The stage is set for the 2023 Genesis Invitational. This already-strong event has been elevated again thanks to the designated status which increases the purse size and attracts the world’s best to show up.
The host course needs no introduction. It’s Riviera Country Club, a classical design that is drooled over by the golf architecture community. The course is supposed to be all about angles and smart approach shots but at the pro level, the importance of power can’t be ignored.
Let’s hop over the betting markets and see what kind of tournament matchups catch my eye this week.
Tom Hoge over Nick Taylor - Tournament Matchup (+110)
Taylor just had a career-best week with the putting, gaining 7.4 strokes putting in Phoenix. He also gained more than two strokes around-the-green. He’s also putted very well at Riviera historically but lost strokes on approach in all seven trips.
Looking at overlapping rounds since the start of last season, Hoge has the edge 33-to-22 in terms of who posted a lower round.
So, I’m banking on a bit of putter regression for Taylor and also expect his tee-to-green journey to be a bit tougher. I’ll side with Hoge and the plus-money matchup in this one.
Rory McIlroy over Jon Rahm - Tournament Matchup (+105)
I took a stab at this matchup last week and whiffed as Rahm and his home-course advantage won out out at TPC Scottsdale.
Heading to Riviera this week, Rory is back in the driver’s seat, in my opinion.
He had this to say last year, “This is a place I’ve always, since I started coming here, I’ve loved it, loved the golf course, loved the area, love the vibe, feel like it’s a course that suits me really well and it’s sort of turned into a can’t-miss event on the PGA TOUR.”
McIlroy has the edge in overlapping tournaments versus Rahm (9-to-3) since the start of last season. I think he can grab another win, or at least get the better of Rahm, at week’s end.