Fall Stars weekend at Keeneland Race Course in Lexington, Kentucky is upon us, with six Breeders’ Cup “Win and You’re In” races set to take place on Saturday and Sunday (some of which can be seen on CNBC at 5 PM ET both days).
Of the six WAYI races, I find four of them to be quite appealing from a gambling standpoint.
Below you will find selections from the G2 TCA, the G1 Breeders’ Futurity, the G1 Coolmore Mile, and the G2 Bourbon (taking place on Sunday).
After thirty-seven weeks, here is the results tally (records reflective of $2 WIN / $2 WPS):
WIN: 16-111 (14.4%, -$89.44)
WPS: 56-111 (50.5%, -$192.66)
SATURDAY
4:10 ET – KEENELAND R7 – G2 TCA – 6 FURLONGS – DIRT
CARRIBEAN CAPER (4) disappointed as the favorite in her return to the races at Colonial Downs in mid-August following an absence of nearly eleven months, but she should be given the benefit of the doubt for that effort. Not only was the daughter of Speightstown making her first start off the lengthy layoff, but she was forced to chase a wicked pace that disintegrated, with all the runners on or near the early lead fading badly. With a start under her belt for trainer Al Stall, Jr., the four-year-old filly figures to be a tighter version on Saturday and likely pulls a more favorable trip, stalking what projects to be a hot pace as opposed to contesting it as she did in Virginia over the summer. I’m expecting the best version of Carribean Caper to show up in Saturday’s TCA – a version that has every right to be competitive at a square price.
THE PLAY: 4) CARRIBEAN CAPER TO WIN at odds of 9/2 or greater
5:14 ET – KEENELAND R9 – G1 BREEDERS’ FUTURITY– 1 1/16 MILES – DIRT
Brad Cox is among the best trainers in the United States, and when he thrusts a debut winner into a grade one in just their second lifetime start, he usually means business. LOGGINS (2) could not have been more impressive breaking his maiden at first asking at Churchill Downs on September 17, stalking the pace between rivals before angling to the clear and drawing away for fun beneath jockey Florent Geroux. The two-year-old son of Ghostzapper finished full of run and galloped out around the clubhouse turn with gusto, suggesting the additional ground in Saturday’s Futurity should be to his liking. Here’s a stat to help put things into perspective regarding Cox and a move like this with a horse like this: Past Five Years, Dirt, Maiden Winner Last Out, Second Time Starter, First Route: 4/18 (10 ITM), $1.56 ROI. Those numbers may not blow anyone away, but when the query is narrowed down to races held at Keeneland, the numbers become: 2/4 (3 ITM), $3.75 ROI. Yes, it’s too small a sample size to draw definitive conclusions from. The reason I bring it up? The two runners who won under these circumstances at Keeneland were named Essential Quality and British Idiom – both of whom would go on to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, respectively.
THE PLAY: 2) LOGGINS TO WIN at odds of 5/2 or greater
5:45 ET – KEENELAND R10 – G1 COOLMORE MILE – 1 MILE – TURF
In what is as competitive a race as you’ll ever see, this year’s Coolmore Mile could very well wind up being among the two or three most important prep races leading into the Breeders’ Cup. Legitimate cases can be made for as many as seven of the twelve runners set to travel eight furlongs, but the one that intrigues me the most is one of the three-year-olds taking on elders for the first time in ANNAPOLIS (8). Trained by Todd Pletcher, the son of War Front has never finished worse than second in any of his six lifetime starts, emphasizing how consistent he’s been to date. This mile trip should hit him right between the eyes, and while he’s slower than some of his contemporaries in terms of speed figures, it wouldn’t be unheard of to see a three-year-old step up at this time of year and prove that they belong with the best of the older horses. With the amount of speed entered in the Coolmore Mile, look for jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. to sit a few lengths off the early lead before ratcheting up the pressure as the field rounds the far turn.
THE PLAY: 8) ANNAPOLIS TO WIN at odds of 6/1 or greater
SUNDAY
5:10 ET – KEENELAND R8 – G2 BOURBON – 1 1/16 MILES – TURF
Without a true standout in the field of juveniles going the 1 1/16 miles distance, it’s worth getting a bit creative and looking for an alternative to the shorter prices. Despite losing the Kentucky Downs Juvenile to Reckoning Force (who he’ll face again here), DEER DISTRICT (4) showed enough promise to think a forward move is coming on Sunday. Trained by Dale Romans, the son of Oscar Performance didn’t have the cleanest of runs down the lane at Kentucky Downs last month, needing to alter course a few different times while finishing gamely in the process. That race also happened to be his first try with blinkers on, and some horses can take a step forward in their second start sporting the equipment. Deer District has also (nearly) paired up career-best Beyer Speed Figures in his two turf starts, suggesting he could be ready to take the step required to be a contender in this spot.
THE PLAY: 4) DEER DISTRICT TO WIN at odds of 6/1 or greater