In the table below, you’ll find the Adjusted Thor Line (ATL). ATL is a system based on power ratings, computer models and real-time betting data that I devised for determining line value. ATL does not consider injuries, COVID absences, or situational spots. That’s where the handicapping comes in.
The lines in the table below are from the perspective of the home team.
All lines courtesy of PointsBet Sportsbook. My picks are in bold.
| Day | Away | Home | PB Line | ATL | ATL side | Line value |
| 12/10 | Florida Atlantic Owls | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles | 9.5 | 7.3 | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles | 2.2 |
| 12/10 | Pittsburgh Panthers | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | 7.5 | 4.5 | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | 3.0 |
| 12/11 | UTEP Miners | North Texas Mean Green | -10.5 | -11.7 | North Texas Mean Green | 1.2 |
| 12/11 | Arizona State Sun Devils | Arizona Wildcats | 11.5 | 10.2 | Arizona Wildcats | 1.3 |
| 12/11 | San Jose State Spartans | Nevada Wolf Pack | 3 | -4.0 | Nevada Wolf Pack | 7.0 |
| 12/12 | Minnesota Golden Gophers | Nebraska Cornhuskers | -10.5 | -3.4 | Minnesota Golden Gophers | 7.1 |
| 12/12 | Alabama Crimson Tide | Arkansas Razorbacks | 32 | 28.2 | Arkansas Razorbacks | 3.8 |
| 12/12 | Georgia Bulldogs | Missouri Tigers | 13 | 14.2 | Georgia Bulldogs | 1.2 |
| 12/12 | Illinois Fighting Illini | Northwestern Wildcats | -14.5 | -13.1 | Illinois Fighting Illini | 1.4 |
| 12/12 | Northern Illinois Huskies | Eastern Michigan Eagles | -6 | -5.5 | N/A | N/A |
| 12/12 | Western Michigan Broncos | Ball State Cardinals | -2.5 | 2.8 | Western Michigan Broncos | 5.3 |
| 12/12 | Rutgers Scarlet Knights | Maryland Terrapins | -8 | -5.2 | Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 2.8 |
| 12/12 | Houston Cougars | Memphis Tigers | 5 | 2.7 | Memphis Tigers | 2.3 |
| 12/12 | Wake Forest Demon Deacons | Louisville Cardinals | -1 | -6.4 | Louisville Cardinals | 5.4 |
| 12/12 | Utah Utes | Colorado Buffaloes | -2 | 4.5 | Utah Utes | 6.5 |
| 12/12 | UAB Blazers | Rice Owls | 7 | 7.4 | N/A | N/A |
| 12/12 | Akron Zips | Buffalo Bulls | -32.5 | -31.1 | Akron Zips | 1.4 |
| 12/12 | Coastal Carolina Chanticleers | Troy Trojans | 13 | 8.7 | Troy Trojans | 4.3 |
| 12/12 | Central Michigan Chippewas | Toledo Rockets | -11 | -3.0 | Central Michigan Chippewas | 8 |
| 12/12 | Wisconsin Badgers | Iowa Hawkeyes | 1.5 | 4.2 | Wisconsin Badgers | 2.7 |
| 12/12 | Navy Midshipmen | Army Black Knights | -7 | -11.7 | Army Black Knights | 4.7 |
| 12/12 | Michigan State Spartans | Penn State Nittany Lions | -15.5 | -14.5 | Michigan State Spartans | 1 |
| 12/12 | North Carolina Tar Heels | Miami Hurricanes | -3 | -0.5 | North Carolina Tar Heels | 2.5 |
| 12/12 | Duke Blue Devils | Florida State Seminoles | -5 | -4.5 | N/A | N/A |
| 12/12 | Washington Huskies | Oregon Ducks | -6 | -2.1 | Washington Huskies | 3.9 |
| 12/12 | Tennessee Volunteers | Vanderbilt Commodores | 16 | 15.0 | Vanderbilt Commodores | 1.0 |
| 12/12 | Boise State Broncos | Wyoming Cowboys | 11.5 | 7.4 | Wyoming Cowboys | 4.1 |
| 12/12 | Appalachian State Mountaineers | Georgia Southern Eagles | 9.5 | 10.0 | N/A | N/A |
| 12/12 | Louisiana Tech Bulldogs | TCU Horned Frogs | -21.5 | -17.8 | Louisiana Tech Bulldogs | 3.7 |
| 12/12 | LSU Tigers | Florida Gators | -23 | -18.2 | LSU Tigers | 4.8 |
| 12/12 | Oklahoma State Cowboys | Baylor Bears | 5.5 | 4.7 | N/A | N/A |
| 12/12 | USC Trojans | UCLA Bruins | 2.5 | 6.7 | USC Trojans | 4.2 |
| 12/12 | Auburn Tigers | Mississippi State Bulldogs | 6.5 | 6.2 | N/A | N/A |
| 12/12 | Virginia Cavaliers | Virginia Tech Hokies | -3 | -9.8 | Virginia Tech Hokies | 6.8 |
| 12/12 | Utah State Aggies | Colorado State Rams | -13.5 | -14.2 | N/A | N/A |
| 12/12 | San Diego State Aztecs | BYU Cougars | -17.5 | -18.4 | N/A | N/A |
| 12/12 | Fresno State Bulldogs | New Mexico Lobos | 12 | 7.6 | New Mexico Lobos | 4.4 |
| 12/12 | California Golden Bears | Washington State Cougars | 2 | -4.4 | Washington State Cougars | 6.4 |
| 12/12 | Stanford Cardinal | Oregon State Beavers | 3 | -1.0 | Oregon State Beavers | 4.0 |
| 12/12 | UNLV Rebels | Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | -20 | -12.0 | UNLV Rebels | 8 |
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Arizona State Sun Devils (-11.5) at Arizona Wildcats (Friday)
ATL: ASU -10.2
Incredibly, neither of these teams have won a game this season. To be fair, because of cancelations and the late start to the Pac-12 season, ASU has played only two games, and Arizona has played four.
There’s an old cliche in rivalry games that you “throw out the records,” with a handicapping corollary holding that one typically wants to be on the underdog, especially if they’re getting double-digits. And especially if the double-digit underdog is at home.
But we we must disobey such unspoken rules for reasons mainly having to do with Kevin Sumlin.
His starting QB, Grant Gunnell, will almost assuredly not play after injuring his shoulder on the first snap against UCLA two weeks ago. If Gunnell is out, true freshman QB Will Plummer will draw the start.
Plummer is not ready. In 67 passes this year, he’s completing 53.7% on 4.5 YPA for 305 yards and a 0/3 TD/INT rate. He’s also been sacked eight times.
To hear Kevin Sumlin tell it, that’s more on the shoddy offensive line than it is the freshman quarterback. Poor offensive line play has been a theme for Arizona this year. It’s the reason Gunnell’s shoulder got screwed up: A teammate blew a blocking assignment on the first offensive play from scrimmage against the Bruins and Gunnell got lit up.
So what we have here is a three-star, pro-style true freshman quarterback who appears to be multiple years away from being field-ready playing behind a wretched offensive line (Arizona’s 4.25 sacks allowed per game is fourth-worst in the nation), with precious few weapons surrounding him. Stanley Berryhill III is the only receiver on Arizona with over 10 receptions, 130 yards receiving, and one TD catch.
Now for the truly bad news. Arizona State, the opponent, ranks No. 1 in the entire nation in defensive line havoc rate. And the Sun Devils rank No. 4 in the nation with 4.0 sacks per game. This is not how Will Plummer wants to be spending his Friday night.
Arizona State outplayed USC in the opener but coughed up two touchdowns in the final minutes to lose a 28-27 heartbreaker. COVID cancelations kept them off the field for almost an entire month before they came back to lose 25-18 to SP+ No. 40 UCLA. ASU HC Herm Edwards admitted his team was sluggish and rusty. But the Sun Devils did finish that game with a 65% postgame win expectancy, and a +3.8 postgame adjusted scoring margin.
The 0-2 Sun Devils easily could be 2-0. And their athletic backfield is going to take aim at a Swiss cheese Arizona front-seven that allows 273.5 rushing YPG, second-worst in the nation ahead of only Bowling Green.
Arizona State is better than people think. And, if it’s possible, Arizona might be worse -- the fightin’ Sumlin’s have lost a program-record 11 straight games, with 10 of those losses coming by double-digits. This is a really bad matchup for a really bad team.
Nevada Wolf Pack (+3) vs. San Jose State Spartans (Friday in Las Vegas)
ATL: Nevada -4
This is an awesome game that’s flying under the radar: the winner goes to the Mountain West title game!
Originally scheduled to be played in San Jose, the tilt was moved to Las Vegas by the Mountain West due to COVID-19 restrictions in Santa Clara County. It was the second-straight home game that’s been moved on the Spartans, following last week’s makeshift switcheroo of venues for the Hawaii game out to Honalulu, a game SJSU won.
With Santa Clara’s restrictions ongoing, San Jose State’s strange odyssey continues. The Spartans flew straight from Honolulu to Las Vegas, where they spent the past week. Not a situation any college kid is going to complain about, but inarguably an ongoing distraction as players haven’t been home to campus or practiced at their home facility in over a week.
The Spartans have navigated that wonky schedule and managed to stay unbeaten at 5-0. Nevada comes in at 6-1, with their only loss coming when they stubbed their toe in a 24-21 setback in Hawaii a few weeks ago. This game moving into the state of Nevada feels like good news for the Wolf Pack, because all six of their other games have been played in Nevada this fall, and they’ve won them all.
These teams have similar offensive profiles, in that both are strong throwing the ball, and neither is particularly strong running it.
Where they diverge is on defense. Nevada is decent against both the run and pass, and settle in at a respectable No. 59 SP+ defensive ranking. San Jose State, on the other hand, is decent against the run, but poor against the pass, No. 71 in success rate against, No. 82 in completion percentage against, No. 88 in air yards per pass. In addition, Nevada has a special teams advantage.
With my numbers -- ATL believes Nevada should be favored by four, a seven-point line swing! -- the matchup, and the situational spot all pointing towards Nevada, I’ll back the underdog to win outright and end SJSU’s undefeated season.
Colorado Buffaloes (-2) vs. Utah Utes
ATL: Utah -4.5
This game was moved from Friday night to Saturday morning, noon EST kickoff, to replace the canceled Ohio State-Michigan game on FOX.
My numbers say Utah should be favored -- by 4.5! But the advanced numbers suggest this is a good matchup for the undefeated Buffaloes. And so I’m going to defy my numbers, and my initial read on this game and back the Buffs.
This is a very different Utah team than we’ve seen in previous seasons. Former South Carolina QB Jake Bentley is running the offense, and not particularly well (64.1% completions, 3/4 TD/INT rate, 6.3 YPA). New starting RB Ty Jordan is averaging just under 100 yards per game, but the freshman has also lost two fumbles in three games, including a crucial one against Washington.
The passing-game is hilariously one-dimensional. H-back Brant Kuithe, a 6-foot-2, 230-pound tweener, has 16 catches on 27 targets. The highest-targeted receiver, Solomon Enis, has six receptions on nine targets. Jordan has seven catches on 10 targets.
It probably won’t surprise you to hear, then, that Utah is one of the nation’s least explosive offenses -- No. 114 in IsoPPP, No. 106 in marginal explosiveness, and No. 95 in explosive play rate (hat tip to ESPN’s Bill Connelly), nor that the offense becomes predictable and bogs down in money situations (No. 120 in points per scoring opportunity).
The Utes try to compensate for the utter lack of big plays in the offense by nicking you to death -- by striving for efficiency (which is why Jordan especially needs to knock off his fumblitis issues... Utah’s offense must work laboriously for everything it gets).
Utah is a grappler that can’t strike. And that’s a problem against the Buffaloes. Because Colorado has a glass jaw. When they are beat, they will be beat by explosive plays. The Buffs rank No. 115 in defensive IsoPPP, No. 95 in defensive marginal explosiveness and No. 73 in defensive explosive play rate. Utah simply isn’t built to take advantage of that weakness -- they have neither the playmakers, the quarterback, nor, for that matter, at this point, the offensive strategy.
This by no means suggests that Colorado has a bad defense. Far from it. The Buffaloes don’t strike, but they’re quite skilled at wrestling, better at it than Utah’s offense, certainly. Defensively, Colorado is built around trying to keep you off schedule -- and they’re willing to sacrifice the occasional big play to get that done. Colorado ranks No. 4 in defensive success rate, No. 8 in defensive marginal efficiency, and No. 16 in 3-and-out percentage.
The contrarian side of me took a look at this card and immediately wanted to side with the 1-2 Utes getting short points on the road against the undefeated Buffaloes, especially with my system suggesting that the wrong team is favored. But after a deep-dive into the handicap, as long as Colorado shows up, this feels like a really bad matchup for Utah’s limited offense, which may be in for a 3-and-out fest.
Minnesota Golden Gophers (+10.5) at Nebraska Cornhuskers
ATL: Nebraska -3.4
The Gophers are reportedly down upwards of 20 players between injuries, opt-outs and COVID issues. So be it.
This spread is absurd. Nebraska shouldn’t be laying double-digits to any halfway decent team. And so long as Minnesota is at least 90% of the team that beat Purdue 34-31 on Nov. 20 -- the Gophers were down a bunch of players then too, don’t forget! -- you betcha my hometown squad is still a halfway decent team.
Yes, Rashod Bateman, Daniel Faalele, and several other contributors will not be in the lineup. But the Gophers still have steady veteran QB Tanner Morgan, and, probably more importantly, especially in this matchup, RB Mohamed Ibrahim.
I say in this matchup, because the forecast in Lincoln on Saturday is calling for overcast conditions with projected winds between 15-16 mph. The Action Network has shown that since 2005, 57% of games at winds of 13 mph go under the total. Wind notoriously wreaks havoc on passing games, increasing the importance of the run game.
Ibrahim was made for games like this. Tough to tackle and durable, Ibrahim has run for 817 yards and 13 TD on 5.3 YPC this year, with the Gophers ranking No. 24 in rushing success rate and No. 7 in offensive stuff rate.
The Gophers’ offense, ranked No. 17 SP+, hasn’t been the issue this year. Its defense, ranked No. 90 SP+, has. That defense lost a ton of talent over the offseason. If nothing else, the defense is more experienced than it was when it got torched for 47 PPG in October losses to Michigan and Maryland. Ever since, a stretch Minnesota has gone 2-1, the defense improved to 26.7 PPG.
If the wind limits Nebraska’s capacity to throw on Saturday, that would be to Minnesota’s advantage -- the Gophers have one of the nation’s worst pass defenses.
The 2-3 Gophers are playing for a .500 regular season, which I think still matters. The 2-4 Cornhuskers will be left home for bowl season if there’s any justice in the world (this year, as you may know, everyone is eligible for bowl season regardless of record).
The Gophers had been playing improved ball before getting the last two weeks off, which means they’ll also come in more rested. Minnesota is also a strong road team, 8-2 SU in their last eight away from home. I’ll take the Gophers to stay within the number.
Fresno State Bulldogs (-12) at New Mexico Lobos
ATL: FSU -7.6
I’ll take my chances laying 11 with Fresno against New Mexico’s fifth-string true freshman quarterback making his first collegiate start.
New Mexico QB1 Tevaka Tuioti suffered a concussion last month and is out, QB2 Trae Hall is extremely questionable with a ribs injury he suffered last month, preseason QB3 Brandt Hughes was lost for the season in camp, and QB4 Connor Genal broke his left (non-throwing) wrist in last weekend’s 17-16 upset win over Wyoming.
QB5 Isaiah Chavez, the true freshman, is expected to draw the most unexpected of starts for the Lobos.
Going back to last week’s win over Wyoming, it broke New Mexico’s 14-game losing streak, the longest in the FBS. It was the first time New Mexico had won since September 21, 2019. Does that make this a hangover spot for the Lobos? It’s a ridiculous question, but also a legitimate one.
We should note that just because the Lobos won, didn’t mean they played well. The Lobos finished with a 25% postgame win expectancy and benefited from the absence of Wyoming’s starting running back.
Fresno State, 3-2, actually has 3.9 second-order wins, an indication that they’ve been a full win better on the field than their record indicates. Fresno finished with an 84% postgame win expectancy last week in a deceiving double-digit 37-26 loss to Nevada.
Heading into the regular season finale, the Bulldogs are playing good football under first-year HC Kalen DeBoer. And unlike some other programs at the moment, they not only want to play, but they want to keep playing.
Earlier this week, DeBoer said of the possibility of continuing the season beyond the New Mexico game: “I think anything we can do to continue to play football … it’s what we’ve put all the time and effort (into) and stayed focused during six to eight long months after March 12th when we left - we wanted to stay focused to play the games. I think the team would be all in favor of that and I certainly am.
USC Trojans (-2.5) at UCLA Bruins
ATL: USC -6.7
My only concern is that this line, not even having to lay a field goal with the Trojans, is a little fishy. Then again, the market has been higher on UCLA than I have been this year, and, to be fair, at 3-2, Chip Kelly’s bunch has outperformed expectations.
But the Bruins are not in the Trojans’ phylum in quality. The 4-0 Trojans had closer-than-expected wins over the Arizona schools in the first two games but got their act together the last two games and decked Utah and Washington State, respectively, by 16 and 25 points.
USC has big talent, and a clear path to both a Pac-12 title and an undefeated season. I expect the Trojans to roll, here.
Baylor Bears (+5.5) at Oklahoma State Cowboys
ATL: OSU -4.7
Dave Aranda’s first Baylor team, in hindsight, looks probably just about how we should have expected it to look. The defense is strong, No. 36 SP+, and just held Oklahoma to 27 points in a game the offense was consistently putting it in bad spots.
But that offense. Yeah. That’s going to be an offseason remodel project.
Baylor ranks No. 90 SP+. It’s run game ranks No. 120 in success rate, with a mediocre offensive line and a running back group that has been waylaid by injuries. HC Dave Aranda said John Lovett isn’t likely to return from injury this week, Craig “Sqwirl” Williams is out for the year, Trestan Ebner is doubtful with an ankle injury, and hammer back Qualan Jones is questionable with an undisclosed injury.
Aranda told reporters that Jones has the best shot of playing against Oklahoma State this week. Jonah White, originally buried on the depth chart, came off the bench to replace an injured Ebner in last week’s loss to Oklahoma. Aranda and OC Larry Fedora are praying that at least Jones is able to give it a go this week so White has a platoon partner against the Pokes.
And while Baylor hasn’t been able to run, QB Charlie Brewer’s lack of zip on throws has stolen all flair from the passing offense. Brewer can still get it where it needs to go in the short and intermediate areas. But defenses absolutely do not need to respect his arm beyond 20 yards. Which, of course, exacerbates Baylor’s running issues, since more defenders wind up closer to the line of scrimmage.
That might read like a lot of pessimism for a team I like this week. But in truth, the team I’m picking against, Oklahoma State, is just sort of a slightly richer man’s version of Baylor. The Pokes also play good defense, No. 22 SP+. And they also (bafflingly) can’t get out of their own way on offense (No. 62 SP+).
Chuba Hubbard has vanished from the Okie State team the past two weeks. HC Mike Gundy told reporters he has not practiced with the team recently, though Hubbard has not yet announced an opt-out. With Hubbard’s backup LD Brown injured, Dezmon Jackson has been filling in as the workhorse back. Jackson has consecutive 100-yard games, though Gundy had issues with his efficiency last week.
I’ve heard whispers that Hubbard and Brown will both be out again. Unfortunately for OSU, I’ve also heard that star WR Tylan Wallace is unlikely to play. That absence would hurt the most. Wallace suffered a knee injury late in the third quarter in last week’s upset loss to TCU and is considered questionable on the injury report.
With QB Spencer Sanders nothing more than an average Big 12 quarterback, and the Pokes’ running game way down, Wallace is the straw that stirs the offensive drink for OSU. When Wallace got hurt against TCU, the offense went into the tank.
Oklahoma State’s offense is easy to deal with when he isn’t on the field. Especially for a defense as strong as Baylor’s. Consider this: Last week, in a game Wallace played two-plus quarters with an 7-92-1 receiving line on 11 targets, Okie State forced five turnovers. The Pokes cashed those five turnovers into just seven points.
OSU’s offense, even with a singular talent like Wallace, has been broken all season -- and incredibly, it appears to be getting worse by the week. If Wallace isn’t around on Saturday, it will almost assuredly set a new low. Oklahoma State without Tylan Wallace and their top-two RBs, to me, is a team that is not too dissimilar, qualitatively, to Baylor. Yes, even a Baylor team down to potentially its fifth-string running with a quarterback that can’t throw on a line over 20 yards.
Gimme the underdog to spring the upset.
Washington State Cougars (+2) vs. California Golden Bears
ATL: WSU -4.4
This spread is an overreaction to Cal’s fluky 21-17 upset win over Oregon last weekend, the 1-3 Bears’ first win of the season. Cal managed to hold onto that lead over the final 20 scoreless minutes of the game courtesy of two Oregon fumbles in the back-half of the fourth quarter. Cal was outgained by almost 100 yards.
Justin Wilcox’s teams at Cal have had an M.O. of being good on defense and bad on offense. Not this one. It is No. 78 SP+ on offense and No. 80 on defense. Cal isn’t even good at the little stuff -- No. 100 SP+ in special teams. They previously lost to three mediocre-to-middle-of-the-road-P12 teams in UCLA, Oregon State and Stanford.
While Cal may have won some betting tickets by beating Oregon last week, Wazzu certainly didn’t inspire any confidence when they got their doors blown off 38-13 by USC. Remember, that was in that weird Sunday spot in a game that was pushed back a day due to COVID. And boy was it an odd game; USC WR Amon-Ra St. Brown scored four TD in the first quarter before most college fans remembered the game was on, giving USC a 28-0 lead. Not much happened of note after that.
While Wazzu’s defense is going to continue to be problematic (No. 106, terrible against both the run and pass), its offense is humming under first-year HC Nick Rolovich (No. 12 SP+). Wazzu also has a big special teams edge in this matchup.
My numbers think the wrong team is favored -- ATL sees 6.6-points of line value on the WSU side. I think Wazzu springs an upset that maybe shouldn’t be considered an upset.
North Carolina Tar Heels (+3) at Miami Hurricanes
ATL: Miami -0.5
The Hurricanes have typically outclassed inferior competition this year. But steps up in competition have exposed their holes.
Miami has faced three top-30 SP+ teams, Clemson (2), Virginia Tech (25) and Louisville (30). Against Clemson, the Hurricanes were rocked 42-17, their only loss of the season. Miami beat Louisville 47-34 with a 42% postgame win expectancy, and beat Virginia Tech 25-24 with a 46% win expectancy.
In large part because of those underwhelming wins, the 8-1 Hurricanes have only 6.4 second-order wins (-1.6) against the No. 35 SP+ schedule, not the most impressive resume.
Especially when you consider the resume of their opponent.
The 7-3 Heels gagged away winnable three-point losses to FSU (65% postgame win expectancy) and Virginia (86%) and has 8.1 second-order wins, albeit against the No. 67 SOS.
In this matchup, I think where UNC gives Miami a lot of trouble is downfield passing. Tar Heels OC Phil Longo’s hybrid Air Raid is about completing passes and taking deep shots when your man has the best of it.
Miami’s pass defense ranks No. 72 in completion rate against and No. 126 in air yards per pass. UNC’s passing offense ranks No. 12 in completion percentage and No. 10 in adjusted net yards per attempt.
The Hurricanes have also had issues stopping the run, and UNC has one of the nation’s best halfback duos, which Longo uses to great effect to keep linebackers honest.
Miami QB D’Eriq King has thrown for 2,334 yards on 64% completions with a 20/4 TD/INT rate, and, with sack yardage omitted, run for 608 yards on 7.0 yards per carry. King is the team’s best runner as well.
When he isn’t performing magic, the tent pole collapses. Miami’s offensive line is bad -- the Hurricanes surrender more TFL than any ACC team, and they rank No. 85 in havoc rate allowed -- making it tough for Cam’Ron Harris to truly inflict damage.
As a team, UNC’s most pronounced weakness -- by far -- is its run defense. The pass defense, on the other hand, is solid.
UNC’s weak defensive front should at least be able to play to a patty-cake draw with Miami’s poor offensive line; UNC is just going to have to find a hero or two to corral King on scrambles and Sam Howell and his buds should take care of the rest.
Tar Heels outright.
Two for the road:
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (+21.5) at TCU Horned Frogs
ATL: TCU -17.8
Wake Forest Demon Deacons (+1) at Louisville Cardinals
ATL: Louisville -6.4
2020: 48-47-1 (50.5%) ATS
Lifetime (2014-Present): 588-516-17 (53.2%) ATS
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