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College Football Early Week 4 Player Props Best Bets

J.J. McCarthy

J.J. McCarthy

Nic Antaya / Stringer

Dontay Demus Jr, WR, Maryland - u52.5 Rec Yards (DK)

Demus Jr. is coming off a pretty serious leg injury that ended his promising 2021 campaign where he reeled in 26 receptions on 36 targets for a 78% catch rate with 507 yards, 18.1 YPC and three touchdowns in just 4 ½ games before going down against Iowa. Heading into training camp his status for the beginning of the season was very much in question, but he has progressed well enough to have played in the opener against Buffalo where he caught 3-of-5 passes for 23 yards. Though he has been involved in the offense, logging 28, 29 and 42 offensive snaps in his first three contests, Demus Jr. has been an afterthought in favor of Florida transfer Jacob Copeland, five-star recruit Rakim Jarrett and all-purpose dynamo Jeshaun Jones. Last week against SMU he caught just one pass on three targets for five yards. Demus Jr. has 57 yards total through three games, yet his line is 52.5...against Michigan? UNDER, hard.

Tony Mathis Jr, RB, West Virginia - u73.5 Rush Yards, u0.5 Rush TDs (-135) (FD)

Mathis Jr. entered the season as the RB1 and has produced at a reasonable level, rushing 16 times in each of WVU’s first three contests while gaining 71,59 and 104 yards, with the 100-yard game coming last week against FCS program Towson. Unfortunately for Mathis Jr, freshman running back/tight end in name only, CJ Donaldson has emerged as a thunderous between the tackles option, rushing 29 times for 274 yards and six touchdowns for the Mountaineers. So right away I love the u0.5 rush touchdowns prop, as we have a clear goal line back while Mathis failed to score against his two P5 opponents. Adding to the degree of difficulty is a Virginia Tech defense that is led by former Penn State defensive guru HC Brent Pry, who has pitched the third best run defense in the country, ranking second in the FBS by allowing 3.16 yards per play with a stifling 27% success rate. According to PFF, VT’s sixth highest rated defensive players are DL/LBs. With an established 60/40 pecking order and a stout Hokies run defense to contend with, I love the u0.5 Rush TDs and u73.5 Rush Yards.

J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan - 021.5 Rush Yards (DK) o255.5 Pass Yards (PP)

During his first two starts, McCarthy only threw 12 and 18 passes against two of the worst programs in FBS, Hawaii and UCONN, throwing for an average of 221 YPG despite the low volume. This week Michigan turns the page from their charmin-soft non-conference slate to undefeated Big Ten opponent Maryland who is averaging 40 points per game and is coming off a 34-27 victory over pass heavy SMU who threw for 369 yards against the Terps’ secondary. While I expect a wake up call for Maryland’s offense that now contends with the fourth ranked Wolverine scoring defense, I still expect them to be far more competitive than Hawaii and UCONN, leading Michigan to keep their foot on the gas, which HC Jim Harbaugh is all-too willing to oblige. With McCarthy playing his first full game, against a credible opponent who can score a bit, I see him eclipsing both of these Overs, with the Rushing Over being my favorite of the two.

Skyler Bell, WR, Wisconsin - u36.5 Rec Yards (DK)

Bell’s 36.5 Rec yards is a classic over-correction line that is placing outsized weight on Bell’s last game against the abysmal New Mexico State Aggies, catching 4-of-5 targets for 108 yards and two touchdowns in the 66-7 blowout. Both touchdown receptions came in the second half with UW already up 35-0. Additionally Wisconsin runs so much that he doesn’t get as many catch opportunities as most other wideouts, as he ran just 13, 24 and 15 routes over the first three games, with 91% coming from the outside, which with Graham Mertz’ sub-average arm-strength can lead to inaccurate targets. This week the Badgers face an improved Ohio State defense led by new DC Jim Knowles that ranks 15th in success rate (32%) and 25th in yards per play (4.64). Bell received just two targets in Wisconsin’s first two games against Illinois State and Wazzu, catching all four targets for 21 and 17 yards. Bell is a tertiary receiving option, in a low-volume passing offense that is playing their best defense of the season thus far, while coming off an artificially inflated 108 yard two-touchdown game against a bottom-10 FBS program. All signs are pointing to an Under 36.5 Rec Yards play.