@Syracuse -9.5 (opened +3.5) vs. Virginia
Virginia is still recovering from the sudden retirement of former HC Bronco Mendenhall and departure of OC Robert Anae, who incidentally is now calling plays at Syracuse. The Cavaliers needed a last-second field goal to survive a 16-14 nail-biter against in-state knockaround program Old Dominion who has a fraction of the recruiting base UVA has. In Week 2 they got locked down in a 24-3 loss by Illinois for 42 rushing and 222 total yards, while going an embarrassing 0-for-15 on third down conversion attempts and committing three turnovers. With Syracuse surging and having the advantage of hosting UVA in one of the most beneficial home fields in college football, the Carrier Dome, I see this line climbing over the key number 10 with the Orange covering double-digits.
Notre Dame - 1 (opened at -6.5) at North Carolina
This Notre Dame team lacks explosiveness and playmakers, with a jumbled backfield that is averaging 117 rushing yards per game (103rd in FBS) and 3.2 yards per carry (110th) and a passing game that ranks 107th with 180 passing yards per game and a 2-to-4 ratio. The post-Biran Kelly era is off to a rocky start and get a real test this Saturday traveling to Chapel Hill to face a UNC team that ranks 13th overall in 247Sports offensive talent rating and eighth in defensive player rating, though admittedly their D has been a sieve allowing 6.8 yards per play (112th). Their offense is chewing up yardage at the fifth highest rate in the country as sophomore Drake Maye gets his first Power Five test as a starting QB, and it’s a big one against the Irish. The Tar Heels are at least at home and could certainly upset ND if things break right now that Drew Pyne is under center.
Utah -15 (opened at -5.5) at Arizona State
Last year when Arizona State went 8-5 and had been ranked in the top-25 heading into their matchup, Utah worked over the Sun Devils for 455 total yards in a 35-21 convincing win. Coming into this contest Arizona State just got handled by Eastern Michigan 30-21 with ASU allowing an astounding 305 rushing yards on 6.0 YPC with EMU converting 11-of-15 third-down opportunities. Let that sink in. Oklahoma State had just spanked them 34-17 with Arizona State averaging 2.5 yards per carry while converting 2-of-13 third downs. It’s not hard to figure out why they’re struggling, as ASU entered the season rated 119th in returning production following a portal exodus from the program as HC Herm Edwards was forced to consider a rebuild. However a convincing home loss to Eastern Michigan and the turmoil of a recruiting investigation stemming from hosting recruits during the Covid dead period was enough to cause the school to cut the cord with Edwards and set him sailing back to the pregame studio. Utah is not here to show their rival any mercy and are looking to rack up a few skulls following their close opening week loss to Florida. This is a bad spot for ASU, as this line goes up to 17 by game time. It won’t matter though, Utah rolls here.
Texas A&M -2.5 (opened at -9) vs. Arkansas in Jerry World
Texas A&M’s 2-1 record has nothing to do with how impressive they have played thus far, losing to Appalachian State before beating a Miami team 17-9 whose wide receiver corps looked like they were outfitted with frying pans on their hands for long stretches of the game. On the other side, Arkansas had strong wins against CFP Playoff participant Cincinnati and bowl-eligible South Carolina before getting a run for their money from former motorcycle riding ex-HC Bobby Petrino‘s Missouri State program. This game isn’t at College Station, so the Aggies being favored is going to get closer to a pick when the game kicks off. Texas A&M doesn’t scare me. I’m backing the Razorbacks and grabbing it now.
Other Big Movers:
@Alabama -40 (opened at -29.5) vs. Vanderbilt
@Air Force -25 (opened -17.5) vs. Nevada
Clemson -7 (opened -10) at Wake Forest
@Tennessee -10 (opened at -3.5) vs. Florida
@CIncinnati - 15.5 (opened at (-8.5) vs. Indiana