Jon Rahm is a man on fire after winning the Genesis Invitational. He played like a beast and was a deserved winner over Max Homa. As a Homa outright ticket holder, that won’t stop me from crying every time I think back to what could’ve been if Homa had hit the fairway instead of hitting the tree. Nonetheless, Rahm is a beast and seems almost unstoppable.
Per Kyle Porter, in a span, Rahm has finished inside the top 7 in all five starts. He’s won three times and was 93-under-par in 20 rounds and has earned over $9M. According to DataGolf.com, Peak Rahm is better than Peak Anyone in the post-Tiger Woods generation. Now that we have closed the book on the season’s second elevated PGA Tour event, we turn our attention to PGA National for the Honda Classic.
Unfortunately, the Honda Classic didn’t receive the elevated status and is sandwiched between two elevated events, the Genesis Invitational, and the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The field for the Honda Classic isn’t much to write home about, only having three golfers inside the OWGR’s top 20. This is by no means a knock on Sungjae Im, but the two-time PGA Tour winner is going off at +1000. Seems fairly short for a guy with just two PGA Tour wins, even if one of those two wins came here in 2020.
Listen, if you want to single bullet Im this week, I’m not going to stop you. He’s far and away the best golfer in this field. However, this is probably the week you want to shop around and find some long shots. This tournament is difficult to win. PGA National is the most difficult non-major course on Tour. Just about every hole is affected by water. Half the holes have water directly impacting the righthand side of the hole. If you miss on those holes, pray it’s to the left. But even with the difficulties faced from the tee box, PGA National is certainly a second and third-shot golf course. This week’s model goes a bit more into the weeds. Here’s a look at the metrics I used to build my correlation model:
Key Metrics Correlated to Success:
- SG: Approach
- SG: Around the Green
- SG: Putting
- SG: Off the Tee
- SG: Ball Striking
- Bogey Avoidance
- P: 10-15 ft
- Driving Distance
- Driving Right Avoid
Shane Lowry +1600 à+1900 (DK +300 Boost)
Last year’s Honda Classic almost made me quit betting on golf. As a Shane Lowry backer, it felt as if the Golf Gods made it storm for five minutes just when Lowry had to tee off to spite me. While the loss wasn’t as bad as Mito Pereira losing the PGA Championship, it felt like a massive loss. Well, I’m back betting on Lowry this week. Lowry is listed as the third golfer in my model, and for good reason. I weighted ball-striking heavily this week. Over the last 36 rounds, Lowry is third in SG: App and fifth in SG: BS. He’s long enough off the tee to be dangerous, and his miss is generally left. A left miss here is the way you want to miss. The forecast seems to be solid, but should the weather change, Lowry can play well in all conditions. After an unfortunate loss, he should be out for blood. With this DraftKings Boost, his odds are more than playable.
Denny McCarthy +2800
After watching Denny McCarthy, aka the best putter in the field, having massive weekend runs at Pebble Beach and the Genesis Invitational, I knew I was betting on him heading into the Honda Classic. McCarthy isn’t highly rated on my model. He’s 40th. Much of that comes from his lack of driving distance and his struggles around the green over his last 36 rounds. He’s struggled off the tee in his last few tournaments. Success for McCarthy this week lies in his ability to keep his ball in the fairway and continue to drain big putts. He has a T3 finish here two seasons ago and a T30 last season. If I had to bet on someone whom I’d want to win this tournament the most, it’s McCarthy.
Hayden Buckley +5500
I’ve brought up course history here multiple times, but I’m not overly focused on Hayden Buckley‘s success here or lack thereof. Buckley is one out of two here without a finish inside the top 50. At this price and Buckley being seventh in my model, I had to bet on him this week. Buckley is the highest-rated golfer in SG: OTT, and when he misses fairways, it’s not by much. He’s the highest-rated ball striker over the last 36 rounds. Buckley’s T2 finish at the Sony Open should provide a bit more confidence for his backers.