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Keeneland takes center stage on a quieter week in the world of horse racing, as humans and horses alike countdown the days to the first Saturday in May and the Kentucky Derby.
Accordingly, there are only two stakes races that will be mentioned below: the G3 Lexington for three-year-olds, and the G1 Jenny Wiley for older fillies and mares on grass.
After fourteen weeks, here is the results tally (records reflective of $2 WIN / $2 WPS):
WIN: 6-43 (14%, -$50.60)
WPS: 24-43 (55.8%, -$76.70)
5:16 ET – KEENELAND R9 – G3 LEXINGTON – 1 1/16 MILES – DIRT
In a race where the favorites all have their flaws, I am most interested in a horse that looks prepared to take a step forward at a big price. STRAVA (8) has paired up career-best Beyer Speed Figures in each of his last two races, typically an indicator that a horse is ready to move up the scale in their subsequent start. Trained by Dallas Steward, the three-year-old son of Into Mischief raced greenly down the lane in an allowance race at the Fair Grounds in February, suggesting he lacked focus. Accordingly, Stewart adds blinkers for the first time in this colt’s career, hopefully unlocking his potential. That allowance race in New Orleans in February produced the winner of the G1 Arkansas Derby, so there is a chance that Strava goes off at an inflated price despite having a legitimate chance at winning. Look for jockey Tyler Gaffalione to have Strava positioned in the first flight of runners on Saturday, hoping to make his move as the field rounds the far turn.
THE PLAY: 8 – STRAVA to win at odds of 9/1 or greater
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5:48 ET – KEENELAND R10 – G1 JENNY WILEY – 1 1/16 MILES – TURF
It may be a small field and trainer Chad Brown looks to hold all the cards, but there is a chance a superstar in the making is entered in this year’s Jenny Wiley. SHANTISARA (3) is already a grade one winner in the United States, winning last year’s QEII at Keeneland, but she may just be scratching the surface of her potential. An Irish-bred who was originally campaigned in France, the four-year-old filly has an otherworldly late kick, making her a handful for any filly or mare to hold off down the lane. While she may be slightly pace compromised in Saturday’s Jenny Wiley, her ability to handle Keeneland’s turf course should not go overlooked for two reasons. First, regardless of talent level, some horses handle Keeneland’s turf and others do not (for whatever reason). Second – and perhaps most importantly long term – the Breeders’ Cup will again be held at Keeneland in the fall. If Shantisara kicks off her 2022 campaign in the fashion I believe she will, not only will she add another grade one to her resume, but she would position herself as one of the best American fillies or mares on grass that could compete in the year-end world championships.
THE PLAY: 3 – SHANTISARA to win at odds of 1/1 or greater
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