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NOTRE DAME AT SYRACUSE (-3): O/U 47.0
Notre Dame is so bad this season that I can’t believe they opened -2 on some books at Syracuse!
This was quickly bet from Syracuse +2 to Syracuse -1 and now -3 depending where you bet.
The Fighting Irish are 2-0 ATS in true road games this year, covering at Ohio State and North Carolina. Sounds impressive until you see Notre Dame lost to Marshall and Stanford at home.
Notre Dame pounded UNLV last week, but the Rebels were without their starting quarterback and running back. UNLV still managed 21 points on Notre Dame.
Syracuse is coming off a heart-breaking loss to Clemson, which should fuel them to get the home victory. Syracuse was up 21-7 versus Clemson before the Tigers rallied.
Syracuse was undefeated to that point, so that loss stings and sets the Orange up for a bounce back opportunity at home where they undefeated on the ML (5-0), plus 4-1 ATS (80%), per NBC’s Edge Finder.
These teams have played four times since 2014 and Notre Dame has won all four times. However, those Notre Dame teams had a different coach and totally different teams.
This Syracuse team is the best in at least a decade, while this Irish team, is more than likely the worst Notre Dame team in the past decade. Times are changing.
I risked 1.5 units on Syracuse ML at -137 odds on FanDuel. I would play this to -150, which it’s moving towards.
Pick: Syracuse ML (Risk 1.5u)
Temple at Navy (-13.5): O/U 41.0
Navy gets a favorable matchup at home versus Temple and first-year head coach Stan Drayton.
The Owls had a game last week, so the Owls did not have any extra time to prepare for Navy’s triple-option offense, which will be a problem.
Temple allows 179.9 rushing yards per game, ranking 103rd in the country. Temple’s opponents have a 4.3 yards per carry average and 10 rushing touchdowns over seven games.
Navy ranks 4th with 247.4 rushing yards per game, 5th with 1,732 rushing yards and 50th with 4.13 yards per carry.
In Temple’s five losses, the Owls permitted Tulsa to score 27, UCF scored 70 points, Memphis had 24 points, Rutgers posted 16 points and Duke put up 30 points. On the road, Temple allowed 24, 30 and 70 points this season.
Over the last three weeks, Navy scored 53, 34 and 20 points versus Tulsa, SMU and Houston.
When the Midshipmen have laid -10 or more as a home favorite, Navy has scored 31 or more points in nine of the past 10 games (90%) and 28 or more in 17 of the past 20 (85%).
I don’t think Temple will know what hit them when these see the triple-option. We need four touchdowns or three tuddies and a few field goals to hit the Over 27.5 Team Total for Navy.
Navy’s kicker is 7-for-11 (63.6%) this season and Temple has allowed opponents to score a touchdown on 15 of 21 red zone apperances (71.4%), plus kick a field goal in six of those red zone possessions (28.6%).
I played the Navy Team Total Over 27.5 at -110 odds and would not play it any further. It opened at 26.5.
Pick: Navy Team Total Over 27.5 (1u)
MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE AT UTEP (-1): O/U 52.5
This will be the first-ever meeting between these two programs and UTEP is the slight home favorite.
Middle Tennessee State has lost three-straight games and went 0-3 ATS the past three weeks. UTEP has won and covered three of the past four games and historically play better at home.
Since the start of 2020, UTEP is 10-2 on the ML at home (83.3%) and 7-5 ATS (58.3%). As a home favorite in that span, the Miners are 6-0 on the ML (100%) and 3-3 ATS (50%), per NBC’s Edge Finder.
The failed covers for UTEP as a home favorite came with lines of -8.5, -17.5 and -20.5, so I’m not worried about the 3-3 ATS mark.
The Blue Raiders rank 106th in total defense with 426.4 yards per game allowed, while the Miners are 43rd with 352.6 yards per game permitted.
UTEP has recorded 412, 501 and 425 total yards of total offense in the past three games with 41, 31 and 24 points scored. Middle Tennessee State has allowed 35, 41 and 45 points in the previous three games with 443, 581 and 590 total yards permitted.
Middle Tennessee State’s allows 31.5 points per game allowed (108th) and ranks 99th in defensive pass efficiency, so UTEP’s Gavin Hardison could have a day (1,764 passing yards), along with the running back duo of Ronald Awatt and Deion Hankins (1,080 combined yards, four touchdowns).
I like the Miners to win outright at home. I bet UTEP ML at -120 odds and would play this to -140.
Pick: UTEP ML (2u)
SAN DIEGO STATE AT FRESNO STATE (-8.5): O/U 40.5
Fresno State beat San Diego State last year 30-20 as a -2.5 point road favorite and now are laying -8.5 as a home favorite in the series.
Fresno State has won and covered two-straight games, but they came on a home underdog in a upset win over San Jose State and a blowout 41-9 victory as a -9.5 point road favorite at New Mexico. UTEP lost as a -2 road favorite at New Mexico 27-10 in Week 3.
Off that alone people will bet Fresno State but this is not the same team, specifically offense because of the quarterback switch. I believe the books are grading Fresno State a little too high versus Jalen Mayden and company.
If you haven’t heard about the Aztecs quarterback, Jalen Mayden, well he was a defensive back (hybrid) turned quarterback and led the Aztecs to two-straight wins. Before Mayden took over, the season-high for a San Diego State quarterback was 108 passing yards. Mayden had 322 passing yards in his debut versus Hawaii and 156 versus Nevada.
In Mayden’s two games, he has two total touchdowns and 537 total yards with no turnovers. His 32-yard highlight reel touchdown run versus Nevada shows you what he is capable of along with his 322 passing yards in his debut.
San Diego State has won two-straight games and three of the previous four. I think San Diego State is going to get hot and make a run at the Mountain West Title. The Aztecs three losses this year came at home versus Arizona and on the road at Utah and Boise State.
Fresno State’s four losses came against Oregon State, USC, UConn and Boise State. Yea, UConn. People don’t forget a loss like that.
The Bulldogs starting quarterback Logan Fife has two passing touchdowns and six interceptions this season with at least one pick in four-straight games. Fife recorded two interceptions and zero touchdowns in that loss to UConn on 16-of-22 passing (72.7%) for 157 yards.
The Aztecs’ defense have six interceptions on the year and should get one or two here, while Fresno State’s defense has two interceptions and two fumbles recovered in seven games.
I grade San Diego State’s offense and defense higher than both Fresno State’s units and believe the Aztecs can win this game outright to continue streaking.
San Diego State will keep it close, so grab the Aztecs at +8.5 for -110 odds and sprinkle the ML at +270 odds.
Pick: San Diego State +8.5 (1u), San Diego State ML (0.25u)
Cincinatti at UCF (-1): O/U 55.5
This game opened Cincinnati -1 and was bet over to UCF -1 as the Knights are in a bounce back spot at home.
UCF lost its previous game 34-13 but the score does not indicate how close that game was.
ECU got out to a quick 17-0 start before UCF climbed back to 17-10 in the third quarter. ECU extended its lead 27-13 late in the fourth before scoring a garbage time touchdown and making it look worse.
UCF didn’t look great, but they are a quality bounce back team going 12-3 on the ML in the last 15 games following a loss (80%) and 7-0 on the ML in the last seven games following a loss and returning as the home team.
For the Bearcats, they allowed SMU plenty of explosive plays and Ben Bryant struggled in the red zone, which is concerning against a run-heavy UCF team and the nations best red zone defense.
UCF averages 242.2 rushing yards per game (6th) and 5.44 yards per carry and while Cincinnati’s defense ranks top 50 in both rushing yards allowed per game (120.1) and yards per carry (2.81).
Cincinnati kicked six field goals versus SMU and had one blocked. The red zone offense ranks 33rd in the country but hasn’t played like it over the past three games, which will be a problem versus UCF’s No. 1 ranked red zone defense (57.7%).
The Bearcats have played one top 50 rushing offense and Cincy lost 31-24 at Arkansas. We don’t know how good this Cincy defense is because they have played nobody since Week 1, sorry Indiana, Tulsa and Miami of Ohio.
Over the last three games, Cincinnati survived at Tulsa late, then was given all they could handle from USF at home before hitting the road at SMU and barely escaping that comeback bid. Luck is running out for the Bearcats.
Now, Cincy goes on the road to “The Bounce House” which is one of the toughest places to play.
The Knights have won 32 of the past 35 home games (91.4%) and went 18-2 in the previous 20 versus AAC opponents (90%), per NBC’s Edge Finder.
UCF and Cincy both have six turnovers lost all season and with how the Knights play defense and run the ball, UCF has the edge in this game. I believe that’s what the line movement from Bearcats -1 to Knights -1.
I played UCF’s ML at -115 odds and would play this out to -140.
This is in contention for our best bet for Saturday’s show, which has cashed four-straight.
Pick: UCF ML (1.5u)
Northwestern at Iowa (-10.5): O/U 37.5
This O/U opened at 31.5, which would have been the lowest total ever and has moved up to 37.5.
In the last five meetings between these two programs, the Under hit all five times, per NBC’s Edge Finder. The totals were 46, 46.5, 35, 42.5 and 40.5 in those five matchups.
Iowa was laying -12 at Northwestern in the previous meeting and won 17-12, not covering. Despite Iowa’s offense being much worse in 2022 than 2021, the spread flips to Iowa -10.5 and -11 at home, so they are confident this is a Hawkeyes spot.
It doesn’t matter whether or not Spencer Petras or Alex Padilla starts for Iowa, because the Hawkeyes are going to run the ball for a majority of this game and so should the Wildcats.
Northwestern’s rushing defense ranks 112th in the country at 187.6 yards per game. Iowa has two leading rushers in Leshon Williams (267 rushing yards, 3.7 ypc) and Kaleb Johnson (260 rushing yards, 4.3 ypc).
While their numbers won’t blow you away, they might this Saturday. Northwestern’s defense is so bad that they could allow Iowa’s running game to have a day.
Maryland’s Roman Hemby had 179 rushing yards and three touchdowns, Wisconsin’s Brandon Allen recorded 135 rushing yards and Penn State’s Nick Singleton totaled 87 rushing yards plus a touchdown on Northwestern over the past three games.
Penn State won by 10, Wisconsin won by 35 and Maryland won by 7 with a backup quarterback. Iowa has a better defense than all those teams, so I believe the Hawkeyes can win by two-plus touchdowns because Northwestern shouldn’t score more than two touchdowns, if that.
Let’s take Iowa in a bounce back spot at home. You can play this multiple ways as the spread is -10.5 and -11 at books such as DraftKings and FanDuel.
I played the Hawkeyes -9.5 at -138 odds on FanDuel and the -10 at -135 odds on DraftKings.
I wouldn’t talk anyone off the -11 if that’s all you have, but I wanted that -10 with Iowa in case of a push.
They will be kicking field goals and won’t be scoring that many points, so every point counts with this offense.
Pick: Iowa -10 (Risk 1u)
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