Last weekend provided us a fantastic finish to the 150th Open after Cameron Smith went 6-under on the back 9 to storm back and defeat Rory McIlroy by one stroke. Now golf’s fourth and final major is in the books; many in the golf world are taking this time to relax and spend time with their families. Just because the year’s final major is over doesn’t mean we stop trying to find value. This week, on deck, there is the fourth annual 3M Open, hosted at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota. With just three golfers inside the Top-25, the field isn’t very strong, but we should be able to find value in the position market this week. These bets can be found on PointsBet Sportsbook:
Sahith Theegala to finish top-20 (+125)
This week feels like a huge Theegala week. I will be on him in the outright market and backing him to finish inside the top-20 at +125. After making the trip overseas to play in the Open Championship, he should find some solace in his 34th finish at St. Andrews. After a few solid rounds, he was at one point in contention. Not bad from a PGA Tour rookie playing in his first Open Championship.
This season Theegala already has six top-20 finishes. He’s a volatile golfer mainly due to his volatility off the tee. Driving accuracy is essential here; however, since the Arnold Palmer Invitational, he’s seen an increase in his driving accuracy.
Mix Theegala’s recent play with key course trends, and he should fare well this week. Getting plus odds for him to finish top-20 is a no-brainer for me.
Tony Finau to finish top-20 (-135)
Finau will be a popular bet this week in both the outright and finishing markets. He’s shown glimpses of success here with two top-30s and a T3 in 2020. The field’s a bit weaker, giving him more room to finish inside the top-20. Much like Theegala, he does have his moments where he’s inconsistent off the tee. I’m certainly taking a chance on him to have a good driving week, but he’s my favorite outright bet this week, so I will also be backing him in the position market.
Surprisingly, Finau has been solid off the tee in his last five tournaments, gaining +3.2 strokes per round. Due to his strong play off the tee, his approach play has stepped it up. If we throw out his missed cut at the US Open, he’s been in a fantastic run of form. I always get excited to play great ball strikers at any TPC course. This week will be no different.
Adam Hadwin to finish top-20 (+120)
I follow a personal rule every time I start modeling tournaments; if a golfer is in my top-5 in my primary model, I am backing him in the outright and positioning market without question. Hadwin is ranked fourth over his last 24 rounds. Despite his low numbers off the tee and on approach, he has shown glimpses of brilliance this season. For Hadwin, it’s not a matter of if he will win again; it’s when.
He’s another guy who is a course horse. He’s finished inside the top-10 in his last two trips here. He’s third in strokes gained total compared to the field and should have another strong outing. Hadwin ranking fifth in Birdie or Better gained helps his cause at a course where golfers can go low—again, trusting the course horse to cash our tickets this week.
Davis Riley to finish top-20 (+125)
Riley is a birdie getter! Ranked number one in BoB Gained among the field. Much of that has to do with his above-average driving accuracy and his high GIR hit rate. His putter also can get hot. When he’s feeling it on the putting surface, is a dangerous man. After his missed cut at the RBC Heritage, he strung together five straight top-20 finishes.
He gained +4.6 per round on APP and another 2.2 strokes OTT in his last five tournaments. Numbers like that make Davis a golfer that is hard to ignore. Let’s hope he rounds from the dreadful putting performance that he had at Travellers.
