Ben Gulbranson, QB, Oregon State @ Colorado - u220.5 Pass Yards
Anthony Gould, WR, Oregon State @ Colorado - u47.5 Receiving Yards
With starting QB Chance Nolan out again this week, QB Ben Gulbranson will once again take the majority of snaps under center. Last week against Wazzu, OSU employed their preferred game plan which is to run the ball 47 times for 203 yards while controlling the clock by playing at the 122nd slowest pace in the nation. They effectively wore out the Washington State front by rotating Jam Griffin, Deshaun Fenwick and Damien Martinez, who rushed 16 times for 111 yards and looks ready to take over the OSU backfield. Accordingly, Gulbranson threw just 24 passes for 141 yards and a 1-to-1 ratio since there was no real need to put the ball in the air and risk a game-changing turnover. This week the Beavers play Colorado in Boulder, where the elevation is always a factor, against a beleaguered CU front-seven that ranks 130th in FBS against the run, while checking in at 80th versus the pass. I feel like game script-wise Oregon State will be able to play their preferred brand of football against an inferior team in Colorado that will have a tough time challenging OSU with their 113th ranked offense. I see a pretty conservative game plan that avoids putting Gulbranson in a compromising position on the road, which means he goes Under 220.5 passing yards along with his slot receiver Anthony Gould going under 47.5 receiving yards like he has 3 of the last 4 games.
Blake Shapen, QB, Baylor vs. Kansas - u270.5 Passing Yards
JT Daniels, QB, West Virginia at Texas Tech - u274.5 Passing Yards
We’ve been hearing all week about the warm, heavy winds blowing up from the south that could push 25-35 MPH winds across the great state of Texas this Saturday. While I don’t envision a Buffalo Bills/New England Patriots hurricane-esque scenario here, I am being cautious when evaluating receiving Overs in these contests and plan to wait until my Live YouTube Q&A at 11 AM EST tomorrow to go through my favorite WR plays in Texas/Oklahoma so I have a more precise understanding of exactly how the weather is shaping up. That being said, I feel like these two lines are high regardless of weather conditions, and if the forecasts are right then these lines are going to plummet tomorrow which could give us a nice little line-value cushion when these games kickoff.
Baylor takes on Kansas, with HC Dave Aranda preferring to shut down the run and control the line of scrimmage on offense as opposed to sling the ball over the field, averaging 31 passes per game (73rd in FBS) as opposed to 40 rush attempts (33rd). In addition their opponent, Kansas, plays at the 112th slowest pace nationally and is starting a backup QB, which if you factor in the wind it seems logical that HC Leipold will err on the side of caution and run the ball a little more often than normal. Though Shapen has cleared 270.5 in his previous two games, he failed to hit that mark in his first four and is coming off an injury.
JT Daniels is also just 2-for-6 in clearing the 274.5 passing yardage mark this season, with WVU returning standout freshman bruiser RB CJ Donaldson who figures to see plenty of carries as WVU is averaging 5.0 YPC and 192 rushing yards per game. As a team West Virginia ranks 27th in rushing performance and just 75th on the passing side. Their ability to run and control the game flow against Texas Tech will be vital since their pass defense ranks 124th nationally as opposed to 44th against the run. I feel like WVU HC Neal Brown would have wanted to run the ball more against Texas Tech anyway, but with the winds potentially whipping through Lubbock, we could see that 274.5 passing yards line drop before gametime.
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Dominic Richardson, RB, Oklahoma State - u80.5 Rushing Yards
Jaylan Knighton, RB, Miami vs. Duke - u59.5 Rushing Yards
I didn’t want to leave out the running backs of course, and with Jaylan Knighton I simply do not understand how Draft Kings can hang his line at 59.5 Rush Yards. He’s been banged up on-and-off all season long, clearing 27 rushing yards ONCE in five games - a 14 carry, 77 yards, 5.5 YPC showing against Texas A&M in Week 3. Besides that, Knighton has failed to average more than 3.3 YPC in any game and is sporting a brutal 60.6 offensive grade according to PFF. He also fumbled in two of the last three games and was immediately benched after each of those miscues. With Knighton already considered RB2 behind Ole Miss transfer Henry Parrish, and they’re playing Duke who is actually ranked 27th against the run but 99th versus the pass. Knighton is an easy Under play at 59.5 Rushing Yards.
This week Oklahoma State HC Mike Gundy came out and had a virtual therapy session with the press about the OSU run game. He lamented it’s lack of explosiveness and vowed to get their younger tailbacks more involved behind Richardson, who has failed to clear 3.5 yards per attempt in any of his last four games, including Arkansas-Pine Bluff. It’s not like Richardson hasn’t had opportunities, rushing 67 times in his last three games, but producing just one run of 15+ yards in the last four games while averaging a pedestrian 2.47 yards after contact in that span. So that’s why i’m puzzled at this 80.5 rushing yards line that Draft Kings and FanDuel are putting out there for us to pound the Under 80.5 Rush Yards. I love these two RB Unders as my two best bets of the week and highly recommend everyone getting on these lines while the getting is good.
