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It’s always fun to cash a ticket of any shape or size, but there’s something special about taking an underdog and watching them go toe-to-toe with an opponent for the entire game.
Some teams deserve to be hefty favorites - we even highlighted a few we like in Week 7. But others are on shaky footing, either because of injury issues, situational circumstances or just an old-fashioned matchup against an undervalued opponent.
And while some underdogs are able to start with a handful of points and hang tight against the spread, others are able to flip the script entirely with an outright win. Just look at last week, when Eric Froton got his fourth outright upset win of the year when he correctly predicted South Carolina’s triumph over a Will Levis-less Kentucky squad.
Here are our staff underdog picks for Week 7, with some big numbers spread all across the country:
Vaughn Dalzell (@VMoneySports): Louisiana Tech (+7) over North Texas
Louisiana Tech is 5-0, both ATS and on the moneyline, when playing at North Texas. The Mean Green have not beaten the Bulldogs in their own stadium since the two started meeting in 2006. This week, Louisiana Tech is a tempting +205 on the ML.
North Texas surrendered 28 points to FAU, 27 to Texas Southern and 48 to SMU at home this year. They also allowed 58 points to UNLV and 44 to Memphis on the road. The Mean Green allow 33.1 points per game on the season (113th in FBS), so they like to play in shootouts.
But if they get caught in another shootout this week, it’s likely the underdog makes it six straight wins in Denton against North Texas.
YTD Record: 1-5 ATS, 1 outright win
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Eric Froton (@CFFroton): Texas State (+16.5) over Troy
The Bobcats have been pretty good this year after going 4-8 last season, getting blown out by Baylor, Nevada and James Madison but beating lower caliber foes FIU and Houston Baptist by a combined 41-12. Last week they built a 30-3 lead against Sun Belt power Appalachian State before finally winning 36-24 over a team that beat Troy earlier in the year (32-28) in a game where the Trojans sported just a 33% win expectancy.
Troy QB Gunnar Watson was injured last game, with three-time transfer Jarrett Doege taking over and steering Troy to a 27-10 victory over Southern Miss. Doege will likely be under center, leading the 29th-ranked passing offense, and will need to be sharp since their run game has been terrible this season (ranked 127th overall). Texas State’s defense ranks 40th in FBS in pass defense and 20th in suppressing explosive plays.
While Troy is riding a three-game win streak, Marshall has proven to be an illusion after their win over Notre Dame and USM is afflicted with a terrible offense that can barely advance the ball forward. I think Texas State can slow down Doege and Troy’s passing attack enough to cover this 16.5 line coming off their big win over App State.
YTD Record: 4-2 ATS, 4 outright wins
Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas): Kansas (+9) over Oklahoma
You’ve heard the name Jalon Daniels; now it’s time to get acquainted with Jason Bean. With Daniels not expected to play Saturday at Oklahoma, Bean is in line to make the start. This would mark his 10th start for the Jayhawks, and luckily for them he shares a similar skillset to that of Daniels.
Taking the points with Kansas is a fade of this Oklahoma team, which has been less than impressive - especially on the defensive end. The Sooners lack the physicality on defense that you would expect from a Brent Venables-led squad. Offensively, the Jayhawks should be able to keep pace with OU. It’s up to their defense to continue to get pressure on QB Dillon Gabriel, who is expected to return to the lineup, while making his life as uncomfortable as possible.
Nine points are simply too many in this one. I’m backing the Jayhawks.
YTD Record: 3-3 ATS, 2 outright wins
Zachary Krueger (@ZK_FFB): Texas State (+16.5) over Troy
Texas State is fresh off a 36-24 win against Appalachian State, marking their biggest win of the season to date. The 3-3 Bobcats are also 3-3 ATS, and they walked away with last week’s 12-point win despite being 19.5-point underdogs. The Bobcats’ two other wins on the season came against a bad Florida International team and Houston Baptist, so the books sleeping on them is somewhat justifiable.
Texas State loves to air the ball out, ranking 45th in the nation in pass rate at 53.9%, with QB Layne Hatcher throwing for 1,505-13-7 on the year. Hatcher has been one of the more aggressive passers in the nation, ranking 16th in deep ball attempts (36) with over 400 yards and five of his scores coming on those deep balls. In last week’s game against App State, Hatcher completed a season-high 70.3% of his passes while throwing for 281-2-1.
He’ll need to crack a Troy defense that’s allowing a 38.5% success rate through the air, but both defenses are graded as two of the best in the nation per PFF. That could help the Bobcats limit a Troy offense that’s throwing at a 56.3% rate. Quarterbacks Jarrett Doege (426-4-2) and Gunnar Watson (1,447-5-6) are listed as co-starters heading into this one for the Trojans, but it was Doege who drew the start last week against Southern Miss. In that game, he was 16 of 22 passing for 231 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions, leading Troy (4-2) to their fourth win of the season.
Riding a three-game win streak, two of the Trojans’ last three wins came as underdogs against Marshall and Western Kentucky. That could be playing a role in the 16.5 points they’re suddenly laying here. Troy has been an underdog in four of six contests this season, but have proven to be better than Vegas oddsmakers believed. All credit in the world to Troy and their ability to consistently cover as underdogs early on, but 16.5 points feels like a big number to cover in a game that could be even more evenly-matched than the spread suggests. When these two teams played last season, the Trojans walked away 31-28 winners in a game they entered as 7.5-point favorites.
YTD Record: 1-5 ATS, 1 outright win
