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Halfway through the college football season, it feels like the only thing we truly know is that Georgia is a great team. Outside of the Bulldogs, Ohio State and Alabama both have significant question marks, Clemson is having major struggles, and both Iowa and Cincinnati are top-3 teams in the AP top 25 poll.
With all of the uncertainty, this season is shaping up to look like the 2007 season where it felt like nobody wanted to play for the national title. In the last two weeks of the season, there were multiple losses within the top 10 that shook up the national championship picture. This season, we have seen numerous top-5 teams fall including Clemson, Alabama, and Ohio State. At this point in the season, we are looking at a potential playoff of:
(4) Oklahoma vs. (1) Georgia
(3) Cincinnati vs. (2) Iowa
We expected the first two teams to be there, but the inclusion (right now) of Cincinnati and Iowa are the result of failed expectations at the top of college football. As we move forward into the back half of the season, expect even more fireworks and its going to start on Friday night with four really good games. There are two bets (with odds via PointsBet Sportsbook) that I am very high on.
Clemson (-14) at Syracuse
The fall from grace for the Clemson Tigers has been a shock to the college football landscape. The national champions in both 2016 and 2018, the Tigers were primed for another run to the playoff. Unfortunately, their offense has hit a major road bump, only breaking the 20-point mark two times on the season. They head to Syracuse to play a team that is 3-3 on the season but has been very competitive in their three losses, losing by a combined 13 points. Freshman RB Sean Tucker has been dynamite for the Orange this season, helping them to a 5-1 record ATS while Clemson is 0-5. Expect this game to be close with a high probability for a Syracuse upset.
Pick: Syracuse +14
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San Diego State (-9.5) at San Jose State
This game is all dependent on who’s playing quarterback for San Jose State. Starter Nick Starkel was injured in the Week 4 loss to Western Michigan and missed the next two games. In his absence, Nick Nash will draw the start. The Spartans have had mixed results, as Nash was being used as a wide receiver before taking over as the starting quarterback. In those two games, the Spartans lost ATS by an average of 17 points, extending their ATS losing streak to five games. On the other side, San Diego State is 5-0 overall and have won their last four games ATS. The success of San Diego State is the easy pick here.
Pick: San Diego State -9.5
College Football Pick ‘Em Predictor Contest
Each week, head to the NBC Sports Predictor app and submit picks for College Pick Em, a free-to-play contest with weekly cash prizes including a $10,000 jackpot. Participants can download the NBC Sports Predictor app, then search the “Special Contests” section for each week’s contest featuring three big games each week. The weekly contest will include seven different prop questions, each with multiple answer options.
Oklahoma State Points at Texas
0-20, 21-23, 24-26, 27-30, 31-34, 35-45, 46+
This Cowboys team is a shocking 5-0. On offense, they are averaging just under 3.5 YPC on a staggering 46 rushing attempts. With how Mike Gundy likes to play football, that won’t change. He loves to run the football and shorten the game. Expect a relatively low-scoring affair, just like they had with Baylor a couple weeks ago.
Pick: 27-30
Texas Points vs Oklahoma State
0-20, 21-26, 27-30, 31-37, 38-41, 42-48, 49-58, 59+
Over the last three games, the Texas offense has scored 70, 32, and 48 points. This offense is clicking with Casey Thompson under center. His ability to run and pass has given the Longhorns a much-needed extra dimension. The Cowboys don’t have enough firepower to contain the Longhorns for 60 minutes, but enough to keep the game close.
Pick: 31-37
Purdue Rushing Yards at Iowa
<30, 30-45, 46-75, 76-95, 96-125, 126-150, 151+
The Iowa defense is one tough cookie. The Hawkeyes are the No. 3 scoring defense in the nation, allowing only 13.0 points per game. A big part of that is Iowa’s 12th-ranked rush defense, allowing 90.3 yards per game. On Purdue’s side, they are 122nd in the nation in rushing offense averaging a paltry 89.4 yards per game. With RB Zander Horvath still nursing a broken leg, don’t expect the Boilermakers to do much on the ground.
Pick: 46-75
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Iowa Passing Yards vs Purdue
<120, 120-180, 181-210, 211-223, 224-260, 261+
Even though they have been dominant at 6-0, the Hawkeyes don’t have a high profile offense. Quarterback Spencer Petras leads a paltry passing game averaging 211.3 yards per game and their rushing attack isn’t much better. The Hawkeyes defense is likely to suffocate the Boilermakers and the conservative offense won’t lead to passing the ball much. Expect this number to be around the season average.
Pick:181-210
Total Points Purdue vs Iowa
0-20, 21-33, 34-42, 43-53, 54-60, 61-74, 75+
Both teams have had one game apiece that featured a large offensive outburst, with Iowa scoring 51 against Maryland and Purdue 49 against Connecticut. Outside of those games, Iowa has outscored Purdue 25.6-16.7. With the game at Kinnick Stadium, points will be at a minimum. We are likely to see a 27-17 type game on Saturday.
Pick: 43-53
Iowa State Passing Yards at Kansas State
<186, 186-220, 221-250, 251-280, 281-305, 306-345, 346+
The passing offense for Iowa State and the passing defense for Kansas State are nearly identical, both averaging around 270 yards per game. The Cyclones, led by QB Brock Purdy, have been inconsistent overall, but got themselves on the right track two weeks ago against Kansas in a 59-7 rout. Against the Wildcats, this should stay close to the average so far this season.
Pick: 251-280
Kansas State Rushing Yards vs Iowa State
<60, 60-100, 104-125, 126-150, 151-200, 201-235, 236-275, 276+
This matchup is a tough one for the Wildcats. The Cyclones are 11th in the nation giving up an average of 88.2 yards per game. Starting running back Deuce Vaughn eclipsed 120 yards in each of the first three games but has failed to amass more than 60 yards in each of the last two. In a close game, expect a few more rushing yards than Iowa State has allowed on average this season.
Pick: 104-125
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