Devaughn Cooper, WR, Syracuse vs. Purdue - Under 52.5 Receiving Yards
While I pounded the drum for everyone to get a piece of Shrader’s Over 209.5-219.5 Passing Yards early in the week, that doesn’t mean i’m blindly backing the Devaughn Cooper just because he’s listed. In Week 1 he tied for the team lead in targets with 6, reeling in four of them for 60 yards against Louisville where he ran 23 routes, the most on the team, alternating evenly between the slot and outside. Last week against UConn, he only ran 11 routes, catching all three targets for 32 yards, with Cooper being one of six receivers to receive multiple targets in the contest. His competition for playing time thrived, with Damien Alford, Oronde Gadsden, Courtney Jackson, D’Marcus Adams and Trebor Pena all going over 40 receiving yards while recording more snaps. With Syracuse’s receiver depth chart still coming together, there’s no guarantee Cooper is going to receive the kind of WR1 workload needed to clear the 52.5 receiving yards mark.
Jalen Brooks, WR, South Carolina vs. Georgia - Under 37.5 Receiving Yards
Last week against Arkansas Brooks ran 41 routes, catching 2-of-3 passes for 29 yards with an ADOT of 6.7 yards and an invisible .71 yards per route average. The fact he tied for fifth on the team in targets despite playing the most snaps in a game where SoCar QB Spencer Rattler aired-it-out for 376 passing yards is extremely troubling. James Madison transfer Antwane “Juice” Wells is the clear WR1 in this offense, with TE Austin Stogner catching all five of his targets against Arkansas. With Arkansas State transfer WR Corey Rucker now considered questionable after not playing in the first two games, and the small issue of SoCar facing Georgia’s lethal defense, this is a very logical Under 37.5 Receiving Yards play.
Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia @South Carolina - Under 60.5 Rec Yards
Last year Bowers went under this mark in 10-of-15 games, while this year he went Under in each of the first two for an overall 71% Under rate at the current 60.5 Receiving Yards line. Super-Heavyweight TE Darrell Washington is the preferred blocking option while Bowers still logged 46 snaps last week and couldn’t hit the mark. Eventually we’ll see Arik Gilbert increase his 12 snaps per game average and it’s doubtful SoCar will give Georgia much of a fight, lessening the need to throw the ball while playing catch up. I already played the hell out of Bowers’ Under 814.5 season yardage prop and i’m going with the numbers on his Under 60.5 Receiving Yardage total that has hit 71% of the time in his young career.
Lorenzo Styles, WR, Notre Dame vs. Cal - Over 42.5 Rec Yards
Last week in their upset loss to Marshall, Lorenzo Styles increased his snap count from 36 reps Week 1 against Ohio State to 65 snaps last week. In Week 1 he caught one contested deep ball out of two targets for 54 yards before truly cementing himself as the WR1 last week against Marshall. OC Tommy Rees clearly made getting Styles the ball in space a top priority for their game plan against the Herd, catching multiple short, manufactured touches allowing him to shake defenders and get upfield, reeling in 7-of-9 targets for 69 yards and 53 YAC.
Every Lorenzo Styles touch against Marshall... Common theme: Get the ball into his hands quickly. It worked.
— Tyler Horka (@tbhorka) September 16, 2022
Of course, Notre Dame needs a total effort on offense from players not named Styles and Mayer. But this needs to continue from Styles, especially with Drew Pyne at QB. pic.twitter.com/sqB75ZKZr9
With Styles lining up outside on 31 routes as opposed to the slot for 15 of them, he is being moved around the formation to create mismatches. I think this Over 42.5 Rec yards line is way too low and will go up to at least 50 Rec Yards before game time.
Christopher Brooks, RB, BYU vs. @Oregon - Under 60.5 Rushing Yards
Brooks looked great against the porous defensive front of South Florida, but he had no such luck against Baylor last week, rushing 13 times for 31 yards while fellow RB Lopini Katoa rushed nine times for 26 yards. Katoa’s PFF rushing grade of 65.5 was comfortably higher than Brooks’ 56.3 grade in the contest, with the Cal transfer looking slow and plodding, averaging just 1.38 yards after contact with a long rush of just six yards. For their part, even in their blowout at the hands of Georgia, they only allowed 138 rushing yards with a player-high of 50 yards from Kendall Milton. I think he moves closer to a split with Katoa and even though he will probably have more carries, he’s not explosive enough to beat Oregon for any big runs. I’m fading Brooks on the road against Oregon and backing the Under 60.5 Rush Yards.
Noah Cain, RB, LSU vs. Miss State - Under 37.5 Rushing Yards
Five-star junior John Emery Jr. missed the first two games with academic issues, however he is expected to be back against Mississippi State this Saturday. That’s an issue since Cain saw seven carries for 23 yards, 3.3 YPC and one touchdown Week 1 against Florida State, while Armoni Goodwin got five carries for 14 yards. However last week in a blowout over Southern Goodwin out-performed Cain receiving 12 carries for 85 yards and two touchdowns while Cain saw 10 touches for 51 yards and a touchdown. In the game, Cain didn’t receive his first touch until LSU was up 44-0 over the beleaguered FCS program. With LSU playing a stout Mississippi State front that shut down Arizona last week holding them to just 40 yards on 22 carries, and with proven vet John Emery Jr. now joining the backfield mix, Cain clearing 38 yards rushing is almost DOA. I’m all over this Under, the process is 100% on the money here.
