It’s hard to believe the North Carolina Tar Heels were ranked fifth in the nation four weeks ago.
Head coach Mack Brown was pushing all the right buttons, super sophomore quarterback Sam Howell was carving up opposing defenses and Carolina was coming off an incredible 56-point performance against then-ranked Virginia Tech. All was well in Chapel Hill.
Then, UNC laid an egg at home against Florida State as 13.5-point favorites. The Seminoles went up and down the field on the Heels’ overrated defense and pulled off a wild 31-28 upset that went all the way down to the final seconds. Carolina has been pretty Jekyll and Hyde ever since with a 17-point win over NC State, 3-point loss to Virginia and 32-point win against lowly Duke. They’re an inconsistent team, plain and simple.[[ad:athena]]
This Saturday, the Heels face a Wake Forest foe that has won four straight and is really starting to find their mojo. Dave Clawson‘s squad also comes in well-rested off an open week and they’ve had two weeks to prepare for Howell and the Heels.
PointsBet Sportsbook is dealing North Carolina -13 with a total of 67.
I believe that’s too many points in a game that bookmakers believe will be a shootout. Demon Deacons quarterback Sam Hartman doesn’t hold a candle to Howell’s production, but he’s efficient and he takes care of the football. Wake Forest is the only team in the country that has played multiple games with only one turnover and they lead the nation with a +14 turnover margin. They’ve also scored in 20 of 21 red zone trips, 14 of which resulted in touchdowns.
That’ll do the trick.
The betting public is salivating at the chance to lay less than two touchdowns with North Carolina. It’s an explosive offense that has proven they can light up the scoreboard and cover big numbers. But this number is pretty fishy and it’s holding steady just under -14. That’s with around 75 percent of the tickets pouring in on the Heels.
I’ll gladly go the other way and take all those points. If the Demon Deacons can run the rock with success behind a rejuvenated offensive line and protect that precious football, they’ll be in this one all the way.
Play on Wake Forest +13.
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