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It’s always fun to cash a ticket of any shape or size, but there’s something special about taking an underdog and watching them go toe-to-toe with an opponent for the entire game.
Some teams deserve to be hefty favorites - we even highlighted a few we like in Week 3. But others are on shaky footing, either because of injury issues, situational circumstances or just an old-fashioned matchup against an undervalued opponent.
And while some underdogs are able to start with a handful of points and hang tight against the spread, others are able to flip the script entirely with an outright win. Just look at last week, when Eric Froton hit his second outright upset in as many weeks with Kansas beating West Virginia in overtime.
Here are our staff underdog picks for Week 3, with some big numbers spread all across the country and some more love for the upstart Jayhawks:
Vaughn Dalzell (@VMoneySports): Nebraska (+11.5) over Oklahoma
Everything has changed. Scott Frost is out in Nebraska and the Cornhuskers will attempt to shock the world.
In sports, it is normally a play-on spot when a team fires their head coach and with a program like Nebraska, this is a good time to back the Huskers. Just look at Joe Girardi and the Phillies - they’re actually good at baseball now.
Oklahoma and Nebraska met last year in Norman, and the Sooners escaped with a 23-17 home victory after Nebraska scored with a little over five minutes remaining. This rivalry is normally close, and we have yet to see what Oklahoma is really about after going 1-1 ATS against Kent State and UTEP.
Nebraska will throw everything they have at the Sooners in their first game without Frost, and you better believe that the team, fans and coaching staff are going to be hyped come Saturday. I think this has upset potential written all over it and if Nebraska wins, you get +310 or better odds on the home underdog.
YTD Record: 0-2 ATS
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Eric Froton (@CFFroton): Kansas (+9) over Houston
There’s a lot of pressure on me this week after picking two straight outright winners for my Live Dog picks, but I think this new-look Kansas team under the guidance of svengali HC Lance Leipold will be able to ride their undefeated streak into Houston and bring home a victory. The Jayhawks enter the season as the sixth-most experienced team in the country and have thrived offensively, averaging 4.9 points per drive (sixth in FBS), a 56% success rate (13th) and rank 18th in EPA/play.
Both teams are coming off emotional overtime games, with Kansas winning on a walk-off pick-six and Houston losing on a QB draw against Texas Tech. Despite having a veteran starting QB in Clayton Tune, the Cougars are still trying to find their rhythm offensively, averaging 4.86 yards per play (90th) with a 35% success rate (116th) while ranking 96th in EPA/play. That’s an issue, since the defense lost two all-conference, NFL Draft choice cornerbacks along with 33rd overall NFL DC Logan Hall from the line. As such, their production has slipped to allowing 2.4 points per drive (75th) with a 43% success rate (82nd), which doesn’t bode well for their ability to corral flourishing Kansas QB Jalon Daniels, who currently sports a crisp 90.0 PFF passing grade while completing 70% of his throws. I think Kansas keeps my outright underdog win streak in tact.
YTD Record: 2-0 ATS, 2 outright wins
Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas): Kansas (+9.5) over Houston
It’s a crazy world to live in, thinking that we are betting on the Jayhawks in football while calling them a live dog. After 39 different coaches, it looks like Lance Leipold has this Jayhawks program moving in the right direction. Much of that has to do with the outstanding play of dual-threat QB Jalon Daniels. He was impressive against West Virginia, as his ability to keep the defense guessing allowed the Jayhawks to sneak a win on the road. His stat line of 219 passing yards and three passing touchdowns, with another 85 yards on the ground, is something Dana Holgorsen must worry about all game.
Houston was one of the trendy picks to win the American. They returned 74% of total production and, most importantly, QB Clayton Tune. However, Houston had a minor setback after losing a 3OT thriller last week against Texas Tech. In two games on defense, the Cougars don’t resemble the team that allowed only 20.4 PPG last season. They have allowed 68 points this season and 688 yards of total offense.
While Daniels is a game-changer, the X factors in this game will be the defensive unit for Kansas and the offensive lines for both teams. Tune is turnover-prone, so if the Jayhawks win the turnover battle, they will be a live dog in this game. As for the Kansas offensive line, they should do well keeping Daniels upright. Both are recipes for a fun night in Houston for the Jayhawks.
YTD Record: 0-2 ATS
Zachary Krueger (@ZK_FFB): Georgia Southern (+11.5) over UAB
The Eagles marched into Nebraska as 23.5-point underdogs last weekend and effectively put an end to the Scott Frost era with a 45-42 win over the Cornhuskers. Through two games, QB Kyle Vantrease has thrown for 782 yards, five touchdowns and three interceptions while completing 64.7% of his passes. Helton and the Eagles are one of the most pass-heavy teams in the nation thus far, chucking the ball at a 64.8% rate through two games.
Now they get a chance to pull off another outright road win against a UAB team that’s fresh off a 21-14 loss to Liberty. It’s still too early in the season to know what kind of a team UAB will be, especially when you consider their Week 1 performance in a 59-0 shutout over Alabama A&M. However, the Blazers do return 8 of 11 starters on the defensive side of the ball. They also return QB Dylan Hopkins and WR Trea Shropshire, but both players have gotten off to slow starts in 2022 with Shropshire tallying just one catch for 56 yards after leading the team in receiving last season (27-703-7). Shropshire is a legit deep threat and could get one over on the Eagles this weekend. But Georgia Southern is soaring high, and could have a shot at back-to-back outright road wins despite their underdog status in this one.
YTD Record: 1-1 ATS, 1 outright win
