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Favorites come in all shapes and sizes in college football. While double-digit spreads are a relative rarity at the pro level, those numbers can vary wildly on Saturdays as teams dip in and out of conference play or step up (or down) a level in competition.
And while it’s often easy to be tempted to take a handful of points and hope for the best with a significant underdog, sometimes the favorites are favored for a reason. Each week our College Football staff will share their picks for which “chalk” favorite of 10 points or more will both win and, more importantly, cover the spread. (Note: We look at underdogs as well.)
Here are our staff’s picks for Week 7, with some big numbers spread all across the country:
Vaughn Dalzell (@VMoneySports): Troy (-16.5) over Texas State
Texas State upset Appalachian State last week and now go on the road to Troy for a major letdown spot.
While Texas State surprised me (and the entire country) last week, I don’t think that’s quite who they are. On the road, the Bobcats were blown out 42-7 by Baylor and 40-13 at James Madison earlier this season. Troy is coming off a 17-point home win against Southern Miss and have three straight victories after also beating Marshall and Western Kentucky.
In addition to those three wins, Troy has covered four straight spreads and are 5-1 ATS this season, failing only to cover as a 37.5-point favorite in a 38-17 Week 2 win. I don’t see Texas State scoring more than two touchdowns here, so I will rock with the Troy Trojans as my Chalk pick for Week 7.
(YTD Record: 1-5 ATS)
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Eric Froton (@CFFroton): California (-14.5) over Colorado
Colorado just ended the ill-fated tenure of former HC Karl Dorrell, who led the Buffs to a promising 4-2 record in 2020 behind the Pac-12’s leading rusher, RB Jarek Broussard. But with Colorado just 4-13 since the pandemic season and sporting a dreadful 0-5 record this year, interim HC Mike Sanford will try to turn around a hapless CU team that ranks 130th nationally in overall defensive performance and dead last against the run.
Colorado’s post-game win expectancy has been a ghastly 1% or less in all five of their games this season. They will try to rally for a win against a 3-2 Cal team that ranks 29th in rushing offense behind four-star freshman phenom Jadyn Ott. That could spell doom for a weak Buffaloes front seven that has allowed 74 rushing yards per game above their opponent’s yearly average.
Cal isn’t all sunshine and rainbows either, as they just got beat decisively (28-9) by Washington State’s air raid attack. That being said, Colorado ranks 115th in offensive performance and is several notches down in terms of their overall competence level from a solid 4-2 Cougars team. Plus, Cal is coming off a bye and should be more than capable of beating the worst Power Five team by more than two touchdowns.
(YTD Record: 3-2-1 ATS)
Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas): Utah State (-11.5) over Colorado State
Both teams in this game aren’t great. In fact, you could make an argument that they’re both terrible. An 11.5-point spread is a lot to back for a lousy team, but let’s be honest: Colorado State is definitely terrible, at least offensively.
The Rams’ team total under has hit in seven of their last nine games. With a team total of 19.5, if the under hits they would have to hold Utah State to 31 points - a number they have hit in three games so far this season. Colorado State is 1-4 ATS this season and 0-2 ATS as underdogs of 9.5 or more. Colorado State doesn’t score enough offensively or protect the quarterback. They have been sacked on 27% of pass attempts this season, which is the worst in college football.
I’m a fan of Cooper Legas, especially when he protects the ball. He’s aggressive and makes this Utah State team hum. The Aggies’ defense will be good enough to keep Colorado State at bay and cover the 11.5-point spread.
(YTD Record: 3-3 ATS)
Zachary Krueger (@ZK_FFB): California (-14.5) over Colorado
Neither offense is particularly good in this one, but Colorado at 0-5 has been one of the worst offensive units in the nation. Ranking 129th in points per game (13.4), the Buffaloes have scored 13 or fewer points in three of their five games and managed their first 20-point performance in their most recent game, a 43-20 loss to Arizona.
Their overall record matches their record ATS, as Colorado has yet to cover in any of their five games and have failed to cover by an average of 10 points per game. Colorado has scored eight total touchdowns and head coach Karl Dorrell has been given his walking papers along with defensive coordinator Chris Wilson. Wilson’s defense, also bad (obviously), has allowed the second-most point per game on the year (43.2) and ranks 130th in defensive success rate at 53.2%.
Under interim coach Mike Sanford, Colorado will do its best to limit a Cal offense that’s averaging 25.8 points per game and is 3-2 ATS. Quarterback Jack Plummer has thrown for 1,247-8-2 on the young season, and running back Jaydn Ott has performed like one of the top backs in the nation. Ott’s 526 rushing yards ranks 24th in the nation, while his 4.16 YCO/ATT and 26 missed tackles forced both land him in the top 30.
Defensively, the Golden Bears are allowing 24.2 points per game but are coming off a touch 28-9 loss to Washington State. Cal will look to get right in what should be an easy win this weekend, but I also like them to cover the double-digit spread against a Colorado team that’s down in a painfully bad way.
(YTD Record: 4-2 ATS)
