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Favorites come in all shapes and sizes in college football. While double-digit spreads are a relative rarity at the pro level, those numbers can vary wildly on Saturdays as teams dip in and out of conference play or step up (or down) a level in competition.
And while it’s often easy to be tempted to take a handful of points and hope for the best with a significant underdog, sometimes the favorites are favored for a reason. Each week our College Football staff will share their picks for which “chalk” favorite of 10 points or more will both win and, more importantly, cover the spread. (Note: We look at underdogs as well.)
Here are our staff’s picks for Week 3, with some big numbers spread all across the country:
Vaughn Dalzell (@VMoneySports): Cincinnati (-22) over Miami (OH)
Miami’s four-year starter at quarterback, Brett Gabbert, is injured, so Aveon Smith will make his first career start against an FBS squad. This is a neutral-site game, but it’s in Cincinnati, so it’s really a home game for the Bearcats.
Cincinnati’s new QB, Ben Bryant, has former experience against Miami when he was with Eastern Michigan, and that will help the Bearcats’ coaching staff. Miami will struggle to score and the Cincy offense should be able to move the ball.
The ground game for Cincy looked good against Arkansas, totaling 113 yards and a score on 31 carries. Miami held Kentucky to 50 rushing yards, but that was against a backup running back and a new offensive line playing together for the first time. The Bearcats are more than three touchdowns better than Miami without Gabbert.
(YTD Record: 1-1 ATS)
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Eric Froton (@CFFroton): Cincinnati (-22) over Miami (OH)
It’s been a tough start to the season for Miami (OH), losing their entrenched starting quarterback Brett Gabbert in a 37-13 Week 1 loss to Kentucky and ranking 119th nationally in returning defensive production. Replacement QB Aveon Smith is a lightly-recruited, dual-threat option who was ranked as a low three-star athlete that was considered the 2,185th-best prospect from the 2020 class. He completed 14 of 22 passes for 155 yards and a 3-to-1 ratio in his first career start last week against FCS foe Robert Morris. His second start, in Paul Brown Stadium against the vaunted UC defense, is another matter entirely, however. Good luck!
On the other side, Cincinnati lost a hard-fought opener to a very strong Arkansas team that just crushed South Carolina. The Bearcats are turning over their roster following a CFP Playoff appearance, but there are succession plans in place and HC Luke Fickell will want to maximize the live game reps to help their defense gel heading into conference play. Four-star backup QB Evan Prater challenged for the job in camp and will want to perform well behind senior starter Ben Bryan, so I expect Cincinnati to be motivated to score all game long. I doubt Miami scores 10 points, which means UC rolls to an easy cover.
(YTD Record: 1-0-1 ATS)
Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas): Georgia (-13.5 1H) over South Carolina
This might be one of the more comforting chalk lines we get this weekend. Georgia has yet to be tested, but is that because they’ve played two cupcakes, or because HC Kirby Smart has that defense retooled and reloaded? I’d like to lean toward the latter. The Bulldogs have owned this matchup in large part thanks to that defense. In 2020 the Bulldogs got out to a fast 28-10 first half, and last year it was 28-6. I expect much of the same with a strong defense and a confident Stetson Bennett.
In the offseason, the Gamecocks went out and got Spencer Rattler as an improvement at the quarterback position. With just two touchdowns against three interceptions, I’m not quite ready to call Rattler an improvement. Yes, he’s a gunslinger. However, he makes ill-advised throws which will cost him against this stingy Georgia defense. If you want to one-up your bet, back Rattler to throw an interception at almost any price.
South Carolina struggled on the road against Arkansas. They had three turnovers and went 3-of-10 on third down. The Gamecocks couldn’t protect the quarterback against the Razorbacks’ defense. Despite not having one sack on the season, Georgia should get to Rattler due to South Carolina’s poor pass protection. If Bennett can continue to move the ball down the field, they will start to convert more red zone chances. Laying less than two touchdowns in the first half for this Georgia defense seems like something I can get behind. Take the Bulldogs to cover the -13.5 at halftime.
(YTD Record: 1-1 ATS)
Zachary Krueger (@ZK_FFB): Rutgers (-17.5) over Temple
Rutgers is off to a 2-0 start that includes a 22-21 road win over Boston College in Week 1. The Scarlet Knights have outscored their opponents 88-28 to start the season, going 2-0 ATS after covering a 48.5-point spread last week. Perhaps more impressive is that Rutgers has gotten off to a hot start despite starting QB Noah Vedral (upper body) missing each of the first two weeks. There’s a chance Vedral could go in this one, although it appears unlikely at this time. I’d expect QB Evan Simon to get the nod if Vedral is unable to go.
In regards to Temple, the Owls won a 30-14 home game against Lafayette last week but were trounced by Duke, 30-0, in their season opener. Simply put, Temple - despite its best efforts - is a program that’s hard to take seriously against even mid-level FBS programs. Since 2020, the Owls are 5-16 both outright and ATS. In their Week 1 loss to Duke, Temple got outgained 500-179 in offensive yards while averaging a dismal 3.1 yards per play. I like Rutgers to cover in a dominant road win.
(YTD Record: 2-0 ATS)