Utah State did surprise BYU last week with 26 points and a cover, I don’t see them repeating that because BYU was caught off guard by Legas and had no way of prepping for him.
Legas is a different style QB compared to Bonner, but now, Air Force has film on Legas, and they are the Falcons are the best passing triple option team, so they can prepare for Utah State in practice, unlike Army, who cannot prepare for Wake Forest.
Utah State is 95th in total defense with 408 yards allowed per game and 108th in rushing defense with 188.4 yards per game allowed. Air Force will expose that leaky rushing defense that’s allowed 942 yards, 7 touchdowns and 4.71 yards per carry on the ground through five games.
Since 2020, Utah State is 2-6 ATS and on the ML as a home underdog (25%). The two covers and wins came against Colorado State and New Mexico -- give me Air Force who won three out of four games by 28-plus points this year.
I bought the hook and took the -10 at -125 odds. I wouldn’t mind playing the -10.5 because I believe it wins, but prefer a push over hook loss. Air Force is also out for revenge after losing 49-45 at home to Utah State last year.
Pick: Air Force -10 (1u)
Kansas State (-1.5) at Iowa State: O/U 45.0
Everyone and their mother is on Kansas State today, so when they zig, I’mma zag.
Iowa State is 10-2-1 ATS (83.3%, +7.09 units) as a home underdog under Matt Campbell, per NBC’s Edge Finder. Iowa State enters this game on a two-game losing streak and they perform well following that as well.
In the last five games attempting to avoid a three-game losing streak, Iowa State won all five games outright but were favorites, so this is an interesting line here.
Iowa State covered three out of four games as a underdog after two-straight ML losses with Campbell, but went 0-4 on the ML.
That stat might make you want to jump all over Kansas State ML, but actually Iowa State was an underdog +6, +17, +21 and +24.5.
With this spread being +1 and +1.5, I think the books are telling you this is an Iowa State get right spot and letdown opportunity for Kansas State after beating Oklahoma and Texas Tech with games against TCU, Oklahoma State and Texas over the next month.
This is a weird spot for Kansas State and everybody and I mean everybody is on the Wildcats today because Iowa State lost to Kansas. Iowa State beat and covered versus Kansas State last year and the year prior as -6.5 and -13.5 point favorites.
When Iowa State is an underdog to Kansas State, well the Cyclones are 8-2 ATS in the past 10 (10%) and covered four-straight.
We have to remember, Football in general is a small sample size each season compared to baseball, basketball and hockey. These teams have bounce back or get-right spots every few games compared to in the NBA where a bounce back can come once or twice a week.
Last note, Iowa State is going with a BLACKOUT for this game and I cannot wait. This game starts at 7:30 PM ET, so it will be under the lights with the crowd being supplied black shirts and Iowa State wearing all black on the field.
It’s time to spin in Ames, Iowa. Give me the Cyclones +1.5 and on the ML. I will be playing both.
Pick: Iowa State +1.5 (1u)
Louisville (-1.5) at Virginia: O/U 48.5
Malik Cunningham has a concussion and is out for the Cardinals, snapping a 40-game starting streak as the QB for Louisville
The last time he did not start was back in 2019.
During the season prior to Cunningham becoming a full-time starter, so in 2018, the Cardinals went 2-10 on the ML and lost nine-straight games to end the season -- losing every single road game that year.
The Louisville backup QB is Brock Domann. He has 16 total passes on the season and went 1-of-8 for 19 yards with an interception against Boston College last weekend.
This is a great spot for Virginia to get a home win and get to .500 on the season after losing to Syracuse and Duke on the road. Virginia has won the past two meetings versus Louisville and I like them to make it three-straight.
Virginia will be happy to come back home to a Louisville squad without their best player. Back the Cavs aka the Hoos at +1.5 and I sprinkled the ML (+100).
Pick: Virginia +1.5 (1u)
Other Plays (click to read)
Risk 1.5u: Buffalo ML (-125) at Bowling Green
1u: Buffalo and Illinois ML Parlay (+185)
Fantasy football guru Matthew Berry has joined the team and his two shows have you covered all season long. Spend weekdays at noon with the Fantasy Football Happy Hour and then, every Sunday at 11am getting ready for kickoff with the Fantasy Football Pregame. Watch both shows live on Peacock and catch replays for the weekday show on the NFL on NBC YouTube channel.
