We are just a day away from the Sanderson Farm Championship at the Country Club of Jackson in Jackson Mississippi. This course has seen golfers go low and attack it. So far, I’ve made picks to win the tournament and my favorite position bets. Now I am tackling the first-round leader market. I’m targeting guys who are good ball strikers, can make birdies in bunches, and can get hot with the flat stick. There’s some value to be had in this market. I do regret not backing anyone in the first tee time slot, yet none of them fit into my handicap. Here’s a look at the golfers I like to finish with the first-round lead with odds found on BetMGM:
Sahith Theegala +3300
Theegala was last year’s first-round leader, and it wasn’t a fluke. Throughout last season, Theegala had many close calls for FRL. He had a stellar rookie season. He had 11 top 25, five top 10s and one runner-up. He finished T8 here last year and his game fits so well here. Theegala is long off the tee and buries bridies. Watching Theegala through the season last year, he gained confidence. A few poor decisions and errant shots are the only reason he has yet to reach the winner’s podium. He will be a winner soon if it’s not this week, it’s only a matter of time. Once his putter gets going, he’s a menace.
Sepp Straka +5000
Taking Straka FRL and not backing him outright feels a bit wrong, but I think Straka can get off to a fast start. This course was bested by Sam Burns last season who is a great ball striker and a great putter. The same could be said about Straka. Straka had a momentary flash of brilliance at the Honda. He worked hard to prove it wasn’t just one-and-done. After he missed the cut at the Arnold Palmer, then finished ninth at TPC. Then after his third-place finish at RBC, he hit a rough patch. He missed six straight cups and then was battling for the win at St. Jude. He went on to have back-to-back solid tournaments with a T28 at the BMW and T7 at the Tour Championship. His midseason issues are out of the way, and he has an excellent chance to play well here this week.
J.T. Poston +4000
Birdie fest master Poston is in the field, and it’s an absolute must that we back him FRL. Poston absolutely destroys courses that favor birdie machines. Poston is a great putter and even better at scrambling. He destroyed both Travelers and John Deere. When he struggles, it’s generally off the tee. I’m not overly worried about driving prowess this week. Please give me all of the shares of Poston this week.
Russell Henley +4000
I haven’t seen Henley at a tournament in quite some time. It’s probably because he missed the cut at St Jude and had the quietest BMW Championship. He hasn’t putt well for much of the second half of the season. He has gone through spurts of bad-putting performances. Early in the season last year, he had a horrid putting stretch but seemed to correct it and went on to putt very well for the bulk of the season. That’s what pros do; they fix their putting woes. I expect Henley to do the same. Henley is ranked number one in my FRL model.
Keegan Bradley +5000
There aren’t many golfers who get off to hotter starts than Bradley. He’s second on my FRL model; he’s a great ball striker who gains a ton of strokes on approach and loves to get things going early. His biggest flaw is probably his ability to stay strong under pressure. There’s no pressure in the first round. His odds are better than I projected and a must-play at this price.
