Week after week, the PGA Tour delivers the most exciting tournaments. Scottie Scheffler went back-to-back at the Phoenix Open in the first elevated field event of the season. This week we turn our attention to the iconic Riviera Country Club for the Genesis Invitational. Given the tournament’s elevated status, the field is stacked once again, and more importantly, there will be one super famous big cat roaming the course this week. Tiger Woods announced midweek that he would not only be hosting the Genesis Invitational, but he will be playing. BetMGM has Woods listed at +15000 to win outright. From a betting perspective, I’d be hard-pressed to find a real reason to bet on Woods. I’d likely be more excited about fading him than putting hard-earned cash on him to win.
Riviera Country Club will provide an excellent test for the golfers in the field. At 7,322 yards, the par-71 course won’t be the long test off the tee that we’ve grown accustomed to, but the tight and winding fairways emphasize strong off-the-tee play. Riviera will be a tough task for everyone in the field. While challenging, it also rewards golfers for great shots. Those who generally finish high on the leaderboard are well-rounded golfers who gain a ton of strokes tee to green. Here’s a look at the key metrics I am using this week:
Key Metrics Correlated to Winning at Riviera Country Club:
- SG: Off-the-Tee
- SG: Approach
- Good Drives
- Scrambling
- Bogey Avoidance
- SG: Tee-to-Green
- Course History
Outright Bets to Win the 2023 Genesis Invitational
Adam Scott +5500
Looking at the leaderboards over the years, there are familiar faces year in and year out. Of those faces, Adam Scott is generally near the top. The 2020 Genesis Invitational winner has seen much success here over the years. Over the last five seasons, he’s gained the most strokes at this course. He finished T4 the previous season, and Scott’s game feels like it’s back to when he was the No.1 player in the world.
Over his last five tournaments, he’s played exceptionally. He has three top-30 finishes and two top-fives. On FanDuel, his top-30 price is +175, and I played that for 0.5 units. The one blemish in that streak of brilliant play was at the Tour Championship, where he struggled all over the course. Outside of that, he’s been strong off the tee, and his putter has been rolling. Scott’s success here is enough for me to be excited about the possibility of him finishing as the champion come Sunday.
Collin Morikawa +2200
Last week, watching Collin Morikawa crumble in the wind was such a disappointment. It felt like opening a pack of eggs, and just a couple were spoiled. His game and shot profile didn’t stand a chance. In golf, it’s essential to differentiate between regression and unfortunate circumstances. His missed cut at the Phoenix Open was an outlier. Before that, he had back-to-back top-five finishes and was dynamite on approach, and he was gaining a ton of strokes putting.
The California native was one of last year’s runners-up. His game should play very well here. While he’s not crazy long off the tee, he’s deadly accurate. Hitting fairways here could be the difference between par and bogey. With the thick rough, and tree-lined fairways, less-than-perfect driving can lead to big numbers on the scorecard.
To pair with his tremendous skill off the tee, Morikawa is one of the best on approach. There does come a little worry about his putter, but over the last three years, the winner has been great T2G but just better than average putting. For Morikawa, we need to pray that he has an above-average week when hitting the putting surface. The rest of his game will lead to success here.
Xander Schauffele +1600
I was on Xander Schauffele last week, and there was a point when I thought he would be the winner. He couldn’t add enough birdies on the scorecard and eventually fell down the leaderboard with some untimely bogeys. I’m betting on him again this week because his game is so strong. Over the last 36, he’s fourth in SG: T2G, third in SG: APP, and seventh in Bogey Avoidance. Schauffele is deep enough off the tee, and he’s accurate. He gains a putting boost switching from Bermuda to Poa.
Schauffele has six straight top-20 finishes, with five being top-10 finishes. Playing him in the derivate market is on my agenda at well. I’m playing him top 20 (-125) and top 10 (+175) for 0.5 units. While Schauffele has been towards the top of the leaderboard, he’s only finished inside the top 10 once since 2018. He’s gained +33.38 strokes total, which is third among the guys in the field. He’s also third on my primary model, making him equally excited to play him this week.
Justin Thomas +1600
It feels wrong going deep with a field this stacked. I don’t want to invest more than two or three units in the outright market, given the possibility of a short golfer like Jon Rahm (+800) or Rory McIlroy (+950). Playing Justin Thomas was a strong possibility for me last week, but I laid off from betting on him at the last minute.
Since he was nearly on my card, I could pay close attention to him. His Sunday run was awe-inspiring, but it was more of a steady build throughout the tournament. Each round, he gained more strokes than the round before. His putting was remarkable for his standards, and he was always solid around the green. The most impressive improvement was the strokes he gained on approach each round. He lost strokes on approach in round one but gained more strokes than the round before in rounds 2-4. If he continues that trajectory, he will be in contention all week.
Max Homa +2200
I have this image in my head of Max Homa getting off his flight from Phoenix, headphones on, and him lip-syncing “Going back to Cali” by Notorious BIG. I mean, think about it. “Im going going, back back, to Cali Cali.” The California native is almost an auto bet anytime the golfers play in California. Over the last three seasons, Homa has been a man on a mission. He’s finished inside the top 10 here the previous three seasons, with a T10 last season and a win in 2021. He won the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, California. He also won the Fortinet Championship, which is in, you guessed it, California.
Homa’s game is great for a course that requires accuracy off the tee and gaining a ton of strokes on approach. I’ll also bet Homa top 20 (+125).
