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Colonial matchups: Riley’s secret weapon

Davis Riley

Davis Riley

JEFF ROMANCE/THE PALM BEACH POST / USA TODAY NETWORK

The PGA TOUR heads back to Texas for the final Lone Star event of the season.

It’s the Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club.

The host venue is a classical design that rewards patience and precision. With a unique test, I do want to lean a bit more on course history and course fit.

With that in mind, I’ve taken a look at the betting board and here are a few matchups that catch my eye.

Davis Riley over J.J. Spaun - Round 1 Matchup (+100)

Riley looked like the next breakout star last season when he rattled off five straight top 15s. That included a T4 finish at Colonial Country Club.

He’s slowed his pace quite a bit since then but did pop with a team win at the Zurich Classic, playing alongside Nick Hardy.

Also working in Riley’s favor this time around, he has a secret weapon by his side now with James Edmondson as his caddie who happens to be a member at Colonial Country Club. It will be nice to have that local knowledge when playing this week.

On the other side, Spaun WD-MC-WD on his Colonial resume and arrives with six missed cuts in his last 10 starts.

I’ll take the plus-money in this matchup and side with Riley.

Max Homa over Collin Morikawa - Tournament Matchup (+115)

These are two of the top dogs in the field this week. I wouldn’t expect either to miss the cut. I would expect this line to be close to even money, though.

They’ve played in 25 events together since the start of last season and Homa has the edge (14-10-1). The line should be flipped based on that view.

Does one have a distinct advantage at the course? Morikawa does have a better resume of results (2nd-14th-40th) but Homa did twirl a T23 last year and most of his appearances here were before he elevated his game to be a top-tier player. Homa also calls this one of his favorite courses on the tour rotation.

So, as I said above, I’m not expecting a flop from Morikawa but I do think this price should be closer to even, so I will take the value with Homa.