The nation’s most efficient offense welcomes one of the stingiest defenses in college football to Southern California when the Trojans of USC (4-1, 2-1 Big Ten) host the No. 15 Michigan Wolverines (4-1, 2-0 Big Ten) on NBC Saturday Night.
The Trojans have been off since losing two weeks ago at Illinois, 34-32, on a 41-yard David Olano field goal as time expired. USC overcame a 14-point deficit and took the lead late in the fourth quarter, but its defense was not up to the task on Illinois’ final drive. Jayden Maiava threw for 364 yards (30-43) and two touchdowns to pace the attack. USC defeated Purdue and Michigan State in their previous conference tilts this season.
The Wolverines are 2-0 in conference play having knocked off Nebraska and Wisconsin in their last two games. Last weekend, Michigan fell behind by a touchdown early but reeled off 24 straight points and won easily against the Badgers, 24-10. Michigan’s defense continues to be the strength of the team. They allowed just 13 first downs and 252 total yards to Wisconsin. Bryce Underwood threw for 270 yards (19-28) and Justice Haynes rushed for 117 yards on 19 carries to lead the offense.
Lets take a closer look at each school on both sides of the ball and see what numbers jump out to us.
NBC Sports has all the latest info and analysis you need, including how to tune in for kickoff, odds from DraftKings, player news and updates, and of course our predictions and best bets for the game from our staff of experts.
Game Details and How to watch No. 15 Michigan at USC
- Date: Saturday, October 11, 2025
- Time: 7:30PM Eastern
- Site: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
- City: Los Angeles, CA
- TV/Streaming: NBC, Peacock
Game Odds for No. 15 Michigan at USC
The latest odds courtesy of DraftKings:
- Moneyline: USC Trojans (+114), Michigan Wolverines (-135)
- Spread: USC -2.5 (-112)
- Total: 57.5 points
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!
Michigan Wolverines
Head Coach: Sherrone Moore
2025 Record: 4-1
Offense Ranking: 32
Defense Ranking: 7
Strength of Schedule: 23
The 2025 Michigan Wolverines have maintained a strong statistical profile under head coach Sherrone Moore, boasting a 4–1 (2–0 Big Ten) record and ranking 15th overall in SP+. Offensively, the Wolverines rank 32nd in SP+ thanks to a potent rushing attack that averages 6.7 yards per carry (6th nationally), with an excellent blend of pre-contact (3.41, 6th) and post-contact (3.26, 21st) yardage. Defensively, Michigan ranks 7th in SP+ and is stifling opponents to just 4.27 yards per play (14th) and 3.3 yards per rush (7th), while ranking 19th in havoc rate and Top 15 in multiple rushing and explosiveness metrics. Despite conservative fourth-down decisions and mediocre third-down efficiency (60th on offense, 50th on defense), the Wolverines’ balanced approach and elite line play give them a strong chance to reach double-digit wins in 2025.
The Michigan Wolverines Offense
Michigan’s offense is built around a dominant ground game that ranks 6th nationally in yards per carry (6.7) and 12th in rushing EPA, with elite production both before (3.41) and after contact (3.26). They complement the run with explosive play-action passing, posting a strong 10.1 adjusted net yards per attempt and a 20.8% explosive pass rate, good for 21st in the country. Despite these strengths, the Wolverines struggle on third downs (60th overall) and have one of the nation’s worst fourth-down conversion rates (135th). However, their elite offensive line—ranking Top 10 nationally in penalties, pressure rate, and overall blown block percentage—provides a sturdy foundation for continued efficiency and explosiveness.
Michigan Player to Watch on Offense: QB Bryce Underwood
The first-year starter has started all five games at quarterback, compiling 1,003 passing yards on 77-of-130 passing (59.2% completion) with a 3-to-1 TD/INT ratio. He’s averaging a strong 13.0 yards per completion and 8.1 adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A), though his success rate sits at a modest 45.9%. While Underwood has been generally efficient as a passer, he’s also added serious value on the ground—rushing 22 times for 197 yards (8.95 YPC), 3 touchdowns, and a stellar 59.1% rushing success rate. His dual-threat ability is evident in his 29.6% rate of 10+ yard rushes and a solid 5.00 yards before contact, though ball security is a concern with 2 fumbles (1 lost).
The Michigan Wolverines Defense
Michigan’s defense is one of the most complete units in the country, ranking 7th in SP+ with Top 15 marks in yards per play allowed (4.27), rushing success rate allowed (33.8%), and explosive play suppression (10th in marginal explosiveness). The Wolverines dominate the line of scrimmage, allowing just 3.3 yards per carry (7th), with elite pre-contact disruption (0.39 YBC, 7th) and a strong pass rush that generates pressure on 37.2% of dropbacks (18th nationally). While their man coverage is vulnerable (89th in yards/dropback vs. man), their zone coverage ranks 13th and they boast the 14th-best passing down-to-incompletion rate (40.0%), forcing mistakes even without turnovers. With Top 25 national ranks in EPA/play, points per drive allowed and third-down defense, Michigan’s defense gives them a championship-caliber foundation.
Michigan Player to Watch on Defense: Edge Jaishawn Barham
The Edge rusher has been a terror off the edge, posting 6 havoc plays in just 5 games, including 4.5 tackles for loss and 3.0 sacks. His 22.5% pressure rate on 40 pass rushes is among the highest on the team, with 8 first pressures and a staggering 36.4% pressure rate on third downs. Barham has been especially effective against the run, with 90% of his tackles coming on rushing plays and a team-leading 91.3% tackle success rate. In limited coverage snaps, he allowed just 4 yards on 3 targets, holding quarterbacks to a 33.3% completion rate and a minuscule 1.3 yards per target.
USC Trojans
Head Coach: Lincoln Riley
2025 Record: 4-1
Offense Ranking: 1
Defense Ranking: 49
Strength of Schedule: 26
The 2025 USC Trojans offense has been the most efficient unit in college football through five games, ranking 1st nationally in SP+ Offense with elite marks across the board, including top rankings in Success Rate (57.4%), Points per Drive (4.30), and Yards per Play (8.53). The Trojans boast a potent ground game (6.7 yards/rush, 2nd in rush success rate) paired with an explosive passing attack led by a 14.5 ANY/A (3rd) and 72.1% completion rate (12th), all while allowing the 12th-lowest havoc rate nationally. Defensively, USC remains a work in progress at 49th in SP+, struggling in standard downs (80th SD Success Rate) and surrendering 5.63 yards/play (81st) and a 41.1% defensive success rate (77th). Despite those deficiencies, the Trojans have generated havoc up front (12th in sack rate, 12th in DL havoc rate) and maintain a +4 turnover margin that’s helped them to a 4-1 record and strong projected path to 10+ wins.
The USC Trojans Offense
The 2025 USC offense ranks #1 nationally in SP+ and is the most efficient unit in college football, averaging a blistering 8.53 yards per play and scoring 4.30 points per drive. They dominate on standard downs with a 63.3% success rate (1st) and rank 2nd in rushing success rate (56.6%), powered by elite balance and explosive playmakers. The Trojans are equally lethal through the air, ranking 3rd in ANY/A (14.5), 2nd in EPA/dropback, and completing over 72% of passes with Top 15 rates in both deep completion percentage and yards per successful dropback (17.5). Despite playing at a slower tempo (96th in pace), USC maximizes every possession and boasts the nation’s best down-set conversion rate (85%), reflecting surgical execution and relentless efficiency.
USC Player to Watch on Offense: QB Jayden Maiava
The USC signal-caller is performing at an elite level through five starts, completing 70.5% of his passes for 1,587 yards, 11 touchdowns, and just 1 interception, good for a 93.5 QBR, which ranks 1st nationally. His explosive profile is underscored by a staggering 16.2 yards per completion and 11.0 yards per dropback, while maintaining a top-tier 58.5% passing success rate and 13.1 ANY/A. He has also added value on the ground, rushing 17 times for 76 yards and 4 touchdowns, with a strong 58.8% rushing success rate and an efficient 2.25 YAC per attempt. Maiava’s combination of deep-strike capability, efficient decision-making, and red-zone rushing presence makes him one of the most dangerous QBs in the country.
The USC Trojans Defense
The 2025 USC defense remains a mixed unit, ranking 49th in SP+ with flashes of front-seven dominance but lingering inconsistency in coverage and down-to-down efficiency. The Trojans generate consistent disruption, posting a 41.5% pressure rate (5th nationally) and 9.0% sack rate (12th), while ranking 16th in overall havoc rate and 12th in defensive line havoc. However, they allow 5.63 yards per play (81st) and a 41.1% success rate (77th), struggling to consistently get off the field on third downs (39.1% allowed, 74th). Despite those issues, USC’s defensive front compensates with elite tackling efficiency (92.5% tackle success rate, 2nd nationally) and enough havoc to complement their explosive offense in high-scoring, aggressive matchups.
USC Player to Watch on Defense: LB Eric Gentry
Eric Gentry has been the heart of the USC defense through five games, piling up a team-high 39 tackles (29 solo) while maintaining an impressive 90.7% tackle rate and generating nine total havoc plays. Gentry is a tenacious blitzer with 6.0 tackles for loss and 3.0 sacks, excelling both downhill and as a pass-rushing threat, producing 6 total pressures on just 25 rushes (24.0% pressure rate). Gentry’s instincts and timing are evident, as he also leads the team with 3 forced fumbles in addition to 3 run stops, helping limit explosive plays in the second level. While he allowed 34 yards on 3 targets in coverage, his assignment rate has been low (2.9%) and his presence remains a stabilizing force in the middle of the field.
No. 15 Michigan at USC team stats, betting trends
- USC has won 9 of its last 11 at home
- USC is 2-3 ATS this season
- Michigan is 2-3 ATS this season
- 4 of 5 Game Totals in USC games have cashed the OVER
- Game Totals in games involving Michigan have cashed the OVER in 3 of the 5 games
Rotoworld Best Bets
Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.
Eric Froton (@CFFroton): WR Ja’Kobi Lane OVER 42.5 receiving yards
USC WR Ja’Kobi Lane missed Week 4 due to injury and still reeled in four passes for 39 yards despite being hampered in Week 5 against Illinois. With a bye week to heal up, I expect Lane to return to his pre-injury form and draw enough targets to clear his 42.5 receiving yards line against a stout Michigan defensive front that will force USC to air it out if they want to win.
***
Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the college football calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between No. 15 Michigan and USC:
- Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
- Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the USC Trojans at -2.5.
- Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the under on the Game Total of 57.5.
Rotoworld has you covered with all the latest college football betting news and analysis.
Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:
- Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
- Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)
- Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
- Trysta Krick (@Trysta_Krick)
- Eric Froton (@CFFroton)
