Editor’s Note: Looking to place a player prop bet on this week’s NFL game? New users receive a risk-free bet up to $1,000: Sign up here and bet now with code PEACOCK.
North Carolina (-7) at Duke: O/U 66.5
We have Duke versus UNC...in football, but it’ll be good if you like points!
Sam Howell‘s departure has meant nothing to UNC as the Tar Heels found their quarterback of the future in Drake Maye (1,903 passing yards, 21 TDs, 3 INTs, 90.6 QBR).
With Maye, UNC’s offense is ranked 8th in total offense (501.0 yards per game), tied-13th for third-down offensive efficiency (50%), 23rd in red zone offense (.923) and 5th in passing efficiency (180.14).
Duke’s defense ranks 71st in total defense (381.3 yards per game), 73rd in passing efficiency (132.99), 87th in passing yards allowed (240.7) and 112th on third-down percent (44%).
The Blue Devils have not faced a quality passing offense besides Kansas this season, who put up 35 points on the Blue Devils, so those numbers are worrisome against UNC’s prolific passing attack.
Duke has played Temple, Northwestern, NC AT&T, Kansas, Virginia and Georgia Tech -- those are terrible passing opponents. UNC will be the best offense that Duke has played yet.
Looking over previous four meetings, UNC has scored 38, 56, 20 and 35 points on Duke with 56 and 35 points in the last two trips to Duke.
Maye should have no problem moving the ball down the field in this rivalry game, so rather than rocking with the spread, we will play the North Carolina Team Total Over 36.5 (-122) on FanDuel.
I would play this to 37.5.
Pick: North Carolina Team Total Over 36.5 (1.5u)
Penn State at Michigan (-7): O/U 50.5
This is a top 10 matchup of undefeated teams in Big Ten country! Let’s go!
Both Michigan and Penn State rank top 40 in total defense, time of possession, third-down defensive percentage and red zone defense.
The Nittany Lions defense has allowed 14 or fewer points in four-straight games while Michigan’s defense permitted 14 or less points in five out of six games this season.
On the year, Michigan is 5-0-1 to the Under, pushing versus UConn (59-0) and Penn State is 3-2 to the Over, but hit the Under in two-straight games (vs Northwestern, Central Michigan).
These two programs are a combined 7-3-1 to the Under (70%) this year, per NBC’s Edge Finder.
Part of Michigan’s Under streak is due to using two offensive coordinators. As a result, Michigan has not scored more than 34 points in the past three games versus quality opponents and I don’t think they do here.
The scores over the past two years between Michigan and Penn State were 21-17 and 27-17, so let’s roll with the Under 50.5 (-110).
Both teams will want to establish the run and control the clock like our next game.
Pick: Under 50.5 (1u)
Minnesota (-6.5) at Illinois: O/U 39.5
Well, we could stop betting Illinois after they cashed the Over 4.5 win total futures last week, but why stop there?
Bret Bielema isn’t a home underdog often, it has only happened four times with Illinois, per NBC’s Edge Finder.
However, when it has happened the Under has cashed all four times. The scores of those four Unders averaged out to 36.7 combined points per game and went Under 39.5 points three times and three-straight.
Quarterback Tommy DeVito is out for Illinois, so there isn’t much to like for the Illini offense outside of the running game. Looking at both of these teams, the best players are running backs Chase Brown (Illinois) and Mohammed Ibrahim (Minnesota).
Both teams also rank top 10 in time of possession with Minnesota ranking first in the country, so expect a heavy dosage of both backs.
The Illini’s defense has been stellar all year and I don’t think they get blown out at home, so rather than backing Artur Sitkowski and Illinois on the spread, let’s roll with the Under.
The Illini could be a good bet on the Team Total Under, but I trust in the Illinois defense, especially at home where they have allowed 15 total points in four games.
Totals with a O/U of 40 or less this season are 5-4 to the Under, which is slightly profitable ($55 for the $100 bettor), but I think this is another solid game to go Under.
Illinois is 4-2 to the Under this season and the two Overs went Over by less than a field goal.
I played the Under 39.5 (-110) between Illinois and Minnesota and would play this down to 38.0.
Pick: Under 39.5 (1u)
Editor’s Note: Make NBC Sports Predictor a pregame ritual every week. Play Irish Pick ‘Em for free and have a chance to win $10,000 each week. From first downs to touchdowns you can win big! Click here to get started.
Auburn at Ole Miss (-14.5): O/U 55.5
Auburn’s offense has its hands full taking on the Ole Miss Rebels defense after a 42-10 road loss to Georgia.
Auburn’s offense ranks 94th in total offense (367.2 yards per game), 96th in passing offense (218.8 yards per game) and 94th in time of possession. The Tigers pass offense has been so bad this year it ranks 114th in passing efficiency (113.77) and the Georgia Bulldogs just gave Ole Miss a script.
The Rebels defense is a tough unit that held SEC foe Kentucky to 19 points and ranks 31st in total defense (330.2 yards per game) and 50th in passing defense (212.3 yards per game).
I want to focus on the 1H of this game because Auburn is only playing its second road game (at Georgia was the other) and neither team has been all that strong in the first half of this series lately.
The last four 1H meetings between these team programs resulted in 28 or fewer points three times.
2021: Auburn 28 - Ole Miss 17
2020: Auburn 14 - Ole Miss 14
2019: Auburn 10 - Ole Miss 7
2018: Auburn 14 - Ole Miss 6
Last year’s 28-point first-half effort for Auburn should not be replicated this time around and there were no fans in the stands for 2020 meeting that had 28 first-half points.
Auburn’s offense averages 8.8 first-half points per game (105th) and are last place in the country on the road because they did not score a first-half point in the only road game at Georgia.
Auburn scored 6 first-half points versus Penn State, 14 against Missouri and 7 versus LSU. I doubt Auburn scores 10 or more points at Ole Miss. The Auburn 1H Team Total is 9.5.
The Rebels held Kentucky to 12 first-half points and Tulsa to 17 points at home, but those two squads have better offenses than Auburn. The Tigers defense is what keeps them in games and I expect them to do that here.
I played the 1H Under 27.5 points at +100 odds since we will more than likely not see a 28.5.
Pick: 1H Under 27.5 (1u)
Louisiana Tech at North Texas (-6.5): O/U 67.5
We continue to bet on North Texas games because this team is just too fun not too.
Ideally, I want to root for them to win this game, but Louisiana Tech has owned this series and won all five meetings at North Texas. This Mean Green offense can move the ball and could cover the -6.5, but there’s a much better angle of attack.
The Over is 4-1 when these two teams meet in North Texas and average 65.2 combined points per game. The scores of these five games were 73, 56, 69, 63 and 65 points.
In the last five overall meetings, the Under is 4-1 (80%), so these teams score more in Texas and less in Louisiana -- I guess that’s a law of averages.
Statistically speaking, North Texas’ defense is bad and Louisiana Tech’s is worse. The Mean Green rank 102nd in total defense (416.2 yards per game) and the Bulldogs are 121st (454.8 yards per game).
Both teams have a good opportunity to push the Over here but the best bet is the Louisiana Tech Team Total.
When they are at North Texas, the Bulldogs have scored 29 or more points every time, including 42 or more in three of the past four road trips.
North Texas surrendered 28 points to FAU, 27 to Texas Southern and and 48 to SMU at home this year. North Texas also allowed 58 points to UNLV and 44 points to Memphis on the road and 33.1 points per game on the season (113th), so this Mean Green team likes to play in shootouts.
Also, one thing I noticed watching North Texas the past year and a half, no double-digit lead is safe.
The Bulldogs finally scored 30-plus points last week with 41 versus UTEP and I like the offense to continue rolling.
I played Louisiana Tech’s Team Total Over 29.5 at -130 odds on DraftKings. I would play this to 30.5.
Pick: Louisiana Tech Team Total Over 29.5 (1u)
Louisiana Tech is also 5-0 on the ML and ATS (100%) at North Texas. The Mean Green have not beat the Bulldogs in their own stadium since the two started meeting in 2006. Louisiana Tech is +205 on the ML.
The Bulldogs at +205 will likely be a sprinkle candidate for our College Football Betting show. Tune in 11 AM ET here!
Fantasy football guru Matthew Berry has joined the team and his two shows have you covered all season long. Spend weekdays at noon with the Fantasy Football Happy Hour and then, every Sunday at 11am getting ready for kickoff with the Fantasy Football Pregame. Watch both shows live on Peacock and catch replays for the weekday show on the NFL on NBC YouTube channel.
